4 ms·

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing

by bluGill 6mo ago

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

mghackerlady 6mo ago
China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub
- Ekaros 6mo ago
  Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.
  - mghackerlady 6mo ago
    they've made everyone very angry at them, and can handle that since everyone relies on them. China, however, is trying to build that trust and forcefully taking Taiwan would have very severe consequences. The reason the fallout from iran isn't as big as the fallout from a war with taiwan is because most of the west at most puts up with iran. Invading taiwan, meanwhile, would cause massive problems with chip production. Think the anger and distrust towards the US due to hormuz but 1,000 times worse
    - chrisco255 6mo ago
      The difference is Iran is a terrorist regime that murders its own citizens and funds violence across the middle east.
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
      - mghackerlady 6mo ago
        so is the us, both are put up with because they control global trade to a degree
  - jasondigitized 6mo ago
    The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.
    - lukan 6mo ago
      More like a draw it seems.
      - esseph 6mo ago
        Definitely not. Iran did billions in damage across the middle east, put a major dent in munitions stockpiles, and there is effectively no military way to shut down all of Iran and protect shipping. Too many drones, too many ballistic missiles, and it only takes one. This is basically like an insurgency on a macro level, where small and cheap weapons threaten very large very expensive targets.
        chrisco255 6mo ago
        Iran is completely blockaded right now: https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade-of-iran-67-commercial-ships-redirected-15-humanitarian-passed-war-trump-troops-aircraft-oil-ceasefire https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade... The drones are useless if you dont have targeting systems which were taken offline by F35s 2 months ago.
        esseph 6mo ago
        Blocking Iran is going to do more damage to the world than it will do to Iran. What targeting systems are you talking about? You can use optical targeting with a raspberry PI in the drone itself, pre programmed. Nothing for an F-35 to take out. The EU is running out of jet fuel. 20-30% of the hydrogen needed for chip fab comes through the straight. Fertilizer for food comes through the straight, and planting season has already begun. This was a political and economic disaster.
        tick_tock_tick 6mo ago
- ckemere 6mo ago
  > and both sides want it to a degree Is "it" the propaganda (useful to politicians for achieving political power) or reunification? My sense is that the number of Taiwanese that are enthusiastic about reunification has probably bottomed out in recent decade(s)???
  - mghackerlady 6mo ago
    reunification. Yes, they've bottomed out as younger generations become more politically relevant but they still exist
- evdubs 6mo ago
  > would be the worst geopolitical move of the century From a political perspective, perhaps. > doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do From a military perspective, taking Taiwan by force would allow China to, "threaten the sea lines of communication and to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is unlikely to otherwise be able to do." Taiwan would give China access to the Philippine Sea. https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf
- esseph 6mo ago
  Everything their military has been doing for the past ~20yr or so has been toward capturing and securing Chinese waters and beyond, including Taiwan. It's a negotiating chip for them. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/ https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...
- ngruhn 6mo ago
  > but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.
  - chrisco255 6mo ago
    Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.
    - unethical_ban 6mo ago
      But we threatened to annex it.
    - ngruhn 6mo ago
      But threat to annex is what's happening.
  - mghackerlady 6mo ago
    Chinas power structure is misunderstood. Theres a small number of hands, yes, but they don't change quickly and actually understand how to play geopolitics
- Danox 6mo ago
  Or the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor which was another dumb move. At this point, the Chinese just need to bide their time by the year 2100 Taiwan will probably be part of China and North and South Korea probably will be reunified. Both are inevitable, and I don’t think it will take any shots went it happens.
- bawolff 6mo ago
  China seems to be recently building up its forces and putting a lot of money into military. I think it would be foolish to just assume its all for show even if it might be in the end. And quite frankly, its only geopolitically stupid if they lose. Consequences for this sort of thing usually tend to happen if the conflict is long and drawn out. If the win quickly the consequences would likely be minor.
cjbgkagh 6mo ago
Don’t take China on face value, they have every incentive to promote a grifting military industrial complex in the US while focusing on competing in manufacturing. An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests. Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.
- bluGill 6mo ago
  I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.
  - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
    I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gifting elements in our political leadership are more than happy to play along. I'm sure China would like to take Taiwan if it wouldn't cost them anything, but the US is a waning hegemony so for now it is better to wait until the US is beyond fixing itself. At this rate that may not take long.
    - bluGill 6mo ago
      Unfortunately if you are wrong it is an even worse disaster and so if there is any possibility we are all forced to play their game.
      - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
        A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran. The disastrous reality of doing what was done is already with us. If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term, if it made a real attempt at re-shoring civilian manufacturing it could cross subsidise dual use technology, but instead we have corrupt politicians doling out concessions for kickbacks.

