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This reads like Apple fanfiction to me. > But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rat

This reads like Apple fanfiction to me. > But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it. I have to think that the RAM suppliers wouldn't be that easy to intimidate with threats, since they know perfectly well how few alternatives Apple has. And they are also perfectly aware that Apple will play hardball with them when the market turns, regardless of whether they were nice to Apple now.

coredog64 5mo ago
Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.
- ls65536 5mo ago
  They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.
  - mlindner 5mo ago
    SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.
    - bee_rider 5mo ago
      We don’t know if SpaceX’s plan will actually work, they announced it this year and it is a long-timeline Musk project. These have… mixed results.
    - UqWBcuFx6NV4r 5mo ago
      yeah. right after tesla self-driving.
    - fhn 5mo ago
      that's crazy. Looks like Intel is part of this https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-join-musks-terafab-mega-ai-chip-project-2026-04-07/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-...
      - rswail 5mo ago
        Part of the trump bullshit that the USGov has taken 10% of Intel. It's actual corruption and the standard fascist model of corporate takeover by the state.
    - shye 5mo ago
      They can’t. Operating a FAB requires employing PhDs that are willing to work 8 hours shifts with no breaks (each removal of a bunnysuit is an expensive exercise), and there’s no reason to believe SpaceX is capable of hiring such people.
      - CuriousRose 5mo ago
        There was a point made recently by Musk that the whole clean room idea is outdated if you can just ensure the path the silicon takes from wafer to lidding is clean. Seems solvable to me, but leaves me wondering why it hasn’t been done before. I assume there is no human handling of raw/etched silicon now anyway, so why does the whole room need to be clean?
        deadfoxygrandpa 5mo ago
        hmm yeah. its cool that musk knows more about this than the entire industry
        CuriousRose 5mo ago
        You could probably apply that logic to any innovation in any industry no? Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles. I can understand that Musk does not have the most palatable personality, but floating ideas and at least attempting innovation regardless of outcome over a long time is a net positive for society and should not be discouraged.
        khriss 5mo ago
        > self driving Aren't we still waiting for that?
        CamperBob2 5mo ago
        Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles. In those areas, Musk successfully leveraged government largesse to compete with fat, lazy incumbents who had either coasted for decades (rockets and satellite Internet) or who didn't bother to show up to the game (EVs, self-driving and otherwise.) That does not describe the semiconductor industry. Musk has never beaten anybody who actually put up a fight, as far as I'm aware. I guess Blue Origin technically counts, but again that's not exactly TSMC.
    - rswail 5mo ago
      You've got to wonder why. It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips. The "integration" of SpaceX/xAI is just standard Musk-move-losses-to-the-company-making-money-at-the-moment bullshit. Apple actually have the runs on the board, xAI has Musk-BS.
      - Kon5ole 5mo ago
        >It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips. The initial investment in chip fabs is so big it can't be justified when the established players already make enough to satisfy demand, but right now they don't so there's an opportunity. It's still risky for sure but it makes some sense that it happens now. Hyperscalers spend 100s of billions yearly, at some point the amount given to TSMC gets larger than starting your own fab. If success was guaranteed (it's not, as AMD and several others have learned) I think many more co's would start their own fabs in the current market. As for why xAI, well why not - many of the others who can afford a fabbing attempt can't risk getting on TSMC's bad side even for a year or two.
        Danox 5mo ago
        The Chinese will be the one slipping in because of this opportunity. The question is is whether or not you still want to be dependent on outside memory when the Chinese takeover a larger part of the worldwide market?
  - zarzavat 5mo ago
