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You say this as though performance has not followed a very clear and extremely rapid improvement in a startlingly short amount of time. You’re definitely right
by aspenmartin 6mo ago
You say this as though performance has not followed a very clear and extremely rapid improvement in a startlingly short amount of time.
You’re definitely right that people adopt agentic workflows and are disappointed or worse, but the point is the disappointment has already reduced substantially and will continue to do so. We know this because we know the scaling laws, and also because learning theory has been around for many decades.
- slopinthebag 6mo agoYes but we don't know the shape of the curve and where we are on it.
- aspenmartin 6mo agoSee chinchilla scaling laws, we have the functional form of the curve and know the constants (though they change and are domain and model specific): L(N,D) ~= 1.69 + 406 / N^0.339 + 411 / D^0.285 L is loss (pre training test loss) D is the scale of the data N is the number of model parameters
- slopinthebag 6mo agoYou need to touch grass dude, seriously.
- aspenmartin 6mo agoWhy deflect from the conversation and attempt to insult someone? What I’m saying is literally canonical and extremely well known literature.
- paganel 6mo ago> very clear and extremely rapid improvement in a startlingly short amount of time. We're almost 6 months into all this AI-code madness and I've yet to see that "rapid improvement" you mention. As in software products that are genuinely better compared to 6 months ago, or new software products (and good software products at that) which would have not existed had this AI craze not happened.
- handoflixue 6mo agoCan you name literally any other technology that had hundreds of millions of users within the first six months of being invented? Six months after the internet was invented, you could send email between a few universities. Six months after the computer was invented, they still hadn't actually built one. The first transcontinental railroad, took about six YEARS just to build.
- nothinkjustai 6mo agoGPT did not have hundreds of millions of users when it was invented almost a decade ago…
- handoflixue 6mo agoIf you want to move the goal posts, that's fine, acknowledge it: the original claim I'm responding to was "We're almost 6 months into all this AI-code madness" If you want to set GPT as the target, that's even easier! In that decade it has passed the Turing Test, solved novel open math problems, generates audio, video, and music, and can write coherent code. Again, there is no technology that has improved more rapidly than LLMs.
- nothinkjustai 6mo agoI’d say the internet did, since it literally connected people across the globe in real time, which actually provided the technology that allows LLMs and other similar tech to exist in the first place. I think it’s pretty clear the internet has had 10x the impact of LLMs so far. Maybe 100x
- aspenmartin 6mo agoThe internet has been around since the 80s…ChatGPT came out 4 years ago. The internet took decades to build out the infrastructure. Inflation adjusted capex for AI infrastructure already far surpasses that of the internet. You’re talking about a technology that doesn’t just make things easier it replaces entire swaths of work. Under some weird measurement you may be right but I mean cmon.
- cyclopeanutopia 6mo agoPerhaps you are confusing performance with instability?
- aspenmartin 6mo agoNo. Time horizon I’m talking about spans years. “We don’t know” is just wrong, we’ve had scaling laws for many years and they continue to hold up. Benchmarks, in all their ugliness, tell a consistent story.
- strange_quark 6mo agoWhat rapid improvement has occurred, because in this six month AI coding fever dream we've been living in, I really haven't seen anything new in awhile, both in terms of new ideas for AI coding or in new consumer products or services. I'll give you the coding harnesses themselves are better because that was a new product category with a lot of low-hanging fruit, but have the models actually improved in a way that isn't just benchmaxxing? I'd argue the models seem to be regressing. Even the most AI-pilled people at my company have all complained that Opus 4.7 is a dud. Anecdotally, GPT 5.5 seems decent, but it's rumored to be a 10T parameter model, isn't noticeably better than 5.4 or 5.3, is insanely expensive to use, and seems to be experiencing model collapse since the system prompt has to beg the thing to not talk about goblins and raccoons.
- jatora 6mo agoUninformed opinion of someone who clearly doesnt consistently use AI coding tools, clearly. And why are you limiting it to 6 months? Whats wrong with you?
- zapataband1 6mo agoHow many years of real-life, in-production problem solving/coding have you done? That's what I base how informed you are not how much you use your favorite new $100/month token-prediction subscription
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- jatora 6mo ago15 years. But that's irrelevant to this point. The person im replying to clearly doesnt use the tools if they think there hasnt been constant improvement. "token-prediction subscription" is funny, coming from a glorified biological token predictor
- zapataband1 6mo ago
- leptons 6mo agoYou say this as though AI company debt has not followed a very clear and extremely rapid ballooning in a startlingly short amount of time. It's the "YOLO" of business strategies.
- aspenmartin 6mo agoAlways amazes me how we’re on a platform with “ycombinator” in the url and people don’t understand how private companies scale to capture market share. You’re right Uber was that company that ran at a loss for so long and collapsed, another YOLO business strategy. Or maybe it was Amazon or…hmm I forget
- leptons 6mo agoI can't afford to take Ubers anymore. A trip that used to cost $7 now costs $40. AI is going to be the same to cover all the massive amounts of money already spent. You like your $200/mo plan now? How about when it's $2000/mo?
- aspenmartin 6mo agoYou are not at all wrong. Also get ready for the insidious advertising!