by bluGill 6mo ago

mghackerlady 6mo ago

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

Ekaros 6mo ago
Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.
- mghackerlady 6mo ago
  they've made everyone very angry at them, and can handle that since everyone relies on them. China, however, is trying to build that trust and forcefully taking Taiwan would have very severe consequences. The reason the fallout from iran isn't as big as the fallout from a war with taiwan is because most of the west at most puts up with iran. Invading taiwan, meanwhile, would cause massive problems with chip production. Think the anger and distrust towards the US due to hormuz but 1,000 times worse
  - chrisco255 6mo ago
    The difference is Iran is a terrorist regime that murders its own citizens and funds violence across the middle east.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - mghackerlady 6mo ago
      so is the us, both are put up with because they control global trade to a degree
- jasondigitized 6mo ago
  The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.
  - lukan 6mo ago
    More like a draw it seems.
    - esseph 6mo ago
      Definitely not. Iran did billions in damage across the middle east, put a major dent in munitions stockpiles, and there is effectively no military way to shut down all of Iran and protect shipping. Too many drones, too many ballistic missiles, and it only takes one. This is basically like an insurgency on a macro level, where small and cheap weapons threaten very large very expensive targets.
      - chrisco255 6mo ago
        Iran is completely blockaded right now: https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade-of-iran-67-commercial-ships-redirected-15-humanitarian-passed-war-trump-troops-aircraft-oil-ceasefire https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade... The drones are useless if you dont have targeting systems which were taken offline by F35s 2 months ago.
        esseph 6mo ago
        Blocking Iran is going to do more damage to the world than it will do to Iran. What targeting systems are you talking about? You can use optical targeting with a raspberry PI in the drone itself, pre programmed. Nothing for an F-35 to take out. The EU is running out of jet fuel. 20-30% of the hydrogen needed for chip fab comes through the straight. Fertilizer for food comes through the straight, and planting season has already begun. This was a political and economic disaster.
      - tick_tock_tick 6mo ago
ckemere 6mo ago
> and both sides want it to a degree Is "it" the propaganda (useful to politicians for achieving political power) or reunification? My sense is that the number of Taiwanese that are enthusiastic about reunification has probably bottomed out in recent decade(s)???
- mghackerlady 6mo ago
  reunification. Yes, they've bottomed out as younger generations become more politically relevant but they still exist
evdubs 6mo ago
> would be the worst geopolitical move of the century From a political perspective, perhaps. > doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do From a military perspective, taking Taiwan by force would allow China to, "threaten the sea lines of communication and to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is unlikely to otherwise be able to do." Taiwan would give China access to the Philippine Sea. https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf
esseph 6mo ago
Everything their military has been doing for the past ~20yr or so has been toward capturing and securing Chinese waters and beyond, including Taiwan. It's a negotiating chip for them. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/ https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...
ngruhn 6mo ago
> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.
- chrisco255 6mo ago
  Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.
  - unethical_ban 6mo ago
    But we threatened to annex it.
  - ngruhn 6mo ago
    But threat to annex is what's happening.
- mghackerlady 6mo ago
  Chinas power structure is misunderstood. Theres a small number of hands, yes, but they don't change quickly and actually understand how to play geopolitics
Danox 6mo ago
Or the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor which was another dumb move. At this point, the Chinese just need to bide their time by the year 2100 Taiwan will probably be part of China and North and South Korea probably will be reunified. Both are inevitable, and I don’t think it will take any shots went it happens.
bawolff 6mo ago
China seems to be recently building up its forces and putting a lot of money into military. I think it would be foolish to just assume its all for show even if it might be in the end. And quite frankly, its only geopolitically stupid if they lose. Consequences for this sort of thing usually tend to happen if the conflict is long and drawn out. If the win quickly the consequences would likely be minor.

cjbgkagh 6mo ago

Don’t take China on face value, they have every incentive to promote a grifting military industrial complex in the US while focusing on competing in manufacturing. An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests. Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.

bluGill 6mo ago
I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.
- cjbgkagh 6mo ago
  I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gifting elements in our political leadership are more than happy to play along. I'm sure China would like to take Taiwan if it wouldn't cost them anything, but the US is a waning hegemony so for now it is better to wait until the US is beyond fixing itself. At this rate that may not take long.
  - bluGill 6mo ago
    Unfortunately if you are wrong it is an even worse disaster and so if there is any possibility we are all forced to play their game.
    - cjbgkagh 6mo ago
      A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran. The disastrous reality of doing what was done is already with us. If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term, if it made a real attempt at re-shoring civilian manufacturing it could cross subsidise dual use technology, but instead we have corrupt politicians doling out concessions for kickbacks.