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I had a look over this entire chain of posts. We are still talking past each other. Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and t

I had a look over this entire chain of posts. We are still talking past each other. Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and to build up its ability to bypass Hormuz. My main point is that in the short-term (say before 2030), UAE has no way to significantly increase its capability to bypass Hormuz, so to make effective use of the increase of its production, it is still dependent on Hormuz. To quote from few posts above: Me: 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than half of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly. You: Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly. When pressed about 'being ramped up significantly', you pointed to sources about the production being ramped up significantly and build-up of port and storage facilities at Fujeira, and about plans to build a parallel pipeline in the future. That is not 'pipeline capacity being ramped up significantly', that is 'there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity'. Perhaps misunderstanding. Anyway, I do not really understand your pumping-up UAE future. The war has severely disturbed their non-oil income and continued regional instability would not bode well for their future (rich people do not like unsafe places). Their recall of Pakistan's line of credit, intention to leave OPEC and their super-hostile stance to Iran do not make them friends in the region. And relying on USA/Israel for security/help is only for fools.

rramadass 6mo ago
Your comment(s) are a perfect example of Trevanian's quote "Obtuseness was its own defense". We are not talking past each other; You are simply trying to play "gotcha" games which i had to refute. I should also note that you have provided no sources of any kind. I have already pointed out that UAE's output before the war was in the region of 2.9-3.5 bpd (this is variable OPEC cap) with ADCOP carrying 1.5-1.8 bpd. A little math will tell you that ADCOP was carrying between 43% and 62% of the cap and so i had mentioned a approximate mean of 50%. I have seen reports which mentioned that sometimes it fluctuated between 32% and 66% (now even more higher) based on OPEC caps/Hormuz situation. I have also pointed out that ADCOP was constructed within 5 years and UAE has been working on Hormuz bypass options for well over a decade. Parallel pipelines would clearly not take as much time and we should easily see it by 2027/2028 since everything is being accelerated. UAE is being a responsible "world citizen" when it comes to the all essential Oil economy and hence i do not appreciate FUD being spewed when actual facts are easily available. Your last para are your fanciful opinions and have zero validity. The Iran conflict was simply a matter of "when" which just came to fruition now. As pointed out earlier, OPEC countries themselves were working on Hormuz bypass options for more than a decade. Iran has no friends in the Gulf region and hence UAE is fine; and whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf.
- don_esteban 6mo ago
  I will leave this one to shine on its own, there is really no need to add anything else: "whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf"
  - rramadass 6mo ago
    Coincidentally, here is today's very relevant CNN article; Israel and the UAE find common cause as the Iran war cracks old Middle East alliances - https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/middleeast/israel-uae-middle-east-alliances-opec-intl https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/middleeast/israel-uae-mid... Israel has actually deployed its Iron Dome defense systems in UAE! This is in addition to the US defense systems already deployed. Q.E.D.
    - don_esteban 6mo ago
      If Israel and USA did not attack Iran, there would have not been any need for all the weaponry US is selling UAE. You see 'providing security', I see stirring instability and protection racket. Your Q.E.D. works only on yourself. You surely sound like heavily invested in UAE, and trying to convince yourself that all your investment is not going down the drain.
      - rramadass 6mo ago
        Again, both your understanding and logic are flawed. Israel/USA did not attack Iran out-of-the-blue for no reason. It was because of Iran's troublesome actions over past many decades that its neighbours decided to align with US/Israel for protection. Your use of fanciful terms like "protection racket" exposes your cluelessness of the subject i.e. the centrality of Oil to the world economy and stability. Finally, your last line is a silly one with no bearing to reality or this discussion. As i said, i do not like FUD/ignorance being spread on important topics.
        don_esteban 6mo ago

rramadass 6mo ago

Your comment(s) are a perfect example of Trevanian's quote "Obtuseness was its own defense". We are not talking past each other; You are simply trying to play "gotcha" games which i had to refute. I should also note that you have provided no sources of any kind. I have already pointed out that UAE's output before the war was in the region of 2.9-3.5 bpd (this is variable OPEC cap) with ADCOP carrying 1.5-1.8 bpd. A little math will tell you that ADCOP was carrying between 43% and 62% of the cap and so i had mentioned a approximate mean of 50%. I have seen reports which mentioned that sometimes it fluctuated between 32% and 66% (now even more higher) based on OPEC caps/Hormuz situation. I have also pointed out that ADCOP was constructed within 5 years and UAE has been working on Hormuz bypass options for well over a decade. Parallel pipelines would clearly not take as much time and we should easily see it by 2027/2028 since everything is being accelerated. UAE is being a responsible "world citizen" when it comes to the all essential Oil economy and hence i do not appreciate FUD being spewed when actual facts are easily available. Your last para are your fanciful opinions and have zero validity. The Iran conflict was simply a matter of "when" which just came to fruition now. As pointed out earlier, OPEC countries themselves were working on Hormuz bypass options for more than a decade. Iran has no friends in the Gulf region and hence UAE is fine; and whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf.

don_esteban 6mo ago
I will leave this one to shine on its own, there is really no need to add anything else: "whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf"
- rramadass 6mo ago
  Coincidentally, here is today's very relevant CNN article; Israel and the UAE find common cause as the Iran war cracks old Middle East alliances - https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/middleeast/israel-uae-middle-east-alliances-opec-intl https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/middleeast/israel-uae-mid... Israel has actually deployed its Iron Dome defense systems in UAE! This is in addition to the US defense systems already deployed. Q.E.D.
  - don_esteban 6mo ago
    If Israel and USA did not attack Iran, there would have not been any need for all the weaponry US is selling UAE. You see 'providing security', I see stirring instability and protection racket. Your Q.E.D. works only on yourself. You surely sound like heavily invested in UAE, and trying to convince yourself that all your investment is not going down the drain.
    - rramadass 6mo ago
      Again, both your understanding and logic are flawed. Israel/USA did not attack Iran out-of-the-blue for no reason. It was because of Iran's troublesome actions over past many decades that its neighbours decided to align with US/Israel for protection. Your use of fanciful terms like "protection racket" exposes your cluelessness of the subject i.e. the centrality of Oil to the world economy and stability. Finally, your last line is a silly one with no bearing to reality or this discussion. As i said, i do not like FUD/ignorance being spread on important topics.
      - don_esteban 6mo ago