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They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit, and even demonstrated payload depl

They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit, and even demonstrated payload deployment. So I'd say 100k looks do-able for them today. 10x that seems aspirational, but not comically so. Folks hate Musk, but that seems to cause them to not see the engineering going on in front of them.

Zigurd 5mo ago
> They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit They seem to have constructed a rocket that consistently gets heavier and more complex and more expensive and farthrt behind schedule and hasn't demonstrated specified payload. IOW it ain't better than falcon heavy.
- timschmidt 5mo ago
  I checked the publicly released stats over Starship's development, and this is what I found: compared with the initial ~5,000 t / ~73.5 MN concept, the latest V3-class Starship/Super Heavy is trending toward roughly 35%+ more loaded propellant mass and about 40% more maximum liftoff thrust if you use the FAA’s ~103 MN figure. Payload capability has also moved upward from the early 100+ t reusable LEO baseline to SpaceX’s current public claim of up to 150 t fully reusable and 250 t expendable. When I plug those numbers into https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation I get Delta-Vs in the 28k km/hr range right where I'd expect for orbit. You got a different rocket equation?
  - hackernudes 5mo ago
    Pretty sure they mean that Starship is not working reliably yet
    - Zigurd 5mo ago
      Starship has never met claimed specs and capabilities. It is so far behind schedule that it won't meet specs in time to remain relevant. Which is a generous way of saying it never will.
      - timschmidt 5mo ago
        It's always a good laugh when I run into some old comment or video talking like this about Falcon. Thunderfoot is a hoot.
dzhiurgis 5mo ago
I'd say Starship is already priced in. That's the step to go from 10k (1%) to 10%. Wonder what will be the next step.
- timschmidt 5mo ago
  Agreed. They're already stretching starship. And there's long been talk of a wider version yet. Starship is already pretty impressive considering it's just about exactly the size of Sea Dragon.

Zigurd 5mo ago

> They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit They seem to have constructed a rocket that consistently gets heavier and more complex and more expensive and farthrt behind schedule and hasn't demonstrated specified payload. IOW it ain't better than falcon heavy.

timschmidt 5mo ago
I checked the publicly released stats over Starship's development, and this is what I found: compared with the initial ~5,000 t / ~73.5 MN concept, the latest V3-class Starship/Super Heavy is trending toward roughly 35%+ more loaded propellant mass and about 40% more maximum liftoff thrust if you use the FAA’s ~103 MN figure. Payload capability has also moved upward from the early 100+ t reusable LEO baseline to SpaceX’s current public claim of up to 150 t fully reusable and 250 t expendable. When I plug those numbers into https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation I get Delta-Vs in the 28k km/hr range right where I'd expect for orbit. You got a different rocket equation?
- hackernudes 5mo ago
  Pretty sure they mean that Starship is not working reliably yet
  - Zigurd 5mo ago
    Starship has never met claimed specs and capabilities. It is so far behind schedule that it won't meet specs in time to remain relevant. Which is a generous way of saying it never will.
    - timschmidt 5mo ago
      It's always a good laugh when I run into some old comment or video talking like this about Falcon. Thunderfoot is a hoot.

dzhiurgis 5mo ago

I'd say Starship is already priced in. That's the step to go from 10k (1%) to 10%. Wonder what will be the next step.

timschmidt 5mo ago
Agreed. They're already stretching starship. And there's long been talk of a wider version yet. Starship is already pretty impressive considering it's just about exactly the size of Sea Dragon.