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They launched a grand total of ~10k starlink satellite, there is a long road between 10k and a million. Musk would be "the most credible" at claiming he'll hav

They launched a grand total of ~10k starlink satellite, there is a long road between 10k and a million. Musk would be "the most credible" at claiming he'll have 1000 trillion dollar by 2050, it doesn't mean it's credible at all.

timschmidt 6mo ago
They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit, and even demonstrated payload deployment. So I'd say 100k looks do-able for them today. 10x that seems aspirational, but not comically so. Folks hate Musk, but that seems to cause them to not see the engineering going on in front of them.
- Zigurd 6mo ago
  > They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit They seem to have constructed a rocket that consistently gets heavier and more complex and more expensive and farthrt behind schedule and hasn't demonstrated specified payload. IOW it ain't better than falcon heavy.
  - timschmidt 6mo ago
    I checked the publicly released stats over Starship's development, and this is what I found: compared with the initial ~5,000 t / ~73.5 MN concept, the latest V3-class Starship/Super Heavy is trending toward roughly 35%+ more loaded propellant mass and about 40% more maximum liftoff thrust if you use the FAA’s ~103 MN figure. Payload capability has also moved upward from the early 100+ t reusable LEO baseline to SpaceX’s current public claim of up to 150 t fully reusable and 250 t expendable. When I plug those numbers into https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation I get Delta-Vs in the 28k km/hr range right where I'd expect for orbit. You got a different rocket equation?
    - hackernudes 6mo ago
      Pretty sure they mean that Starship is not working reliably yet
      - Zigurd 6mo ago
        Starship has never met claimed specs and capabilities. It is so far behind schedule that it won't meet specs in time to remain relevant. Which is a generous way of saying it never will.
        timschmidt 6mo ago
        It's always a good laugh when I run into some old comment or video talking like this about Falcon. Thunderfoot is a hoot.
- dzhiurgis 6mo ago
  I'd say Starship is already priced in. That's the step to go from 10k (1%) to 10%. Wonder what will be the next step.
  - timschmidt 6mo ago
    Agreed. They're already stretching starship. And there's long been talk of a wider version yet. Starship is already pretty impressive considering it's just about exactly the size of Sea Dragon.

timschmidt 6mo ago

They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit, and even demonstrated payload deployment. So I'd say 100k looks do-able for them today. 10x that seems aspirational, but not comically so. Folks hate Musk, but that seems to cause them to not see the engineering going on in front of them.

Zigurd 6mo ago
> They seem to have constructed a rocket with 10x the payload to LEO of the one they used to put those 10k satellites in orbit They seem to have constructed a rocket that consistently gets heavier and more complex and more expensive and farthrt behind schedule and hasn't demonstrated specified payload. IOW it ain't better than falcon heavy.
- timschmidt 6mo ago
  I checked the publicly released stats over Starship's development, and this is what I found: compared with the initial ~5,000 t / ~73.5 MN concept, the latest V3-class Starship/Super Heavy is trending toward roughly 35%+ more loaded propellant mass and about 40% more maximum liftoff thrust if you use the FAA’s ~103 MN figure. Payload capability has also moved upward from the early 100+ t reusable LEO baseline to SpaceX’s current public claim of up to 150 t fully reusable and 250 t expendable. When I plug those numbers into https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation https://www.aerovia.org/tools/rocket-equation I get Delta-Vs in the 28k km/hr range right where I'd expect for orbit. You got a different rocket equation?
  - hackernudes 6mo ago
    Pretty sure they mean that Starship is not working reliably yet
    - Zigurd 6mo ago
      Starship has never met claimed specs and capabilities. It is so far behind schedule that it won't meet specs in time to remain relevant. Which is a generous way of saying it never will.
      - timschmidt 6mo ago
        It's always a good laugh when I run into some old comment or video talking like this about Falcon. Thunderfoot is a hoot.
dzhiurgis 6mo ago
I'd say Starship is already priced in. That's the step to go from 10k (1%) to 10%. Wonder what will be the next step.
- timschmidt 6mo ago
  Agreed. They're already stretching starship. And there's long been talk of a wider version yet. Starship is already pretty impressive considering it's just about exactly the size of Sea Dragon.