5 ms·
Note that it doesn't count the cost of second- or third- order effects (like the cost from the price of oil going up by 50%). Since February 28, crude oil price
by nerdsniper 6mo ago
Note that it doesn't count the cost of second- or third- order effects (like the cost from the price of oil going up by 50%). Since February 28, crude oil prices increases cost $42 billion in the United States alone.
- incrudible 6mo agoWhat are the second- and third order effects of the Marg Bar Amrika Society getting a nuclear device (and the missiles to deliver it)?
- jjk166 6mo agoProbably comparable to North Korea getting a nuclear device and the missiles to deliver it.
- mrits 6mo agoDoes North Korea send missiles and drones to it's neighbors?
- jjk166 6mo agoYes. North Korea has a long history of exporting arms and missile technology to both its neighbors and further afield, including to Iran.
- energy123 6mo agoThis superficial analogy comes up a lot but these two states don't share anything in common aside from internal repression. They're diametrically opposed in their external behavior. Look at a small sampling of Iran's external actions in the region through the Quds force. The hundreds of thousands of Syrians killed by Hezbollah or the almost 300k dead in Yemen due to the Houthis. Iran's actions in 2019-2022 against CENTCOM bases in Iraq and elsewhere. The puppet Iraqi president propped up by PMF. North Korea doesn't do anything like this until very recently when they started sending troops to invade Ukraine. They don't organize their state around an expansionist death cult ideology. NK doesn't behave different due to owning a nuclear weapon. Before the 1990s they were like this too.
- jjk166 6mo agoNorth Korea routinely attacks South Korean and US assets in its area like the sinking of Cheonan. North Korea is strongly allied with its other neighbors China and Russia. Iran is not organized around an expansionist death cult. They have not expanded or attempted to expand at all. They are involved in lots of neighboring conflicts because they are in a region with lots of conflicts. We are also involved in lots of conflicts there. There is no possible closer comparison for a nuclear Iran than nuclear North Korea.
- mc32 6mo agoCompare the costs associated with keeping US troops in NKorea to contain that threat.
- whatisthiseven 6mo agoPeace in that region of the world, since you can't just bomb Iran consequence free anymore? MAD has had its virtues extolled, yet assume it won't work with another country because somehow they are even more irrational (if true). Even though that is exactly for whom the MAD strategy is designed and operates under. It is only the build up of Iran getting a nuclear weapon that is used to go to war. The game theory here seems rather simple, honestly. And if Iran is seen as hostile, we need to look at the countries for whom the USA allies with and what wars they launched in the region. And they are plausible nuclear capable where their neighbors are not. I think Israel is currently a larger aggressor, literally flattening more towns through demolition.
- stickfigure 6mo ago> Peace in that region of the world ...wat? You mean like the peace that Iran exports to the region, and the peace that all those protesters experienced a few months ago?
- convolvatron 6mo agothe right question to ask is how much worse is the situation now that tensions have been radically escalated without any meaningful path towards Iranian disarmament.
- qsera 6mo agoIt is interesting. Is the job of a leader (or the administration) to foresee threats before anyone else can see it coming? Is their job to make sure that it does not manifest? It is interesting that when they does it, the majority is against it, precisely because no one else could see it and can agree with the action of the administration? So it seems that if someone is a very good leader, they will be ridiculed by the very people they are trying to protect. I think this happens if the unit in question is a family, or a country. I am not picking sides in the on going crisis. But just making an observation.
- howmayiannoyyou 6mo agoExactly. - Many cannot accept its dangerous world. - Many don't understand that stewardship of nuclear weapons alone is a major undertaking that Iran cannot be trusted to manage. US & USSR alone has several near-miss detonations/launches. - Many will refuse to accept solely because 'orange man bad'. - Some are paid to criticize on influential online forums and HN makes no effort to moderate or police such activity.
- Arodex 6mo agoI guess you will be first in line for the invasion of North Korea, then?
- bigyabai 6mo ago> Many cannot accept its dangerous world. The ballistic missiles are the danger, and Iran already has those. There is no missile or reentry vehicle in Iran's possession that can credibly threaten the United States with a nuclear weapon. > US & USSR alone has several near-miss detonations/launches. According to Seymour Hersh, Israel was close to using their nuclear weapon as well. Why not focus on their disarmament first to deter Iranian retaliation? > Some are paid to criticize on influential online forums and HN makes no effort to moderate or police such activity. Please reread HN's guidelines if you don't want to be permabanned: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like.
- dashundchen 6mo agoWho shredded the 2015 agreement with Iran that had stopped them from enriching more uranium? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/04/29/science/iran-enriched-uranium-stockpile-nuclear-energy-bomb.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/04/29/science/iran-... Oh wait, that the Trump and his war criminal friends. They make the problem, blame it on someone else, and then claim they fixed it while making life worse for everyone else. Meanwhile Trump and his corrupt oligarch cronies are profiting massively.
