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In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

by pear01 5mo ago

TheGRS 5mo ago
This is way outside of my area of expertise, but I thought US export oil was not fungible with what we consume.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 5mo ago
  Fake numbers, but I have heard it is something like the US produces 100 units of light crude -exports it all, and imports 50 units of heavy. Net exporter, but the stuff we use domestically for gas refineries comes from elsewhere. Technically, the refineries can be retooled to take a different blend, but it is expensive to do.
- oceanplexian 5mo ago
  It’s actually harder (requires more advanced technology) to refine heavy and sour crude. The US refining industry process this type of oil mainly because it’s more profitable not because of some limitation. American oil on the other hand (As in extracted out of the ground) is actually too high quality for domestic consumption therefore gets shipped overseas and sold at a premium. The weird economics of this are made possible by globalization. While it’s not fungible on a dime it’s easy to solve and the US really does hold all the cards when it comes to the petroleum industry.
- jandrewrogers 5mo ago
  US crude oil is exported to foreign refineries for blending purposes. By blending low-quality crude with high-quality crude it can reduce the total costs to the refiner even after accounting for the fact that you had to buy high-quality crude to improve the properties of the domestic crude.
mjhay 5mo ago
An export ban wouldn’t really help much: US oil production is (now) predominantly light crude, while US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela. We produce more oil than we use, but we can’t refine it all.
- badc0ffee 5mo ago
  > US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela. Or from Alberta.
- pear01 5mo ago
  It may be a bad idea (for various reasons), but it is one already being floated. Here is a press release just today from a California congressman who is proposing a bill to this effect. https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congressman-brad-sherman-introduces-bill-halt-us-oil-exports-shield https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congre... If you agree with the parent that Americans are going to feel more energy market pain in the coming months I would imagine the pressure for this will only increase.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > An export ban wouldn’t really help much It could help in the long term by underwritig refinery retooling. The problem is you'd almost certainly need public support for those investments, given they could be undone by the lifting of such a ban. (An export ban would also trash America's reputation with our import partners.)
- jandrewrogers 5mo ago
  Refining light crude is essentially the same process as heavy crude with fewer steps. US refineries are designed to handle virtually any kind of crude and are highly configurable. That flexibility is part of what makes their refinery business so successful. US refinery capacity is ~50% larger than their domestic oil production; it is a major export business for the US. The real cost to not processing heavy crude oil is that many refinery assets will be sitting idle because they aren't needed to process light crude.
- 5mo ago
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> an export ban may be increasingly probable "U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves decreased 1% from 46.4 billion barrels to 46.0 billion barrels at year-end 2024" [1]. At February's 180 million barrel/month import rate, that's only 21 years of supply in the ground. Reliance on oil, for America, is a long-term reliance on foreign oil. [1] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/ https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/ [2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUS1&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

by pear01 5mo ago

In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

TheGRS 5mo ago

This is way outside of my area of expertise, but I thought US export oil was not fungible with what we consume.

0cf8612b2e1e 5mo ago
Fake numbers, but I have heard it is something like the US produces 100 units of light crude -exports it all, and imports 50 units of heavy. Net exporter, but the stuff we use domestically for gas refineries comes from elsewhere. Technically, the refineries can be retooled to take a different blend, but it is expensive to do.
oceanplexian 5mo ago
It’s actually harder (requires more advanced technology) to refine heavy and sour crude. The US refining industry process this type of oil mainly because it’s more profitable not because of some limitation. American oil on the other hand (As in extracted out of the ground) is actually too high quality for domestic consumption therefore gets shipped overseas and sold at a premium. The weird economics of this are made possible by globalization. While it’s not fungible on a dime it’s easy to solve and the US really does hold all the cards when it comes to the petroleum industry.
jandrewrogers 5mo ago
US crude oil is exported to foreign refineries for blending purposes. By blending low-quality crude with high-quality crude it can reduce the total costs to the refiner even after accounting for the fact that you had to buy high-quality crude to improve the properties of the domestic crude.

mjhay 5mo ago

An export ban wouldn’t really help much: US oil production is (now) predominantly light crude, while US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela. We produce more oil than we use, but we can’t refine it all.

badc0ffee 5mo ago
> US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela. Or from Alberta.
pear01 5mo ago
It may be a bad idea (for various reasons), but it is one already being floated. Here is a press release just today from a California congressman who is proposing a bill to this effect. https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congressman-brad-sherman-introduces-bill-halt-us-oil-exports-shield https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congre... If you agree with the parent that Americans are going to feel more energy market pain in the coming months I would imagine the pressure for this will only increase.
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> An export ban wouldn’t really help much It could help in the long term by underwritig refinery retooling. The problem is you'd almost certainly need public support for those investments, given they could be undone by the lifting of such a ban. (An export ban would also trash America's reputation with our import partners.)
jandrewrogers 5mo ago
Refining light crude is essentially the same process as heavy crude with fewer steps. US refineries are designed to handle virtually any kind of crude and are highly configurable. That flexibility is part of what makes their refinery business so successful. US refinery capacity is ~50% larger than their domestic oil production; it is a major export business for the US. The real cost to not processing heavy crude oil is that many refinery assets will be sitting idle because they aren't needed to process light crude.
5mo ago

JumpCrisscross 5mo ago

> an export ban may be increasingly probable "U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves decreased 1% from 46.4 billion barrels to 46.0 billion barrels at year-end 2024" [1]. At February's 180 million barrel/month import rate, that's only 21 years of supply in the ground. Reliance on oil, for America, is a long-term reliance on foreign oil. [1] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/ https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/ [2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUS1&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...