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now imagine this going on through January 2029 if Dems don't win the Senate too because it took YEARS for Obama's team to get them to sign something and he's

by ck2 5mo ago

now imagine this going on through January 2029 if Dems don't win the Senate too because it took YEARS for Obama's team to get them to sign something and he's already used up half of US war stockpiles Iran's dictators will eat and sleep just fine for years while their people starve and get bombed to death click on YTD here and imagine that flat-line for YEARS https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-number-of-ships-and-transit-volume https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...

timoshishi 5mo ago
I would imagine that other powers of the world would support some kind of invasion if the strait were to remain closed for a long period of time
- phatfish 5mo ago
  Or they finally tell Trump to fuck off as he as no tariff leverage any more as their economies are cooked anyway? It is funny watching economies like Japan -- where their new prime minister was fluffing Trump like crazy -- get fully screwed.
- cyberlurker 5mo ago
  They will just pay the toll.
  - twodave 5mo ago
    It's possible, in the short term, but eventually the only oil flowing thru the Strait of Hormuz will be Iranian oil, and perhaps not even that. Give countries enough time and they'll rather invest in building a way around Iran than giving them money for passage thru international waters.
    - csomar 5mo ago
      The toll will be just a bit under what it would cost to divert the supply.
      - twodave 5mo ago
        Well even today you have the UAE and Qatar warning them not to do this. It’s likely to me that the fighting won’t stop until the situation is different, even if the US were to pull out today.
- mullingitover 5mo ago
  They might support it in spirit, but an actual invasion of the US would be pretty difficult to pull off. I can see sanctions though, maybe a re-shuffling of alliances where China becomes the world's default Adult In The Room.
AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
Given what has happened, I don't think Iran's dictators are going to be sleeping just fine for a while.
- actionfromafar 5mo ago
  They have more dictators in store it seems.

by ck2 5mo ago

timoshishi 5mo ago

I would imagine that other powers of the world would support some kind of invasion if the strait were to remain closed for a long period of time

phatfish 5mo ago
Or they finally tell Trump to fuck off as he as no tariff leverage any more as their economies are cooked anyway? It is funny watching economies like Japan -- where their new prime minister was fluffing Trump like crazy -- get fully screwed.
cyberlurker 5mo ago
They will just pay the toll.
- twodave 5mo ago
  It's possible, in the short term, but eventually the only oil flowing thru the Strait of Hormuz will be Iranian oil, and perhaps not even that. Give countries enough time and they'll rather invest in building a way around Iran than giving them money for passage thru international waters.
  - csomar 5mo ago
    The toll will be just a bit under what it would cost to divert the supply.
    - twodave 5mo ago
      Well even today you have the UAE and Qatar warning them not to do this. It’s likely to me that the fighting won’t stop until the situation is different, even if the US were to pull out today.
mullingitover 5mo ago
They might support it in spirit, but an actual invasion of the US would be pretty difficult to pull off. I can see sanctions though, maybe a re-shuffling of alliances where China becomes the world's default Adult In The Room.

AnimalMuppet 5mo ago

Given what has happened, I don't think Iran's dictators are going to be sleeping just fine for a while.

actionfromafar 5mo ago
They have more dictators in store it seems.