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I can't knock your methodology, as it has produced some black-swan type results (Dropbox, etc). But the only justification you have articulated against single f

I can't knock your methodology, as it has produced some black-swan type results (Dropbox, etc). But the only justification you have articulated against single founder prospects thus far is some ineffable "esprit-de-corps" in an earlier essay. Right or wrong, most determined single founders would look askance at such intangible, unquantifiable justification of their dismissal.

erichocean 14y ago
Dropbox was a single founder, which pg converted into a nominally multi-founder startup. Does anyone here think that Dropbox would have been successful by firing Drew Houston and replacing him with Arash Ferdowsi and some other "founder", as if having 'two' founders is what made it work -- and not what actually made Dropbox possible, which was Drew Houston? Drew was doing Dropbox regardless, had already written most of the code, and could have cared less if YC chose him or not. And pg wanted him to have a co-founder, so he got paired up with Arash Ferdowsi, and the rest is history. Note: none of this is meant to disparage Arash Ferdowsi or his contribution in any way. But I would strongly argue that Ferdowsi, without Houston, isn't a name any of us knows today, at least for a Dropbox-like product. And I would strongly argue that we'd still know Houston's name, and that Dropbox's success would be in the same order-of-magnitude that it is today.
- aswanson 14y ago
  Totally agree, which is one of the main reasons I feel there is after-the-fact attribution bias in the yc model. What's weird is that there seems to be evidence to the contrary that they are making a deliberate effort to ignore. I'm sure there's more to it than that, but that's how it appears.
- ludicast 14y ago
  Yep. And obviously if asked about Arash's role, Drew would say something classy like "I couldn't have done it without him". But that doesn't mean he couldn't/wouldn't.

erichocean 14y ago

Dropbox was a single founder, which pg converted into a nominally multi-founder startup. Does anyone here think that Dropbox would have been successful by firing Drew Houston and replacing him with Arash Ferdowsi and some other "founder", as if having 'two' founders is what made it work -- and not what actually made Dropbox possible, which was Drew Houston? Drew was doing Dropbox regardless, had already written most of the code, and could have cared less if YC chose him or not. And pg wanted him to have a co-founder, so he got paired up with Arash Ferdowsi, and the rest is history. Note: none of this is meant to disparage Arash Ferdowsi or his contribution in any way. But I would strongly argue that Ferdowsi, without Houston, isn't a name any of us knows today, at least for a Dropbox-like product. And I would strongly argue that we'd still know Houston's name, and that Dropbox's success would be in the same order-of-magnitude that it is today.

aswanson 14y ago
Totally agree, which is one of the main reasons I feel there is after-the-fact attribution bias in the yc model. What's weird is that there seems to be evidence to the contrary that they are making a deliberate effort to ignore. I'm sure there's more to it than that, but that's how it appears.
ludicast 14y ago
Yep. And obviously if asked about Arash's role, Drew would say something classy like "I couldn't have done it without him". But that doesn't mean he couldn't/wouldn't.