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Reminds me of how ever since egg prices went to the moon we've all had to give up dessert and subsist on thin gruel for breakfast. What's that? Egg prices are

Reminds me of how ever since egg prices went to the moon we've all had to give up dessert and subsist on thin gruel for breakfast. What's that? Egg prices are back down after suppliers cranked up their output? Surely nothing like that is possible with hardware... Personal computing is dead forever...

ls612 5mo ago
This will happen eventually but there is a much longer lag for hardware supply than for egg supply so I wouldn’t expect a ton of improvement until late 2027 or even 2028.
CamperBob2 5mo ago
It takes 5 months for a newly-hatched chicken to start laying eggs. It takes 5 years after breaking ground on a new fab to start producing chips.
lowbloodsugar 5mo ago
That’s the issue: ram suppliers have not started building new fabs, which means they expect this demand to be temporary and they’re just going to make a killing on it while they can. It takes years to get a fab up, and they think demand will be gone by then. So that means ridiculous prices now, and if demand doesn’t drop, ridiculous prices until someone thinks the demand will continue for four more years after that moment. Whatever the moment, building for four years out is a risk. So this could last forever.
- dist-epoch 5mo ago
  > SK Hynix to invest about $13 bln in a new South Korea plant to meet AI memory demand https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-invest-about-13-bln-new-south-korea-plant-meet-ai-memory-demand-2026-04-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-invest-a... > SK Hynix has reportedly broken ground on a new advanced memory packaging facility in West Lafayette, Indiana, that should boost the supply of US-made high-bandwidth memory (HBM) https://www.theregister.com/on-prem/2026/04/22/sk-hynix-breaks-ground-on-indiana-advanced-packaging-plant/5227437 https://www.theregister.com/on-prem/2026/04/22/sk-hynix-brea... > Samsung to advance mega-fab expansion by 6 months to get ahead in capacity race; SK Hynix follows suit https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202605070006 https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked2026...

ls612 5mo ago

This will happen eventually but there is a much longer lag for hardware supply than for egg supply so I wouldn’t expect a ton of improvement until late 2027 or even 2028.

CamperBob2 5mo ago

It takes 5 months for a newly-hatched chicken to start laying eggs. It takes 5 years after breaking ground on a new fab to start producing chips.

lowbloodsugar 5mo ago

That’s the issue: ram suppliers have not started building new fabs, which means they expect this demand to be temporary and they’re just going to make a killing on it while they can. It takes years to get a fab up, and they think demand will be gone by then. So that means ridiculous prices now, and if demand doesn’t drop, ridiculous prices until someone thinks the demand will continue for four more years after that moment. Whatever the moment, building for four years out is a risk. So this could last forever.

dist-epoch 5mo ago
> SK Hynix to invest about $13 bln in a new South Korea plant to meet AI memory demand https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-invest-about-13-bln-new-south-korea-plant-meet-ai-memory-demand-2026-04-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-invest-a... > SK Hynix has reportedly broken ground on a new advanced memory packaging facility in West Lafayette, Indiana, that should boost the supply of US-made high-bandwidth memory (HBM) https://www.theregister.com/on-prem/2026/04/22/sk-hynix-breaks-ground-on-indiana-advanced-packaging-plant/5227437 https://www.theregister.com/on-prem/2026/04/22/sk-hynix-brea... > Samsung to advance mega-fab expansion by 6 months to get ahead in capacity race; SK Hynix follows suit https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202605070006 https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked2026...