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I think there's some kind of fallacy where you can look at five drugs, all of which came from a pool of 100 promising candidates, then look at the next 100 cand
by whatshisface 5mo ago
I think there's some kind of fallacy where you can look at five drugs, all of which came from a pool of 100 promising candidates, then look at the next 100 candidates and say for each one individually that it is not worth celebrating. I call it the, "rounding to zero" fallacy.
In reality, if you have 100 5% chances of a cure for a previously incurable illness, you can celebrate each chance a lot.
- bawolff 5mo ago> In reality, if you have 100 5% chances of a cure for a previously incurable illness, you can celebrate each chance a lot. These numbers are obviously entirely made up, but its worth noting that 100 5% chances of a cure, means you have at least 1 cure with (1-(.95)^100) = 99.4% probability. If you are curing an incurable disease with 99.4% probability, celebrating a lot would be an understatement.
- whatshisface 5mo agoIn this example, they're all different diseases.