5 ms·

"paradigm shift" A paradigm shift is an earth shattering, very important change - a complete change in thinking etc. LLMs are not that. They are simply some

by gerdesj 6mo ago

"paradigm shift" A paradigm shift is an earth shattering, very important change - a complete change in thinking etc. LLMs are not that. They are simply some pretty new tools. Nice tools but they will whip off your metaphorical thumb just as quickly as a miss-used table saw. You'll note that you mention "engineers are offloading": that's not a paradigm shift. That's a bunch of engineers discovering a better slide rule. I'm old enough to remember moving on from slide rules (I still have mine) through calculators (ditto) to using fag packets and napkins for their real intended purpose. The drill-driver also took engineering by storm but no-one ever used the term paradigm shift (to be fair, I don't think it was invented at the time and I can't be arsed to look it up).

aspenmartin 6mo ago
I would argue LLMs are possibly the largest paradigm shift the world has ever seen, and we are only at the beginning. The entire scaffolding and structure of programming is in the process of changing — coding has moved to orchestration and testing and governance of how to manage and productionalize code that has surpassed the capacity of human review. If this sounds melodramatic it’s likely that it hasn’t fully taken root where you are yet. I see opinions split on like “it’s just a dirty untrustworthy tool that is making our lives and the world a living hell” and “this is the second coming of Christ”. The reality is that right now we lie on that first part of the spectrum, but I am looking over the hill and seeing 4 horses and they are stampeding this way
- gerdesj 6mo ago
  [How did you bang out this: — on your keyboard? Why did you decide to use backticks and 66/99 for quotes - nice but its not you is it?] Engage as a person, please.
  - aspenmartin 6mo ago
    I typed this out, character by painful human character, on an iPhone. It is indeed me!
  - aspenmartin 6mo ago
    Oh also! Two dashes on my phone converts to an EN dash I think (not em dash!)
    - taneq 5mo ago
      Let’s test that — hmm, I think it did?
  - taneq 5mo ago
    iOS automatically ‘replaces’ “quotes” with open/close quotes… and triple full stops with ellipses.
- nothinkjustai 5mo ago
  No offense but this reads like AI psychosis
  - aspenmartin 5mo ago
    Well I’m not offended but it sounds like you may not be paying attention? Do you know the capital outlay that has gone into infra buildouts? several people here have described “6 months” of AI mania—-the fact that people are saying 6 months is exactly the point. Development has been going on since 2010s. All of the “boosters” as HN likes to say have been saying “hey this thing is huge and the performance trends are startling, get ready” and people then say “that’s psychotic I can’t even get Siri to understand my name”. Sure enough, 6 months ago we hit a performance inflection point where “madness” has begun. That’s just when you started paying attention, the rate of change has not stopped. Pretty easy to predict what happens next…
    - taneq 5mo ago
      Maybe it’s time to ask Siri again, “hey are you smart yet or are you still just a script?” If she says “I’m sorry, I don’t know how to are you still just a script” then I have my answer. :P LLMs are remarkable these days but they’re still missing a some essential insight. I’m far less confident now, though, that this will require another big breakthrough and not just a combination of tweaks.
      - aspenmartin 5mo ago
        I accept your skepticism is all I can say but just consider we’re not talking about the most important numbers and topics in this conversation. We have a lot of mileage left in the current stack. Nothing is plateauing though you wouldn’t know it if you read HN.
      - bigtex88 5mo ago
        Siri is not the same as an LLM in this context but thank you.
    - nothinkjustai 5mo ago
- viking123 5mo ago
  lmao
- fatata123 5mo ago
  [dead]
- gerdesj 5mo ago
  "I would argue LLMs are possibly the largest paradigm shift the world has ever seen" LLMs are next token guessers with knobs on. That is not a paradigm shift.
  - aspenmartin 5mo ago
    Turns out it is. Trillions of dollars of capex, hundreds of billions of dollars in attributable revenue speak a little louder than a very old and lazy refrain.
slopinthebag 5mo ago
"paradigm shift" And it's literally just a black box that generates more Javascript for their Next.js app
Leynos 5mo ago
When the nature of your job changes fundamentally in the space of a year, "paradigm shift" feels unsettlingly appropriate.
raincole 5mo ago
In the past half a century, product design went from making precise diagrams on paper to CAD. Do you think it's fair to call this paradigm shift or CAD is just some pretty new tool?

