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> Russia stated that Ukraine joining NATO would start a war. The US began that process knowing Russia's reaction. Russia did what it said it would do. This ha

by mopsi 5mo ago

> Russia stated that Ukraine joining NATO would start a war. The US began that process knowing Russia's reaction. Russia did what it said it would do. This has nothing to do with reality. Ukraine wanted to join NATO in 2008, but allies did not support it and that was the end of it. Yet, Russia still invaded in 2014, over the deepening EU-Ukraine economic relations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union%E2%80%93Ukraine_Association_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union%E2%80%93Ukraine... Russia did not threaten anyone with war over the prospect of NATO membership. In the first years of the war, Russia did not even acknowledge that those were Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Russian government claimed that it was a civil war.

zoomthrowaway 5mo ago
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- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > Burns warned of serious consequences arising from NATO’s eastward expansion to include Ukraine and Georgia And then Ukraine accession disappeared from the policy menu. Then Putin annexed Crimea. Pretending Putin invaded Ukraine with any more strategic coherence than Trump going into Iran reveals a reality-defying bias in a source.
- mopsi 5mo ago
  This is an intimidation tactic and not a real threat. If the vague threat is enough to prevent something from happening, then it has served its purpose. If not, then the vagueness gives an exit to do nothing. Pretty much every country that has joined NATO since the end of the Cold War has seen a flood of such threats, Finland and Sweden most recently[1]: "Finland's accession to Nato will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations and the maintaining of stability and security in the Northern European region. Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to neutralise the threats to its national security that arise from this." Russia has attacked only Georgia and Ukraine, the two countries that did not end up joining NATO. There, the threats achieved their goal and shaped the battlefield in favor of Russia, which was then exploited. Elsewhere, the fake act of "We're soooo concerned with our national security" did not yield the desired results, and Russians moved on. Burns and many other Western diplomats have been surprisingly ignorant of such games, treat Russians as primitive savages who are incapable of manipulating people (despite it being a deeply ingrained feature of their culture), and take their words at face value, which produces the kind of memos Burns wrote. The 2008 decision to deny Georgia and Ukraine entry into NATO is nowadays widely considered a mistake. The views Burns held and promoted in the memo made the war more likely instead of preventing it. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185
- cosmicgadget 5mo ago
  NATO doesn't expand eastward. Countries that see Russia as a temu-tier empire seek a defensive partnership. The cold war is over, Russia lost in everyone's mind except the second rate KGB officer who now runs the country.

by mopsi 5mo ago

zoomthrowaway 5mo ago

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JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> Burns warned of serious consequences arising from NATO’s eastward expansion to include Ukraine and Georgia And then Ukraine accession disappeared from the policy menu. Then Putin annexed Crimea. Pretending Putin invaded Ukraine with any more strategic coherence than Trump going into Iran reveals a reality-defying bias in a source.
mopsi 5mo ago
This is an intimidation tactic and not a real threat. If the vague threat is enough to prevent something from happening, then it has served its purpose. If not, then the vagueness gives an exit to do nothing. Pretty much every country that has joined NATO since the end of the Cold War has seen a flood of such threats, Finland and Sweden most recently[1]: "Finland's accession to Nato will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations and the maintaining of stability and security in the Northern European region. Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to neutralise the threats to its national security that arise from this." Russia has attacked only Georgia and Ukraine, the two countries that did not end up joining NATO. There, the threats achieved their goal and shaped the battlefield in favor of Russia, which was then exploited. Elsewhere, the fake act of "We're soooo concerned with our national security" did not yield the desired results, and Russians moved on. Burns and many other Western diplomats have been surprisingly ignorant of such games, treat Russians as primitive savages who are incapable of manipulating people (despite it being a deeply ingrained feature of their culture), and take their words at face value, which produces the kind of memos Burns wrote. The 2008 decision to deny Georgia and Ukraine entry into NATO is nowadays widely considered a mistake. The views Burns held and promoted in the memo made the war more likely instead of preventing it. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185
cosmicgadget 5mo ago
NATO doesn't expand eastward. Countries that see Russia as a temu-tier empire seek a defensive partnership. The cold war is over, Russia lost in everyone's mind except the second rate KGB officer who now runs the country.