4 ms·

Yes, but during those transformations, the CEOs of the companies selling the products involved weren't actively and aggressively marketing them as being able to

by danaris 5mo ago

Yes, but during those transformations, the CEOs of the companies selling the products involved weren't actively and aggressively marketing them as being able to replace all the humans they employ. You can't have it both ways: either LLMs are an amazing, revolutionary technology that can replace many human jobs in unprecedented ways, or it's going to be a mild transition that really only helps people.

zamadatix 5mo ago
It isn't the first time a new technology has been pitched to replace many worker's jobs, both successful and unsuccessful versions of the promise have come to pass several times. I think what they are saying is "that something can replace a job does not inherently imply the next step is poverty". From that perspective, you can absolutely have it both (and many other combinations of) ways.
Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
[flagged]
- jklinger410 5mo ago
  Why don't you show us how AI will not create abject poverty? How are we not going to be begging whoever controls chip fabs and electrical plants for compute tokens? HOW!? EXPLAIN IT.
  - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      > Settle down, toddler Please don’t do this.
      - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > You want people to stick to social norms, call it both ways Oh, I downvoted both of you. But I only flagged you because of the name calling, which is against the guidelines [1]. When I flag I like to give the person on the other side a note, in case they genuinely didn’t know. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
    - whatshisface 5mo ago
      How would improved standards and reliability make the AI alternative to white collar jobs less appealing?
      - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
        whatshisface 5mo ago
        Quality standards benefit the buyers, who on the face of it are corporations replacing representative's constituents with capital investments not made in their districts, not the constituents themselves. I would expect there to be support for limiting quality somehow, maybe by enforcing copyright law (actually legal training datasets are a lot harder to obtain). Regulatory burdens do obstruct commercial investment, but the burden primarily falls on small participants who in the AI market are far from posing a threat to employment. Only the largest firms can threaten the wage and salary model of organization.
    - jklinger410 5mo ago
      > you all didn't do the political action work to put me on the hook for your healthcare so thoughts and prayers, HNers. Ah so your answer is AI will cause most people to live in abject poverty. Good talk.
      - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
        AI makes enough stuff no need to care about money. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48099117 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48099117 But go ahead and commit to the dogma money must continue to exist even though the financial system is merely a socialized ethno object not immutable physics. I forget my lived experience is atypical among engineers. Before getting an EE degree (which I have not leveraged in over a decade tbf) I worked to live in ruralandia fixing old tractors electrical issues for poor farmers (which turned me on to EE), building barns, homes, rebuilding cars, growing crops, slaughtering livestock for food. I also play 3 musical instruments fluently. I have a shit ton of experience and muscle memory for doing without money. Get good scrub? Do not put all your eggs in a single skills basket. End of day you aren't in a soup kitchen feeding the hungry and exploiting child labor to avoid sewing a shirt. I guess you get what you give, right? :shrug: Guess you all should not have ignored politics this entire time. Live and learn. Thoughts and prayers, fellow Americans.
- pesus 5mo ago
  How am I going to do any of that when I can't pay the bills and become homeless? That's what actually happens when you don't have jobs.
  - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
    At this point money is essentially a social construct. None of the billionaires have a Scrooge McDuck vault full of gold coins. Think ST:TNG; automation makes enough stuff. Why worry about money? So focus on political action then; log off this VC funded freebie intended to ameliorate your feelings about the rich owners and operators of this site, and do like they do; tell government to make things right by you or we replace government. You think PG is sitting on the sidelines letting Congress figure out themselves? He's putting his thumb on the scale through his actions through social networking with politicians. Gotta leave the basement and do the work Americans are heavily propagandized and naive af. So exhausted by educated morons.
    - y8lylylg 5mo ago
      yes thank god for visionaries like you who use fictional tv shows as a reference for their politics. the final frontier is what is inside your head.
- Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
  From what I can find online there is $12 billion in mortgages outstanding in the US[1] ICE has an $80 billion budget. Demand Congress pay off mortgages rather than hand Leon Skum tens of billions. There you go. Stability. [1] https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/nmdb-outstanding-residential-mortgage-statistics https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/nmdb-outstanding-residen...
  - HanayamaTriplet 5mo ago
    That says $12,000 billion, not $12 billion. (Aside from the question of paying off mortgages being a good idea or not.)
madaxe_again 5mo ago
That was exactly what a great many things were marketed as, such as the jacquard loom and dynamite. What actually happened in each case was that employment went up for a good long while, as the efficiency boost to the sectors touched made investment far more viable. Eventually successive rounds of automation did reduce employment in each of weaving and mining, but it wasn’t an overnight catastrophe as initially advertised or feared.
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> the CEOs of the companies selling the products involved weren't actively and aggressively marketing them as being able to replace all the humans they employ The assembly line was explicitly about replacing skilled with relatively unskilled labor.

by danaris 5mo ago

zamadatix 5mo ago

It isn't the first time a new technology has been pitched to replace many worker's jobs, both successful and unsuccessful versions of the promise have come to pass several times. I think what they are saying is "that something can replace a job does not inherently imply the next step is poverty". From that perspective, you can absolutely have it both (and many other combinations of) ways.