by gerdesj 6mo ago

aspenmartin 6mo ago

I would argue LLMs are possibly the largest paradigm shift the world has ever seen, and we are only at the beginning. The entire scaffolding and structure of programming is in the process of changing — coding has moved to orchestration and testing and governance of how to manage and productionalize code that has surpassed the capacity of human review. If this sounds melodramatic it’s likely that it hasn’t fully taken root where you are yet. I see opinions split on like “it’s just a dirty untrustworthy tool that is making our lives and the world a living hell” and “this is the second coming of Christ”. The reality is that right now we lie on that first part of the spectrum, but I am looking over the hill and seeing 4 horses and they are stampeding this way

gerdesj 6mo ago
[How did you bang out this: — on your keyboard? Why did you decide to use backticks and 66/99 for quotes - nice but its not you is it?] Engage as a person, please.
- aspenmartin 6mo ago
  I typed this out, character by painful human character, on an iPhone. It is indeed me!
- aspenmartin 6mo ago
  Oh also! Two dashes on my phone converts to an EN dash I think (not em dash!)
  - taneq 5mo ago
    Let’s test that — hmm, I think it did?
- taneq 5mo ago
  iOS automatically ‘replaces’ “quotes” with open/close quotes… and triple full stops with ellipses.
nothinkjustai 5mo ago
No offense but this reads like AI psychosis
- aspenmartin 5mo ago
  Well I’m not offended but it sounds like you may not be paying attention? Do you know the capital outlay that has gone into infra buildouts? several people here have described “6 months” of AI mania—-the fact that people are saying 6 months is exactly the point. Development has been going on since 2010s. All of the “boosters” as HN likes to say have been saying “hey this thing is huge and the performance trends are startling, get ready” and people then say “that’s psychotic I can’t even get Siri to understand my name”. Sure enough, 6 months ago we hit a performance inflection point where “madness” has begun. That’s just when you started paying attention, the rate of change has not stopped. Pretty easy to predict what happens next…
  - taneq 5mo ago
    Maybe it’s time to ask Siri again, “hey are you smart yet or are you still just a script?” If she says “I’m sorry, I don’t know how to are you still just a script” then I have my answer. :P LLMs are remarkable these days but they’re still missing a some essential insight. I’m far less confident now, though, that this will require another big breakthrough and not just a combination of tweaks.
    - aspenmartin 5mo ago
      I accept your skepticism is all I can say but just consider we’re not talking about the most important numbers and topics in this conversation. We have a lot of mileage left in the current stack. Nothing is plateauing though you wouldn’t know it if you read HN.
    - bigtex88 5mo ago
      Siri is not the same as an LLM in this context but thank you.
  - nothinkjustai 5mo ago
viking123 5mo ago
lmao
fatata123 5mo ago
[dead]
gerdesj 5mo ago
"I would argue LLMs are possibly the largest paradigm shift the world has ever seen" LLMs are next token guessers with knobs on. That is not a paradigm shift.
- aspenmartin 5mo ago
  Turns out it is. Trillions of dollars of capex, hundreds of billions of dollars in attributable revenue speak a little louder than a very old and lazy refrain.

slopinthebag 5mo ago

"paradigm shift" And it's literally just a black box that generates more Javascript for their Next.js app

Leynos 5mo ago

When the nature of your job changes fundamentally in the space of a year, "paradigm shift" feels unsettlingly appropriate.

raincole 5mo ago

In the past half a century, product design went from making precise diagrams on paper to CAD. Do you think it's fair to call this paradigm shift or CAD is just some pretty new tool?