    No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this. Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.
    - riffraff 5mo ago
      RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive. Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?
      - zarzavat 5mo ago
        The risks are not symmetric. If the RAM crisis becomes the new normal it threatens Apple's business model which requires large quantities of RAM. On the other hand, if Apple invests in RAM production and prices fall, it's not like the investment is wasted, RAM is a commodity. They lose at worst the opportunity cost of deploying the capital inefficiently, but they have so much that it hardly matters. Apple should take this crisis as a warning that they aren't vertically integrated enough to protect their business model. As for batteries, Apple is not even close to the largest consumer of batteries. If they were an electric car company then yes they should be making their own batteries.
      - Danox 5mo ago
        That’s a decision for the new CEO (thank God he’s a technocrat), more than likely Tim Cook, and John Ternus) probably have already decided on what they’re gonna do long-term, from the outside looking in Apple has already replaced five companies? In recent times. Memory is well within Apples design and Engineering capability. Long-term, Apple has to think about the Chinese getting a bigger part of the market in memory because they can undercut the three company cartel worldwide in time with this fake AI memory crisis.
  - Danox 5mo ago
    Apple in the same timeframe also bought Intrinsity, and Anobit (a flash/SSD memory) company the Apple Silicon design group probably can do the design and engineering in house and we know they have the money the question is do they have the will their history says they do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anobit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anobit
- GeekyBear 5mo ago
  In the Tim Cook era when Apple needs to lock down the supply of a commodity part, they have a history of buying a dedicated manufacturing line for a manufacturing partner.
- cmcclellan 5mo ago
  It's crazy to think Apple would actually fab memory (or TSMC for that matter). It's an entirely different process than logic.
- astrange 5mo ago
  DRAM fabs are their own well-known specialized process which is covered by the DRAM companies. It doesn't make sense to start a competitor for it.
  - kristianp 5mo ago
    There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.
    - shye 5mo ago
      Apple never bought a manufacturer, or built such capabilities. They buy and build manufacturing capacity, and there’s also a huge shortage in that today.
    - pixl97 5mo ago
      China is playing a totally different game here. Can a US company by a Chinese company... no. Number one, China won't let them. Number 2, China is building up these companies as a strategic reserve against the US/Korea for when they eventually go to war. So, yea, eventually the US will ban any imports of memory from those companies which would turn it into a toxic asset for Apple.
  - laughing_man 5mo ago
    Which is funny, since until relatively recently DRAM was what you produced in fabs with processes that weren't competitive enough for CPUs anymore.
- laughing_man 5mo ago
  They probably could, but time is a big factor.
colechristensen 5mo ago
Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed. They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-121322295.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-12... The original article is baseless speculation proven wrong by news announced in February.
- brailsafe 5mo ago
  > Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Hardly. While it may be fan fiction, or speculation, Horace has been researching and writing about Apple's operations for decades. I tried listening to his podcast years ago and the discussion at the time of Apple's supply chain movements was extremely detailed to the point where it wasn't even listenable for me. "Our team has over 25 years of daily research on Apple Inc" https://asymco.com/about/ https://asymco.com/about/ It's literally all they do
Danox 5mo ago
Ask Intel, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Samsung chip division and soon to be replaced Qualcomm, Apples SOC designs, probably meant memory was coming in house at some point down the road anyway. The present market conditions will probably just hasten the inevitable move. After all, how does one miniaturize future SOC devices if you don’t bring memory in the house eventually?