Sh0000reZ 5mo ago

[flagged]

jklinger410 5mo ago
Why don't you show us how AI will not create abject poverty? How are we not going to be begging whoever controls chip fabs and electrical plants for compute tokens? HOW!? EXPLAIN IT.
- Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > Settle down, toddler Please don’t do this.
    - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
      [flagged]
      - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > You want people to stick to social norms, call it both ways Oh, I downvoted both of you. But I only flagged you because of the name calling, which is against the guidelines [1]. When I flag I like to give the person on the other side a note, in case they genuinely didn’t know. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
  - whatshisface 5mo ago
    How would improved standards and reliability make the AI alternative to white collar jobs less appealing?
    - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
      [flagged]
      - whatshisface 5mo ago
        Quality standards benefit the buyers, who on the face of it are corporations replacing representative's constituents with capital investments not made in their districts, not the constituents themselves. I would expect there to be support for limiting quality somehow, maybe by enforcing copyright law (actually legal training datasets are a lot harder to obtain). Regulatory burdens do obstruct commercial investment, but the burden primarily falls on small participants who in the AI market are far from posing a threat to employment. Only the largest firms can threaten the wage and salary model of organization.
  - jklinger410 5mo ago
    > you all didn't do the political action work to put me on the hook for your healthcare so thoughts and prayers, HNers. Ah so your answer is AI will cause most people to live in abject poverty. Good talk.
    - Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
      AI makes enough stuff no need to care about money. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48099117 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48099117 But go ahead and commit to the dogma money must continue to exist even though the financial system is merely a socialized ethno object not immutable physics. I forget my lived experience is atypical among engineers. Before getting an EE degree (which I have not leveraged in over a decade tbf) I worked to live in ruralandia fixing old tractors electrical issues for poor farmers (which turned me on to EE), building barns, homes, rebuilding cars, growing crops, slaughtering livestock for food. I also play 3 musical instruments fluently. I have a shit ton of experience and muscle memory for doing without money. Get good scrub? Do not put all your eggs in a single skills basket. End of day you aren't in a soup kitchen feeding the hungry and exploiting child labor to avoid sewing a shirt. I guess you get what you give, right? :shrug: Guess you all should not have ignored politics this entire time. Live and learn. Thoughts and prayers, fellow Americans.
pesus 5mo ago
How am I going to do any of that when I can't pay the bills and become homeless? That's what actually happens when you don't have jobs.
- Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
  At this point money is essentially a social construct. None of the billionaires have a Scrooge McDuck vault full of gold coins. Think ST:TNG; automation makes enough stuff. Why worry about money? So focus on political action then; log off this VC funded freebie intended to ameliorate your feelings about the rich owners and operators of this site, and do like they do; tell government to make things right by you or we replace government. You think PG is sitting on the sidelines letting Congress figure out themselves? He's putting his thumb on the scale through his actions through social networking with politicians. Gotta leave the basement and do the work Americans are heavily propagandized and naive af. So exhausted by educated morons.
  - y8lylylg 5mo ago
    yes thank god for visionaries like you who use fictional tv shows as a reference for their politics. the final frontier is what is inside your head.
Sh0000reZ 5mo ago
From what I can find online there is $12 billion in mortgages outstanding in the US[1] ICE has an $80 billion budget. Demand Congress pay off mortgages rather than hand Leon Skum tens of billions. There you go. Stability. [1] https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/nmdb-outstanding-residential-mortgage-statistics https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/nmdb-outstanding-residen...
- HanayamaTriplet 5mo ago
  That says $12,000 billion, not $12 billion. (Aside from the question of paying off mortgages being a good idea or not.)

madaxe_again 5mo ago

That was exactly what a great many things were marketed as, such as the jacquard loom and dynamite. What actually happened in each case was that employment went up for a good long while, as the efficiency boost to the sectors touched made investment far more viable. Eventually successive rounds of automation did reduce employment in each of weaving and mining, but it wasn’t an overnight catastrophe as initially advertised or feared.

JumpCrisscross 5mo ago

> the CEOs of the companies selling the products involved weren't actively and aggressively marketing them as being able to replace all the humans they employ The assembly line was explicitly about replacing skilled with relatively unskilled labor.