3 ms·

Hacker News is mostly older white men, which is a demographic associated with Republicanism and Fox News watching in the United States. Understanding global wa

Hacker News is mostly older white men, which is a demographic associated with Republicanism and Fox News watching in the United States. Understanding global warming is not going to be easy for them. The reality is that every set of global warming predictions so far has understated the actual amount of warning observed. Models are giving too much weight to long-term stable trends over the recent data, plus scientists don't want to be tarred as "kooks" for having the most extreme projections. So if their model says 5C increase, it's probably low to start off with and it will be lowered more before publication, and it will end up underpredicting warming. When you read about X or Y amount of warming, it's most likely to be a minimum, not a "most likely" and certainly not a maximum. Current global warming observed has exceeded the absolute maximums predicted in previous generations of warming predictions.

scarmig 14y ago
That's false--Hacker News is a demographic mostly of younger white coastal American men who have no particular affection for Fox News. Because they tend to be higher income, they have libertarian tendencies, one of which is denialism. You're also getting a skewed view. Climate change posts on HN always drive out the people with the strongest opinions: an actual poll of HNers would likely have them supporting the consensus position.
skylan_q 14y ago
"The reality is that every set of global warming predictions so far has understated the actual amount of warning observed. Models are giving too much weight to long-term stable trends over the recent data, plus scientists don't want to be tarred as "kooks" for having the most extreme projections. So if their model says 5C increase, it's probably low to start off with and it will be lowered more before publication, and it will end up underpredicting warming." Scientists that have to lie to us for our own good. Now that's Science!

scarmig 14y ago

That's false--Hacker News is a demographic mostly of younger white coastal American men who have no particular affection for Fox News. Because they tend to be higher income, they have libertarian tendencies, one of which is denialism. You're also getting a skewed view. Climate change posts on HN always drive out the people with the strongest opinions: an actual poll of HNers would likely have them supporting the consensus position.

skylan_q 14y ago

"The reality is that every set of global warming predictions so far has understated the actual amount of warning observed. Models are giving too much weight to long-term stable trends over the recent data, plus scientists don't want to be tarred as "kooks" for having the most extreme projections. So if their model says 5C increase, it's probably low to start off with and it will be lowered more before publication, and it will end up underpredicting warming." Scientists that have to lie to us for our own good. Now that's Science!