3 ms·

News flash: predicting the future is hard

by krupan 5mo ago

energy123 5mo ago
The individual who is the best at predicting the future is predicting ASI and full labor automation by 2040: https://xcancel.com/peterwildeford/status/2029636662322446613 https://xcancel.com/peterwildeford/status/202963666232244661...
- gerikson 5mo ago
  Past results is no guarantee of future performance.
- Aurornis 5mo ago
  > The individual who is the best at predicting the future Going to need a big citation for that claim
  - margalabargala 5mo ago
    Source: trust me bro
  - hirvi74 5mo ago
    No need. That man predicted he would be the best at predicting the future.
- margalabargala 5mo ago
  > The individual who is the best at predicting the future Lol
- layer8 5mo ago
  Predicting who will predict the future best is hard.
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
- dsign 5mo ago
  My own bet is end of that decade: somewhere between 2045 and 2050. Ofc "full labor automation" has a certain spread of meaning. A sliver of population will always find ways to hold to a job or run one or many businesses. But there will be "enough" labor automation for it to be a social ticking bomb. That, in fact, does not depend on better models nor better AI than we have today. By 2045 there will be a couple of generations that has been outsourcing their thinking to AI for most of their adult lives. Some of them may still work as legal flesh of sorts, but many won't get to be middle man and will find no job. Also, if you could replace your senator today by an untainted version of a frontier model (of today), would you do it? Would it be a better ruler? What are the odds of you not wanting to push that button in the next twenty years, after a few more batches of incompetent and self-serving politicians?
  - renticulous 5mo ago
    Complexity of our human world has gone up so much that humanity actually needs something like AI to ensure further progress. It's impossible to expect a human to learn all the fields in a shallow manner (and be a generalist politician) or one field in full depth (ie expert to push the frontier).
- solid_fuel 5mo ago
  > The individual who is the best at predicting the future Yeah well my prophet says he can beat up your prophet in a fight. --- Here in reality, I'm not accustomed to taking random predictions without backing evidence as if they were truth.
- Alex_L_Wood 5mo ago
  I can’t take anyone who puts probability on events like that seriously. How would you even explain the calculations behind that with a straight face?
- FergusArgyll 5mo ago
  Wait till you read his piece about Fordow

News flash: predicting the future is hard

by krupan 5mo ago

News flash: predicting the future is hard

The individual who is the best at predicting the future is predicting ASI and full labor automation by 2040: https://xcancel.com/peterwildeford/status/2029636662322446613 https://xcancel.com/peterwildeford/status/202963666232244661...

gerikson 5mo ago
Past results is no guarantee of future performance.
Aurornis 5mo ago
> The individual who is the best at predicting the future Going to need a big citation for that claim
- margalabargala 5mo ago
  Source: trust me bro
- hirvi74 5mo ago
  No need. That man predicted he would be the best at predicting the future.
margalabargala 5mo ago
> The individual who is the best at predicting the future Lol
layer8 5mo ago
Predicting who will predict the future best is hard.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
dsign 5mo ago
My own bet is end of that decade: somewhere between 2045 and 2050. Ofc "full labor automation" has a certain spread of meaning. A sliver of population will always find ways to hold to a job or run one or many businesses. But there will be "enough" labor automation for it to be a social ticking bomb. That, in fact, does not depend on better models nor better AI than we have today. By 2045 there will be a couple of generations that has been outsourcing their thinking to AI for most of their adult lives. Some of them may still work as legal flesh of sorts, but many won't get to be middle man and will find no job. Also, if you could replace your senator today by an untainted version of a frontier model (of today), would you do it? Would it be a better ruler? What are the odds of you not wanting to push that button in the next twenty years, after a few more batches of incompetent and self-serving politicians?
- renticulous 5mo ago
  Complexity of our human world has gone up so much that humanity actually needs something like AI to ensure further progress. It's impossible to expect a human to learn all the fields in a shallow manner (and be a generalist politician) or one field in full depth (ie expert to push the frontier).
solid_fuel 5mo ago
> The individual who is the best at predicting the future Yeah well my prophet says he can beat up your prophet in a fight. --- Here in reality, I'm not accustomed to taking random predictions without backing evidence as if they were truth.
Alex_L_Wood 5mo ago
I can’t take anyone who puts probability on events like that seriously. How would you even explain the calculations behind that with a straight face?
FergusArgyll 5mo ago
Wait till you read his piece about Fordow