4 ms·

*For the rest of the world. The cruel irony here is that this really won't affect the US at all. Europe and Asia will feel the brunt of it, and they seem compl

*For the rest of the world. The cruel irony here is that this really won't affect the US at all. Europe and Asia will feel the brunt of it, and they seem completely uninterested in working toward a solution.

noah_buddy 5mo ago
Not true at all. USA will see large scale inflation. Oil and derivatives are basically the central global commodities.
- motbus3 5mo ago
  I'm not American. But couldn't this being held due to the mid terms? It already looks bad as is, but if inflation started escalating immediately with the conflict (or more than it is) wouldn't it make it for for electoral purposes?
  - noah_buddy 5mo ago
    The party in charge initiated this and inflation / bad economy aren’t usually winning electoral strategies.
dgellow 5mo ago
Why wouldn’t that affect the US? Isn’t the price of oil global? It’s not like US oil will be sold for cheaper to the local population, if that would be the case the incentive would be to export at the higher price instead, no?
- porknubbins 5mo ago
  If you look at gas prices in Saudi Arabia, some of it is subsidised to be lower but clearly its much cheaper to be consuming your own energy vs purchasing it internationally for a variety of reasons. The size of the effect is a messy economics question, not a black and white thing.
- ramesh31 5mo ago
  [dead]
- _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
  Weird that this was flagged dead in 2 hours? HN is really on a propaganda narrative shaping kick with the flagged dead. ramesh31 2 hours ago [dead] | root | parent | prev | next [–] >"Why wouldn’t that affect the US? Isn’t the price of oil global? It’s not like US oil will be sold for cheaper to the local population, if that would be the case the incentive would be to export at the higher price instead, no?" Sure, oil is a global commodity, but "global price" doesn't mean uniform impact. The US has been a net petroleum exporter since 2020 and produces ~13M bpd domestically. WTI consistently trades at a discount to Brent, often 10%+. Gulf Coast refineries are configured for the heavy/sour crude we get from Canada and our own shale, not the Gulf-state light/sweet that's at risk here. We also produce all of our own natural gas, have some of the lowest domestic prices in the world (Permian gas has literally gone negative in the past due to oversupply), and a huge amount of our energy infrastructure is set up for it (LNG is a whole other category that is far more expensive than regular gas delivery). Compare that to Europe, which lost its Russian pipeline supply, has minimal domestic production, and is heavily dependent on LNG and Middle East crude routed through exactly the chokepoints in question. Or Japan/South Korea, which import ~90%+ of their oil and a huge chunk transits Hormuz. Yes, the US sees secondary inflation effects, diesel feeds into everything, jet fuel into airfares, etc. I'm not saying zero impact. But "large scale inflation" comparable to what the EU is about to eat? No. The structural insulation is real, and it's why the US can posture militarily without the same domestic economic gun to its head that Europeans are faced with.
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
tim333 5mo ago
There's a limit to what we can do. Things were kind of stable before Trump went in bombing everything and I guess we a hoping he'll calm down and things can go on. There isn't an easy military solution to opening the straits it's hard to do diplomatic stuff with Trump issuing some new threat every 24 hours or so.

noah_buddy 5mo ago

Not true at all. USA will see large scale inflation. Oil and derivatives are basically the central global commodities.

motbus3 5mo ago
I'm not American. But couldn't this being held due to the mid terms? It already looks bad as is, but if inflation started escalating immediately with the conflict (or more than it is) wouldn't it make it for for electoral purposes?
- noah_buddy 5mo ago
  The party in charge initiated this and inflation / bad economy aren’t usually winning electoral strategies.

dgellow 5mo ago

Why wouldn’t that affect the US? Isn’t the price of oil global? It’s not like US oil will be sold for cheaper to the local population, if that would be the case the incentive would be to export at the higher price instead, no?

porknubbins 5mo ago
If you look at gas prices in Saudi Arabia, some of it is subsidised to be lower but clearly its much cheaper to be consuming your own energy vs purchasing it internationally for a variety of reasons. The size of the effect is a messy economics question, not a black and white thing.
ramesh31 5mo ago
[dead]
_DeadFred_ 5mo ago
Weird that this was flagged dead in 2 hours? HN is really on a propaganda narrative shaping kick with the flagged dead. ramesh31 2 hours ago [dead] | root | parent | prev | next [–] >"Why wouldn’t that affect the US? Isn’t the price of oil global? It’s not like US oil will be sold for cheaper to the local population, if that would be the case the incentive would be to export at the higher price instead, no?" Sure, oil is a global commodity, but "global price" doesn't mean uniform impact. The US has been a net petroleum exporter since 2020 and produces ~13M bpd domestically. WTI consistently trades at a discount to Brent, often 10%+. Gulf Coast refineries are configured for the heavy/sour crude we get from Canada and our own shale, not the Gulf-state light/sweet that's at risk here. We also produce all of our own natural gas, have some of the lowest domestic prices in the world (Permian gas has literally gone negative in the past due to oversupply), and a huge amount of our energy infrastructure is set up for it (LNG is a whole other category that is far more expensive than regular gas delivery). Compare that to Europe, which lost its Russian pipeline supply, has minimal domestic production, and is heavily dependent on LNG and Middle East crude routed through exactly the chokepoints in question. Or Japan/South Korea, which import ~90%+ of their oil and a huge chunk transits Hormuz. Yes, the US sees secondary inflation effects, diesel feeds into everything, jet fuel into airfares, etc. I'm not saying zero impact. But "large scale inflation" comparable to what the EU is about to eat? No. The structural insulation is real, and it's why the US can posture militarily without the same domestic economic gun to its head that Europeans are faced with.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]

tim333 5mo ago

There's a limit to what we can do. Things were kind of stable before Trump went in bombing everything and I guess we a hoping he'll calm down and things can go on. There isn't an easy military solution to opening the straits it's hard to do diplomatic stuff with Trump issuing some new threat every 24 hours or so.