6 ms·

They're difficult and hard to predict because they're still primitive, despite what their companies say. When (or if) they get advanced enough to deliver consis

They're difficult and hard to predict because they're still primitive, despite what their companies say. When (or if) they get advanced enough to deliver consistently, there will be no chance of being left behind, because even a kid will be able to use them effectively. Right now they're still at the gimmick level, although a very impressive one.

simonw 6mo ago
If the models get to a point of total consistency there's still a LOT that we need to figure out and learn about how to use them. Let's say models can exactly and correctly write any code you ask of them. - How do you break down a project into a sequence of requests to models? - How can you most effectively parallelize the work - models will never be instant, so there will always be benefits in working out how best to use several agents at once - Now that the models can handle the details of Lean, and Swift-UI, and Oracle stored procedures, and thousands of other technologies that you never got around to learning in the past... what can you do with those and how do you pick which projects to go after? - How do you collaborate with other engineers and designers and product people in a world where you can churn out the right code reliably in a few minutes? The models we have today are already effective enough to change the shape of our work as software engineers. As the models continue to improve figuring out and adapting to whatever that new shape is becomes even more complicated.
- croon 6mo ago
  I don't mean to be dismissive, but aren't you describing simply working on projects with a finite amount of human hours/capital, but substituting finite amount of tokens? I recognize all of those problems as project problems long before LLMs, so I'm not sure it addresses GPs point.
  - simonw 6mo ago
    Two key skills for any software engineer are prioritization and estimation. You need to be able to estimate how long an approach is likely to take in order to correctly prioritize your work. Coding agents throw a wrench in this because some of the stuff that used to take a long time doesn't take a long time any more. I'm finding my 25+ years of experience in estimating software has been completely thrown off - it's taking a whole lot of work for me to start building up those intuitions about what's quick and what takes a long time.

simonw 6mo ago

If the models get to a point of total consistency there's still a LOT that we need to figure out and learn about how to use them. Let's say models can exactly and correctly write any code you ask of them. - How do you break down a project into a sequence of requests to models? - How can you most effectively parallelize the work - models will never be instant, so there will always be benefits in working out how best to use several agents at once - Now that the models can handle the details of Lean, and Swift-UI, and Oracle stored procedures, and thousands of other technologies that you never got around to learning in the past... what can you do with those and how do you pick which projects to go after? - How do you collaborate with other engineers and designers and product people in a world where you can churn out the right code reliably in a few minutes? The models we have today are already effective enough to change the shape of our work as software engineers. As the models continue to improve figuring out and adapting to whatever that new shape is becomes even more complicated.

croon 6mo ago
I don't mean to be dismissive, but aren't you describing simply working on projects with a finite amount of human hours/capital, but substituting finite amount of tokens? I recognize all of those problems as project problems long before LLMs, so I'm not sure it addresses GPs point.
- simonw 6mo ago
  Two key skills for any software engineer are prioritization and estimation. You need to be able to estimate how long an approach is likely to take in order to correctly prioritize your work. Coding agents throw a wrench in this because some of the stuff that used to take a long time doesn't take a long time any more. I'm finding my 25+ years of experience in estimating software has been completely thrown off - it's taking a whole lot of work for me to start building up those intuitions about what's quick and what takes a long time.