coredog64 5mo ago

Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.

ls65536 5mo ago
They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.
- mlindner 5mo ago
  SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.
  - bee_rider 5mo ago
    We don’t know if SpaceX’s plan will actually work, they announced it this year and it is a long-timeline Musk project. These have… mixed results.
  - UqWBcuFx6NV4r 5mo ago
    yeah. right after tesla self-driving.
  - fhn 5mo ago
    that's crazy. Looks like Intel is part of this https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-join-musks-terafab-mega-ai-chip-project-2026-04-07/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-...
    - rswail 5mo ago
      Part of the trump bullshit that the USGov has taken 10% of Intel. It's actual corruption and the standard fascist model of corporate takeover by the state.
  - shye 5mo ago
    They can’t. Operating a FAB requires employing PhDs that are willing to work 8 hours shifts with no breaks (each removal of a bunnysuit is an expensive exercise), and there’s no reason to believe SpaceX is capable of hiring such people.
    - CuriousRose 5mo ago
      There was a point made recently by Musk that the whole clean room idea is outdated if you can just ensure the path the silicon takes from wafer to lidding is clean. Seems solvable to me, but leaves me wondering why it hasn’t been done before. I assume there is no human handling of raw/etched silicon now anyway, so why does the whole room need to be clean?
      - deadfoxygrandpa 5mo ago
        hmm yeah. its cool that musk knows more about this than the entire industry
        CuriousRose 5mo ago
        You could probably apply that logic to any innovation in any industry no? Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles. I can understand that Musk does not have the most palatable personality, but floating ideas and at least attempting innovation regardless of outcome over a long time is a net positive for society and should not be discouraged.
        khriss 5mo ago
        > self driving Aren't we still waiting for that?
        CamperBob2 5mo ago
        Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles. In those areas, Musk successfully leveraged government largesse to compete with fat, lazy incumbents who had either coasted for decades (rockets and satellite Internet) or who didn't bother to show up to the game (EVs, self-driving and otherwise.) That does not describe the semiconductor industry. Musk has never beaten anybody who actually put up a fight, as far as I'm aware. I guess Blue Origin technically counts, but again that's not exactly TSMC.
  - rswail 5mo ago
    You've got to wonder why. It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips. The "integration" of SpaceX/xAI is just standard Musk-move-losses-to-the-company-making-money-at-the-moment bullshit. Apple actually have the runs on the board, xAI has Musk-BS.
    - Kon5ole 5mo ago
      >It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips. The initial investment in chip fabs is so big it can't be justified when the established players already make enough to satisfy demand, but right now they don't so there's an opportunity. It's still risky for sure but it makes some sense that it happens now. Hyperscalers spend 100s of billions yearly, at some point the amount given to TSMC gets larger than starting your own fab. If success was guaranteed (it's not, as AMD and several others have learned) I think many more co's would start their own fabs in the current market. As for why xAI, well why not - many of the others who can afford a fabbing attempt can't risk getting on TSMC's bad side even for a year or two.
      - Danox 5mo ago
        The Chinese will be the one slipping in because of this opportunity. The question is is whether or not you still want to be dependent on outside memory when the Chinese takeover a larger part of the worldwide market?
- zarzavat 5mo ago
  No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this. Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.
  - riffraff 5mo ago
    RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive. Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?
    - zarzavat 5mo ago
      The risks are not symmetric. If the RAM crisis becomes the new normal it threatens Apple's business model which requires large quantities of RAM. On the other hand, if Apple invests in RAM production and prices fall, it's not like the investment is wasted, RAM is a commodity. They lose at worst the opportunity cost of deploying the capital inefficiently, but they have so much that it hardly matters. Apple should take this crisis as a warning that they aren't vertically integrated enough to protect their business model. As for batteries, Apple is not even close to the largest consumer of batteries. If they were an electric car company then yes they should be making their own batteries.
    - Danox 5mo ago
      That’s a decision for the new CEO (thank God he’s a technocrat), more than likely Tim Cook, and John Ternus) probably have already decided on what they’re gonna do long-term, from the outside looking in Apple has already replaced five companies? In recent times. Memory is well within Apples design and Engineering capability. Long-term, Apple has to think about the Chinese getting a bigger part of the market in memory because they can undercut the three company cartel worldwide in time with this fake AI memory crisis.
- Danox 5mo ago
  Apple in the same timeframe also bought Intrinsity, and Anobit (a flash/SSD memory) company the Apple Silicon design group probably can do the design and engineering in house and we know they have the money the question is do they have the will their history says they do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anobit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anobit
GeekyBear 5mo ago
In the Tim Cook era when Apple needs to lock down the supply of a commodity part, they have a history of buying a dedicated manufacturing line for a manufacturing partner.
cmcclellan 5mo ago
It's crazy to think Apple would actually fab memory (or TSMC for that matter). It's an entirely different process than logic.
astrange 5mo ago
DRAM fabs are their own well-known specialized process which is covered by the DRAM companies. It doesn't make sense to start a competitor for it.
- kristianp 5mo ago
  There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.
  - shye 5mo ago
    Apple never bought a manufacturer, or built such capabilities. They buy and build manufacturing capacity, and there’s also a huge shortage in that today.
  - pixl97 5mo ago
    China is playing a totally different game here. Can a US company by a Chinese company... no. Number one, China won't let them. Number 2, China is building up these companies as a strategic reserve against the US/Korea for when they eventually go to war. So, yea, eventually the US will ban any imports of memory from those companies which would turn it into a toxic asset for Apple.
- laughing_man 5mo ago
  Which is funny, since until relatively recently DRAM was what you produced in fabs with processes that weren't competitive enough for CPUs anymore.
laughing_man 5mo ago
They probably could, but time is a big factor.

colechristensen 5mo ago

Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed. They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-121322295.html?guccounter=1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-12... The original article is baseless speculation proven wrong by news announced in February.

brailsafe 5mo ago
> Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Hardly. While it may be fan fiction, or speculation, Horace has been researching and writing about Apple's operations for decades. I tried listening to his podcast years ago and the discussion at the time of Apple's supply chain movements was extremely detailed to the point where it wasn't even listenable for me. "Our team has over 25 years of daily research on Apple Inc" https://asymco.com/about/ https://asymco.com/about/ It's literally all they do

Danox 5mo ago

Ask Intel, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Samsung chip division and soon to be replaced Qualcomm, Apples SOC designs, probably meant memory was coming in house at some point down the road anyway. The present market conditions will probably just hasten the inevitable move. After all, how does one miniaturize future SOC devices if you don’t bring memory in the house eventually?