3 ms·
People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.
by softwaredoug 5mo ago
People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.
- Yossarrian22 5mo agoSome say 30% of the time.
- triceratops 5mo agoSurely not all the time.
- Lerc 5mo ago30% of the time it is all of the time.
- BobaFloutist 5mo agoI think given the number of things that can happen with ~30% probability, there's probably something significant happening with ~30% probability at basically all times.
- triceratops 5mo agoI was making a joke but yes that's a good point.
- AnimalMuppet 5mo agoWell, we're talking about elections. You have an election where there's a president, 30 or so governors, 33-34 senators, and 438 representatives. Say a total of 64 major offices, or 500 if you count the representatives. You'd expect a 30% chance to happen in 19 major races, or 150 races if you count the representatives. So in an election, that happens all the time. It just doesn't always happen in the race for president.
- krapp 5mo agoWhere Presidential politics is concerned, I think it's less a case of misunderstanding probabilities and more the success of party propaganda. Every victory is a landslide with a resounding mandate from the populace, every defeat a crushing humiliation and repudiation of your opponent's Unamerican ideals.