- howmayiannoyyou 6mo ago[dead]
- _DeadFred_ 6mo agoFlagged dead push back: howmayiannoyyou 1 hour ago [dead] | root | parent | next [–] Regurgitation of talking points doesn't change the irrefutable fact that the JCPOA only kicked the can down the road & Iran was cheating the entire time - as they now admitted during negotiations.
- mrguyorama 6mo agoRemember when North Korea and Pakistan had to be prevented from developing nuclear weapons at all costs because they would obviously use them ASAP to kill as many people as they could because they were crazy? Remember when multiple US administrations have internally pushed for nuking Korea and Vietnam, and yet we are apparently still allowed to have nukes? Remember when Iran used to have a fully operational biological weapons program that they have dismantled as confirmed internationally. Iran has enough Uranium to make bombs. The physics package that actually detonates things is not as hard as enriching Uranium in bulk. Why hasn't Iran used a weapon of mass destruction yet in this almost existential war? I thought they were nuts? I thought they wanted to nuke all the infidels?
- Teever 6mo agoI think the bigger question that you should be asking is what is America going to do for the next 5 years without the stockpile of munitions that the just burned through.[0] China has every incentive to goad Israel or Iran into starting another round in this conflict so that America will deplete even more missiles. Iran destroying one of these[1] and an AWACS should startle everyone and with the right supplies from China Iran has the capacity to take out even more of them. So if in two months this conflict heats up again and we're looking at half of these radar systems destroyed and minimal amount of missiles available, would you consider it well worth it? Because that's a very plausible scenario and I'm very concerned about what the world will look like by the end of the summer if that comes to pass. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitio... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPY-2_transportable_radar# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPY-2_transportable_radar#
- cma 6mo agoNot to mention datacenters were bombed and, for specifically AI ones, the in-construction Stargate was threatened.
- NooneAtAll3 6mo agoto be fair US is net exporter now
- voxic11 6mo agonet exporter of petroleum products, US is still a net importer of crude.
- oseityphelysiol 6mo agoDoesn’t matter much in this case as US consumerd are still affected by the price rise same way consumers in a non-exporter country would be. I guess what matters is that the increase in revenue largely stays within the country, but that doesn’t help consumers directly.
- epistasis 6mo agoBeing a net exporter is completely irrelevant when prices are set globally. Such a statement is like shining a laser pointer to distract a cat, fun, but meaningless.
- newsclues 6mo agoYou do realize some net exporters subsidize their domestic supply to keep the people happy?
- alphawhisky 6mo agoThat means they're passing the cost onto the whole world. The US is making this war everyone else's problem and it's ruining foreign affairs and good standing with the world.
- epistasis 6mo agoDo I realize that? I know we pay a fuck ton of tax subsidies to oil extractors, but the only people keeping happy are the small "mom and pop" oil producers that eat up all that subsidy. Prices are still set on the international market, that subsidy does not affect prices. Or, do you have some other subsidy that brings down the prices that consumers in the US pay? If so, name it! If President Trump–who is so deep in oil & gas special interests that he has decided that US Taxpayers need to pay nearly $1B to cancel a wind power project–is going to start doing export controls to keep oil prices down, well then he runs into the problem that we export and import a ton to get the right type of crude in our refineries. If he is going to start subsidizing oil consumption, well, my god we are in for a wild ride on the economy and deserve all the misery that it will bring.
- mrits 6mo agoIt's so odd to me that people think the cost of oil going up is universally bad. It's good both morally for me and financially for many people.
- hgoel 6mo agoThe consequences to everyone that isn't as well fed as yourself are also good for you morally?
- mrits 6mo agoNothing keeps the people well feed like the inability to grow crops.
- Detrytus 6mo agoFunny that you say that, because LNG exports from Persian gulf being blocked will result in fertilizer shortages and potentially a famine.
- mrits 6mo agoMore short term thinking
- Detrytus 6mo agoWell, it seems to me that the liberal left agenda was kind of hijacked by big corporations. It used to be that Democrats cared about things like equal pay, labor conditions, education costs. Now it is all about abstract things that don’t matter in the real world: animal rights and carbon emissions. The “long term thinking” you allude to is just a mind trick to keep you at bay.
- AlexCoventry 6mo agoI think people are more concerned about the massive deindustrialization and famines which could result from the Strait of Hormuz being chaotically strangled, not the hit to their pocket books at the gas pump
- howmayiannoyyou 6mo agoWe increased export revenue by about $9b per month and may have changed the global energy supply chain to our benefit for decades.
- drnick1 6mo agoOil money flows back into the U.S. economy as a net exporter.
- wak90 6mo agoGood thing the US economy is Chevron stock value and nothing else.