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The real problem, which I think the article does a poor job of making clear: Tesla sold millions of cars before the current generation Hardware 4 vehicles with

by 827a 5mo ago

The real problem, which I think the article does a poor job of making clear: Tesla sold millions of cars before the current generation Hardware 4 vehicles with $10,000 full self driving packages which never really materialized convincingly ‘full’ self-driving capability. There’s fair arguments for the HW4 vehicles not having FSD either, maybe because it needs to be supervised or isn’t perfect or whatever. But the HW4 experience is good enough that I don’t think many HW4 owners are angry; it’s by far the best consumer self driving experience you can buy, and is very good. It’s the HW3 owners that got screwed and absolutely deserve money back.

testing22321 5mo ago
On the recent earnings call they did finally acknowledge they will have to upgrade the hardware in HW3 cars so they can fully self drive. The flayed the solution of “popup factories” in cities across the US to carry out the upgrade.
- FireBeyond 5mo ago
  Even then they're playing fuck fuck games. People have pushed on this and been told "We won't actually upgrade your hardware until you pay for FSD first" which is also horseshit. It wasn't "contains all the hardware necessary for FSD, provided you've bought it", it was "contains all the hardware necessary for FSD, full stop". I get why Tesla will resist this, but a part of me admires the pettiness (but reasonableness) of a bunch of owners demanding the hardware upgrade and then never buying FSD.
fouc 5mo ago
Seems like HW3 has been pretty good since FSD v12.3+ came out. If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD, then HW3 is probably 95% of the way. Though approaching 100% (maybe 2x the human standard) is going to be exponentially harder to get to.
- Schiendelman 5mo ago
  I'm reminded of the adage about getting 80% of the way through shipping a product, and then doing the other 80%...
  - fouc 5mo ago
    Yeah that's what I was referring to, the last 10% takes 90% of the time. Or the difficulty of getting from five 9s to nine 9s. In this case the final 1% is 200x harder than getting to the initial 95%.
- angoragoats 5mo ago
  I live in a suburban area in a cold climate. Based on what I've seen of "FSD," it's essentially unusable on most of the roads near me, and doubly so in winter. This is even true on larger highways/freeways, as when snow falls the camera systems can't see the lane markings. Not to mention the fact that some of those roads are so badly maintained that the lane markings are faint to nonexistent. I don't think Tesla can honestly claim 99%, or 95%, or even 50% of the way to FSD until they solve these issues. Until they do, it's just a fun toy. After all, years ago they were claiming that you'd be able to "summon" a Tesla sans driver from LA to NYC. What happens if there's a winter storm on the way?
  - bdangubic 5mo ago
    it is not even a fun toy because fun toys are fun for kids and no sane person would use FSD wirh a kid in a car
- wqaatwt 5mo ago
  > HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD If we describe current LLMs 99% of the way to AGI and full sentience then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA was probably 90% of the way.
- FireBeyond 5mo ago
  > If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD What part of that final one per cent includes "will not blow through railroad crossing gates when a train is approaching"? Or "will work in a Pittsburgh winter's night on a snow covered, poorly line marked road"?
ModernMech 5mo ago
> the HW4 experience is good enough that I don’t think many HW4 owners are angry Selection bias. The only people buying Teslas anymore are people who can explain away a Nazi salute. They'll explain away anything bad about HW4 as well.
- 827a 5mo ago
  Mhm. Yeah I'd definitely trust the opinion of someone who has never driven a HW4 Tesla over someone who has, because (checks notes) all owners of one of the top 3 best selling vehicles on the planet over the past four years are nazis.

by 827a 5mo ago

testing22321 5mo ago

On the recent earnings call they did finally acknowledge they will have to upgrade the hardware in HW3 cars so they can fully self drive. The flayed the solution of “popup factories” in cities across the US to carry out the upgrade.

FireBeyond 5mo ago
Even then they're playing fuck fuck games. People have pushed on this and been told "We won't actually upgrade your hardware until you pay for FSD first" which is also horseshit. It wasn't "contains all the hardware necessary for FSD, provided you've bought it", it was "contains all the hardware necessary for FSD, full stop". I get why Tesla will resist this, but a part of me admires the pettiness (but reasonableness) of a bunch of owners demanding the hardware upgrade and then never buying FSD.

fouc 5mo ago

Seems like HW3 has been pretty good since FSD v12.3+ came out. If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD, then HW3 is probably 95% of the way. Though approaching 100% (maybe 2x the human standard) is going to be exponentially harder to get to.

Schiendelman 5mo ago
I'm reminded of the adage about getting 80% of the way through shipping a product, and then doing the other 80%...
- fouc 5mo ago
  Yeah that's what I was referring to, the last 10% takes 90% of the time. Or the difficulty of getting from five 9s to nine 9s. In this case the final 1% is 200x harder than getting to the initial 95%.
angoragoats 5mo ago
I live in a suburban area in a cold climate. Based on what I've seen of "FSD," it's essentially unusable on most of the roads near me, and doubly so in winter. This is even true on larger highways/freeways, as when snow falls the camera systems can't see the lane markings. Not to mention the fact that some of those roads are so badly maintained that the lane markings are faint to nonexistent. I don't think Tesla can honestly claim 99%, or 95%, or even 50% of the way to FSD until they solve these issues. Until they do, it's just a fun toy. After all, years ago they were claiming that you'd be able to "summon" a Tesla sans driver from LA to NYC. What happens if there's a winter storm on the way?
- bdangubic 5mo ago
  it is not even a fun toy because fun toys are fun for kids and no sane person would use FSD wirh a kid in a car
wqaatwt 5mo ago
> HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD If we describe current LLMs 99% of the way to AGI and full sentience then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA was probably 90% of the way.
FireBeyond 5mo ago
> If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD What part of that final one per cent includes "will not blow through railroad crossing gates when a train is approaching"? Or "will work in a Pittsburgh winter's night on a snow covered, poorly line marked road"?

ModernMech 5mo ago

> the HW4 experience is good enough that I don’t think many HW4 owners are angry Selection bias. The only people buying Teslas anymore are people who can explain away a Nazi salute. They'll explain away anything bad about HW4 as well.

827a 5mo ago
Mhm. Yeah I'd definitely trust the opinion of someone who has never driven a HW4 Tesla over someone who has, because (checks notes) all owners of one of the top 3 best selling vehicles on the planet over the past four years are nazis.