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You could anonymize the data and release a pretty monumental study. I would imagine the PR bump would be great too. My post is not an attack on you or TechStar

You could anonymize the data and release a pretty monumental study. I would imagine the PR bump would be great too. My post is not an attack on you or TechStars. It's just a counter-point to your data, based on my own personal experience.

pg 14y ago
It's hard to anonymize a data set that's both small and has a lot of variation.
- dmk23 14y ago
  I'm sure you would find a way to anonymize the data if it would result in a compelling story for YC. But as we all know so well the "startup outcomes" follow a power law. Dropbox and AirBnB make for a great YC PR, but are certainly nothing like a statistical mean outcome (aka "expected value"). I'd say it is a pretty reasonable thing to postulate that "doing things YC way" would result in a worse expected outcome for an individual founder vs. retaining control of a profitable business. If this statement is wrong please refute it with data. The way things are right now, YC is selling the "possibility" of becoming an outlier, while downplaying what "typical results" usually look like. If you were in a consumer product market it could likely break FTC rules on truth in advertising: http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/starek/nima96d4.shtm http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/starek/nima96d4.shtm EDIT / RESPONSE 1: This is not an "accusation". I am simply stating as fact that YC's model is focused on promoting its largest outlier successes (which form the bulk of YC portfolio value) while releasing no real data on the "mean outcome". Take it for what it is worth. As far as my statement about comparing "mean outcomes" it is obviously just a subjective judgement based on anecdotal evidence because there is no publicly released data from YC. EDIT / RESPONSE 2: Let's be realistic. Any VC firm can release % of IPOs, M&A and failures as well as IRR figures and exit bands. There is no reason to include any company-specific proprietary data. The only reason for YC to not give such estimates is because it would highlight the fact that most startups are nothing like Dropbox.
  - karamazov 14y ago
    That's a stark accusation. Do you have data to back this up, or is this your suspicion?
  - ljd 14y ago
    No, actually he can't anonymize that data. High variation might as well be a signature for a short list (under 1000) of companies. Also, his company has spent time and money to gain access to data that should help him pick emerging companies. I'm not sure why you would feel entitled to that. I'm sure they are working on some data project to help automate decisions on applicants, if not they will be eventually. That data will give them an edge when making offers. When you are in a position where asymmetrical information is working to your advantage why would anyone give that up?
    - dmk23 14y ago
      You just made another case against incubators / accelerators in general. If they have to rely on "asymmetrical information" to get access to deal flow and make competitive offers and if releasing the data would hurt their attractiveness to prospective investees, why exactly are they a good deal for entrepreneurs (who can actually build a business)? There is an old saying if you do not know who is the fool at the poker table, that's you.

pg 14y ago

It's hard to anonymize a data set that's both small and has a lot of variation.

dmk23 14y ago
I'm sure you would find a way to anonymize the data if it would result in a compelling story for YC. But as we all know so well the "startup outcomes" follow a power law. Dropbox and AirBnB make for a great YC PR, but are certainly nothing like a statistical mean outcome (aka "expected value"). I'd say it is a pretty reasonable thing to postulate that "doing things YC way" would result in a worse expected outcome for an individual founder vs. retaining control of a profitable business. If this statement is wrong please refute it with data. The way things are right now, YC is selling the "possibility" of becoming an outlier, while downplaying what "typical results" usually look like. If you were in a consumer product market it could likely break FTC rules on truth in advertising: http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/starek/nima96d4.shtm http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/starek/nima96d4.shtm EDIT / RESPONSE 1: This is not an "accusation". I am simply stating as fact that YC's model is focused on promoting its largest outlier successes (which form the bulk of YC portfolio value) while releasing no real data on the "mean outcome". Take it for what it is worth. As far as my statement about comparing "mean outcomes" it is obviously just a subjective judgement based on anecdotal evidence because there is no publicly released data from YC. EDIT / RESPONSE 2: Let's be realistic. Any VC firm can release % of IPOs, M&A and failures as well as IRR figures and exit bands. There is no reason to include any company-specific proprietary data. The only reason for YC to not give such estimates is because it would highlight the fact that most startups are nothing like Dropbox.
- karamazov 14y ago
  That's a stark accusation. Do you have data to back this up, or is this your suspicion?
- ljd 14y ago
  No, actually he can't anonymize that data. High variation might as well be a signature for a short list (under 1000) of companies. Also, his company has spent time and money to gain access to data that should help him pick emerging companies. I'm not sure why you would feel entitled to that. I'm sure they are working on some data project to help automate decisions on applicants, if not they will be eventually. That data will give them an edge when making offers. When you are in a position where asymmetrical information is working to your advantage why would anyone give that up?
  - dmk23 14y ago
    You just made another case against incubators / accelerators in general. If they have to rely on "asymmetrical information" to get access to deal flow and make competitive offers and if releasing the data would hurt their attractiveness to prospective investees, why exactly are they a good deal for entrepreneurs (who can actually build a business)? There is an old saying if you do not know who is the fool at the poker table, that's you.