Given the request about engaging with this specific article: >Ive thought hard about how to sell prediction markets to consumers. In 2020, I created Google’s c

Given the request about engaging with this specific article: >Ive thought hard about how to sell prediction markets to consumers. In 2020, I created Google’s current internal prediction market. Since then, I’ve served as the CTO of Metaculus, a non-market-based crowd-forecasting website, and now run FutureSearch, a startup that provides AI forecasters and researchers. I feel like openly saying you professionally try to make people believe in markets reduced the impact of any further claim. >Still, there is a benefit to speed. On March 11, 2026, the Financial Times reported that, upon news of Iran War escalation, the Polymarket odds of inflation at or above 2.8% rose to above 90%. This illustrated an immediate domestic impact to US foreign policy, which could influence the public in a way that updates months later from professional economists might not. I don't understand the idea that this or similar predictions are of any value? "People strongly believe a war will worsen inflation" is information you could get anywhere and not necessarily based on any high quality decision making.