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Hmmm, this is quite an interesting take by Scott. Lindy's Law is not actually a law and many exact minds will be provoked by the very name; it also fails spect

Hmmm, this is quite an interesting take by Scott. Lindy's Law is not actually a law and many exact minds will be provoked by the very name; it also fails spectacularly in certain contexts (e.g. lifetime of a single organism, though not necessarily existence of entire species). But at the same time, I am willing to take its invocation in the context of AI somewhat seriously. There is an international arms race with China, which has less compute, but more engineers and scientists. This sort of intellectual arms race does not exhaust itself easily. A similar space race in the 1950s and 1960s progressed from first unmanned spaceflight to a moonwalk in mere 12 years, which is probably less than what it takes to approve a bicycle lane in Chicago now.

krupan 5mo ago
"There is an international arms race with China" I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI? Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death situation.
- inglor_cz 5mo ago
  It was a metaphor. I meant, and later clarified, an intellectual arms race. BTW your handle is an actual Czech word, minus a diacritic sign ("křupan"), and a bit amusing one. It basically means hillbilly. Not that it matters, just FYI. Anyway: AI will be used in military context, and it probably already is. Both for target acquisition and maybe even driving the weapon itself. As of now, the Ukrainians are almost certainly operating some AI-enabled killer drones.
  - krupan 5mo ago
    That's funny, I was told my real last name is a swear word in Czech
    - inglor_cz 5mo ago
      Yeah, but a relatively mild one as far as the spectrum of Slavic curses go. You would be a "křupan" if you wore agricultural boots to a fancy restaurant, or talk to a lady in an uncultured way. Basically, a hickey who was never taught proper manners.
- dmbche 5mo ago
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/25/why-the-us-china-ai-arms-race-is-entering-a-critical-new-phase/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/25/wh...
- aspenmartin 5mo ago
  AI in war is like Palintirs whole business model. You have a system that can effectively deal with ambiguity and has superhuman performance on reasoning plus superhuman physical abilities via embodiment… Inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance is also quite the feature of human beings as well.
mitthrowaway2 5mo ago
It's not a law per se, but there are rules for reasoning under uncertainty to get the most out of what limited knowledge you have, and Lindy's law arises from that. To do better than Lindy's law requires having additional information about the problem beyond just the one data point.

krupan 5mo ago

"There is an international arms race with China" I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI? Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death situation.

inglor_cz 5mo ago
It was a metaphor. I meant, and later clarified, an intellectual arms race. BTW your handle is an actual Czech word, minus a diacritic sign ("křupan"), and a bit amusing one. It basically means hillbilly. Not that it matters, just FYI. Anyway: AI will be used in military context, and it probably already is. Both for target acquisition and maybe even driving the weapon itself. As of now, the Ukrainians are almost certainly operating some AI-enabled killer drones.
- krupan 5mo ago
  That's funny, I was told my real last name is a swear word in Czech
  - inglor_cz 5mo ago
    Yeah, but a relatively mild one as far as the spectrum of Slavic curses go. You would be a "křupan" if you wore agricultural boots to a fancy restaurant, or talk to a lady in an uncultured way. Basically, a hickey who was never taught proper manners.
dmbche 5mo ago
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/25/why-the-us-china-ai-arms-race-is-entering-a-critical-new-phase/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/25/wh...
aspenmartin 5mo ago
AI in war is like Palintirs whole business model. You have a system that can effectively deal with ambiguity and has superhuman performance on reasoning plus superhuman physical abilities via embodiment… Inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance is also quite the feature of human beings as well.

mitthrowaway2 5mo ago

It's not a law per se, but there are rules for reasoning under uncertainty to get the most out of what limited knowledge you have, and Lindy's law arises from that. To do better than Lindy's law requires having additional information about the problem beyond just the one data point.