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Even artificially limiting their availability causing prices to shoot up does not quench the thirst. I am always confused why the conversation seems to be about

Even artificially limiting their availability causing prices to shoot up does not quench the thirst. I am always confused why the conversation seems to be about switching the toggle switch from fossil fuels only to renewables only. It's obvious the best way is more of potentiometer where you slowly change from one by adding renewables to the point of being able to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels. We're seeing it happen all across the planet. That should be the low bar.

PaulHoule 6mo ago
To "simply run out of fossil fuels" is like that potentiometer you mention, it isn't like you run out all at once but you run out of the cheap ones first and it gets more expensive. I remember reading https://www.amazon.com/Hubberts-Peak-Impending-Shortage-Revised/dp/0691116253 https://www.amazon.com/Hubberts-Peak-Impending-Shortage-Revi... in the early 2000s which was about the coming peak of conventional oil production and it turned out to be wrong in the sense that we knew in the 1970s that there were huge amounts of oil and gas in tight formations that we didn't know how to exploit. People were trying to figure out how to do that economically and had their breakthrough around the time that book came out so now you drive around some parts of Pennsylvania and boy do you see a lot of natural gas infrastructure. I remember being in my hippie phase in the late 1990s and having a conversation with a roughneck on the Ithaca Commons who was telling me that the oil industry had a lot of technology that was going to lift the supply constraints that I was concerned about... he didn't tell me all the details but looking back now I'm pretty sure he knew about developments in hydrofracking and might even have been personally involved with them.
- leonidasrup 6mo ago
  We have still lot of known fossil fuel reserves. More than we should put into atmosfere in form of CO2. Coal for 139 years Oil for 56 years Gas for 49 years https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-rese... This is a bit simplified because high fossil fuel prices also drive inovations in mining, exploration and could increase known reserves.
- TheOtherHobbes 6mo ago
  We're not going to run out of fossil fuels. We are going to start running out of habitable biosphere because of climate degradation. It's only a matter of time - likely a few years - before there's a significant wet-bulb heat catastrophe that kills a huge number of people. For example.
  - PaulHoule 6mo ago
    Amen!
    - thefunkychook 6mo ago
      Just to be clear... Are you saying "amen" to not running out of fossil fuels, or to the possibility of a large number of people dying from heat stress, or both?
      - PaulHoule 6mo ago
        To say that I agree with your analysis, not that I think a mass casualty event is a good thing.

PaulHoule 6mo ago

To "simply run out of fossil fuels" is like that potentiometer you mention, it isn't like you run out all at once but you run out of the cheap ones first and it gets more expensive. I remember reading https://www.amazon.com/Hubberts-Peak-Impending-Shortage-Revised/dp/0691116253 https://www.amazon.com/Hubberts-Peak-Impending-Shortage-Revi... in the early 2000s which was about the coming peak of conventional oil production and it turned out to be wrong in the sense that we knew in the 1970s that there were huge amounts of oil and gas in tight formations that we didn't know how to exploit. People were trying to figure out how to do that economically and had their breakthrough around the time that book came out so now you drive around some parts of Pennsylvania and boy do you see a lot of natural gas infrastructure. I remember being in my hippie phase in the late 1990s and having a conversation with a roughneck on the Ithaca Commons who was telling me that the oil industry had a lot of technology that was going to lift the supply constraints that I was concerned about... he didn't tell me all the details but looking back now I'm pretty sure he knew about developments in hydrofracking and might even have been personally involved with them.

leonidasrup 6mo ago
We have still lot of known fossil fuel reserves. More than we should put into atmosfere in form of CO2. Coal for 139 years Oil for 56 years Gas for 49 years https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-rese... This is a bit simplified because high fossil fuel prices also drive inovations in mining, exploration and could increase known reserves.
TheOtherHobbes 6mo ago
We're not going to run out of fossil fuels. We are going to start running out of habitable biosphere because of climate degradation. It's only a matter of time - likely a few years - before there's a significant wet-bulb heat catastrophe that kills a huge number of people. For example.
- PaulHoule 6mo ago
  Amen!
  - thefunkychook 6mo ago
    Just to be clear... Are you saying "amen" to not running out of fossil fuels, or to the possibility of a large number of people dying from heat stress, or both?
    - PaulHoule 6mo ago
      To say that I agree with your analysis, not that I think a mass casualty event is a good thing.