25 ms·

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

by cromka 6mo ago

luckystarr 6mo ago
Discovery of the best solution in a problem space is not generative but only verificative. Meaning: the LLM can see if a solution is better than another, but it can't generate the best one from the start. If you trust it, you'll get sub-par solutions. This is definitely an agent problem instead of an LLM problem. Anybody got something explorative like this working?
- coldtea 6mo ago
  So? Hundreds of millions of office and devel jobs are about for developing "optimal solutions" to begin with.
ASalazarMX 6mo ago
Hype cycles, AI has made developers obsolete like a dozen times in the las couple of years, at least according to their developers.
malfist 6mo ago
I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.
- kakacik 6mo ago
  It feels its just around the corner. But when you turn 20th corner and its still behind the next one, maybe things are a bit different than they seem / clueless emotions make us believe. Long term its bleak, but short/medium term - not so much, if I get fired it won't be llm replacing me but rather company politics, budget changes etc. Which was the only real (very real) risk for past 15 years too, consistently. But it helps to not work for US company.
- Danox 6mo ago
  It is the lament of every generation of humans to think that they are the pinnacle of everything that has come before, we are just at the start of the so-called AI era, many very smart people coming up still haven’t really got their hands on all of the material available from a hardware and software standpoint. We are still at the early stages. I am very optimistic. I just wish I was younger to take advantage like Junior high, high school age with my current resources damn… The oldest lament in the books.
  - davenci 6mo ago
    What makes you optimistic? Geniunly curious as I’m looking for how to take advantage of the ai disruption
  - Anamon 6mo ago
    We're not at the early stages. The LLM hype started almost for years ago! And for the past two or three years, progress has plateaued (if not regressed) and the economics, which still have to be figured out, point to it becoming an order of magnitude more expensive at least, compared to this aggressive marketing and VC phase. I've been told for three years that it's the early days, and everything completely changes every few months, and these are the worst the tools will ever be. Meanwhile, I see very little technical progress, zero return on investment anywhere, negative infinity profitability on the side of the providers, and a fast growing realisation among the masses on all the myriad tasks they are systemically unsuitable for.
- KronisLV 6mo ago
  > Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago. There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. Since around the end of 2025 and models like Opus 4.6, the SOTA has gotten good enough to work agentically on all sorts of dev tasks with pretty good degrees of success (harnesses and how you use them still matters, ofc).
  - wiseowise 6mo ago
    > There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. And how much revenue do they generate?
  - lbrito 6mo ago
    What's their balance, revenue - AI expenses? Using the real token costs, not the subsidized costs.
- laughing_man 6mo ago
  I'm not sure how anyone would know if it's closer or not. There's been a lot of progress in LLMs over the last four years.
- esafak 6mo ago
  Ask some juniors how their job search is going. In five years, ask the seniors.
- trustfundbaby 6mo ago
  I was the same opinion till Claude code was relased. its a lot closer now.
- Tesl 6mo ago
  I mean this is just fingers-in-your-ears "LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" stuff. I still have a job so AI hasn't taken that yet. But the suggestion it's "no closer" is ridiculous. At least in my life/career/office this last 12 months seems to have been a real inflection point in how AI is being used for software development.
  - malfist 6mo ago
    Sure, sure. And my CEO believes the singularity happened in Q1. Doesn't make it true
- pjmlp 6mo ago
  I surely have seen jobs around me being replaced by AI tooling, it is getting closer in corporate consulting.
hansmayer 6mo ago
> We've literally just started 5+ years in the software world is like 30 years in others...So...given lacking use-cases and humongous amounts of capital already wasted on chatbots...It's more like "we" are closer to closing curtains than to "just started"...

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

by cromka 6mo ago

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

Discovery of the best solution in a problem space is not generative but only verificative. Meaning: the LLM can see if a solution is better than another, but it can't generate the best one from the start. If you trust it, you'll get sub-par solutions. This is definitely an agent problem instead of an LLM problem. Anybody got something explorative like this working?

coldtea 6mo ago
So? Hundreds of millions of office and devel jobs are about for developing "optimal solutions" to begin with.

ASalazarMX 6mo ago

Hype cycles, AI has made developers obsolete like a dozen times in the las couple of years, at least according to their developers.

malfist 6mo ago

I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.

kakacik 6mo ago
It feels its just around the corner. But when you turn 20th corner and its still behind the next one, maybe things are a bit different than they seem / clueless emotions make us believe. Long term its bleak, but short/medium term - not so much, if I get fired it won't be llm replacing me but rather company politics, budget changes etc. Which was the only real (very real) risk for past 15 years too, consistently. But it helps to not work for US company.
Danox 6mo ago
It is the lament of every generation of humans to think that they are the pinnacle of everything that has come before, we are just at the start of the so-called AI era, many very smart people coming up still haven’t really got their hands on all of the material available from a hardware and software standpoint. We are still at the early stages. I am very optimistic. I just wish I was younger to take advantage like Junior high, high school age with my current resources damn… The oldest lament in the books.
- davenci 6mo ago
  What makes you optimistic? Geniunly curious as I’m looking for how to take advantage of the ai disruption
- Anamon 6mo ago
  We're not at the early stages. The LLM hype started almost for years ago! And for the past two or three years, progress has plateaued (if not regressed) and the economics, which still have to be figured out, point to it becoming an order of magnitude more expensive at least, compared to this aggressive marketing and VC phase. I've been told for three years that it's the early days, and everything completely changes every few months, and these are the worst the tools will ever be. Meanwhile, I see very little technical progress, zero return on investment anywhere, negative infinity profitability on the side of the providers, and a fast growing realisation among the masses on all the myriad tasks they are systemically unsuitable for.
KronisLV 6mo ago
> Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago. There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. Since around the end of 2025 and models like Opus 4.6, the SOTA has gotten good enough to work agentically on all sorts of dev tasks with pretty good degrees of success (harnesses and how you use them still matters, ofc).
- wiseowise 6mo ago
  > There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. And how much revenue do they generate?
- lbrito 6mo ago
  What's their balance, revenue - AI expenses? Using the real token costs, not the subsidized costs.
laughing_man 6mo ago
I'm not sure how anyone would know if it's closer or not. There's been a lot of progress in LLMs over the last four years.
esafak 6mo ago
Ask some juniors how their job search is going. In five years, ask the seniors.
trustfundbaby 6mo ago
I was the same opinion till Claude code was relased. its a lot closer now.
Tesl 6mo ago
I mean this is just fingers-in-your-ears "LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" stuff. I still have a job so AI hasn't taken that yet. But the suggestion it's "no closer" is ridiculous. At least in my life/career/office this last 12 months seems to have been a real inflection point in how AI is being used for software development.
- malfist 6mo ago
  Sure, sure. And my CEO believes the singularity happened in Q1. Doesn't make it true
pjmlp 6mo ago
I surely have seen jobs around me being replaced by AI tooling, it is getting closer in corporate consulting.

hansmayer 6mo ago

> We've literally just started 5+ years in the software world is like 30 years in others...So...given lacking use-cases and humongous amounts of capital already wasted on chatbots...It's more like "we" are closer to closing curtains than to "just started"...