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I think we are talking past each other. The increase in production capacity is irrelevant if you don't have a way to export the said production. My question w

I think we are talking past each other. The increase in production capacity is irrelevant if you don't have a way to export the said production. My question was specifically about the increase in the pipeline's capacity. Because your statement "As pointed out above Hormuz is being bypassed with ADCOP's capacity being ramped up." does not make sense otherwise. Chatgpt tell me this this: Short term: increase ADCOP from ~1.5 → ~1.8–2.0 mb/d (confirmed and achievable) Medium term: expand storage and export infrastructure at Fujairah Long term: build additional pipelines/corridors alongside ADCOP Short term is too small. Medium term does not help with the throughput, just better buffering. And the long term is, well, long term (= many, many years). Why could something that might happen many years in the future force the Iran to open Hormuz now? The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished, as this oil shock will result in much greater push for decarbonisation than all climate summits combined (and the technology -- mostly solar and long distance DC lines - is essentially ready, at a reasonable cost). The gulf states see this, so I am not 100% sure all those pushes for extra pipelines will come to fruition, once the Iran war cools down.

rramadass 6mo ago
No, we are not talking past each other ;-) You simply are not understanding my comments nor reading the provided informative links. There are three things to consider viz. 1) Production Capacity i.e. new wells/sources 2) Pipeline Capacity i.e. pipeline bandwidth and no. of pipelines 3) Storage Capacity i.e both at terminal/port and distributed worldwide. The Iran/Strait of Hormuz problem was foreseen long ago and the UAE specifically has been working on all three of the above. ADCOP construction was started March 2008, completed March 2011 and operational in June 2012. That gives you an idea of how fast things moved. The last link about infra above lists some possible ways to increase pipeline capacity which in the case of UAE is actually Short/Medium term (easily within 5 years) viz; ... as well as enhancements or parallel lines to the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah,” said Kpler oil analyst Grabenwöger ... In terms of timing, the UAE probably has the most flexibility to move relatively quickly on incremental projects ... There is also talk of extending ADCOP to the nearby Omani port of Duqm. Conlusion: “Five years from now, the Persian Gulf will have far better bypass options than it does today. No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical to the global economy as it was when the fighting started six weeks ago,” Blas wrote. > The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished This line tells me you have no idea of the Petroleum industry and its importance to the modern world. Our dependence on Oil will not go away in the next 50 years nor even 100 years. As an example, look up "Naptha shortage" to understand how vital the byproducts of crude oil refining/distillation are to our modern industries. There are over 6000 petrochemicals ! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical) Renewables only help with alternative energy sources, and given the way we have built our modern industries around petroleum they cannot meet all our needs. They can bring down our reliance on Oil but it is very longterm.
- don_esteban 6mo ago
  You yourself said "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options". That is very, very long term for what is now going on with Hormuz. Yes, petrochemicals have many, many applications. But those are not in millions barrels per day, that volume is driven primarily by transportation, that can (and is, currently) being replaced by electric.
  - rramadass 6mo ago
    You still are not reading any of the articles i have linked to nor understanding them. I did not say "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options"; that is the expert being quoted in the last linked article above. If you had read that you would know he was talking about the situation as a whole i.e. involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and other gulf countries all of whom are looking at ways to bypass Hormuz once and for all. Of these Saudi Arabia and UAE are the most ahead now and that is why UAE left OPEC to chart its own course since the others are lagging behind. Five years is definitely not long term but very aggressive for all gulf countries to setup infrastructure to bypass Hormuz. UAE is ahead of the game (with ADCOP since 2012) and it can easily setup its parallel lines in the next couple of years. Again, i recommend you actually do some research on renewables vs. petroleum needs. Most transportation which can use electric is small-scale (eg. cars) but aviation/shipping etc. need Oil for the foreseeable future. What is being done with renewables is to control pollution/greenhouse-effects (essential) and lower dependence on Oil (financial/geopolitical reasons). I have already pointed out the need for Petrochemicals. If you do some research on the share of renewable energy sources in some of the world's biggest economies (specifically China and India) you will see that it is still very small considering their current/future needs. Renewables have a long way to go before they can actually make a dent in the global Oil needs.
    - don_esteban 6mo ago
      I had a look over this entire chain of posts. We are still talking past each other. Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and to build up its ability to bypass Hormuz. My main point is that in the short-term (say before 2030), UAE has no way to significantly increase its capability to bypass Hormuz, so to make effective use of the increase of its production, it is still dependent on Hormuz. To quote from few posts above: Me: 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than half of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly. You: Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly. When pressed about 'being ramped up significantly', you pointed to sources about the production being ramped up significantly and build-up of port and storage facilities at Fujeira, and about plans to build a parallel pipeline in the future. That is not 'pipeline capacity being ramped up significantly', that is 'there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity'. Perhaps misunderstanding. Anyway, I do not really understand your pumping-up UAE future. The war has severely disturbed their non-oil income and continued regional instability would not bode well for their future (rich people do not like unsafe places). Their recall of Pakistan's line of credit, intention to leave OPEC and their super-hostile stance to Iran do not make them friends in the region. And relying on USA/Israel for security/help is only for fools.

rramadass 6mo ago

No, we are not talking past each other ;-) You simply are not understanding my comments nor reading the provided informative links. There are three things to consider viz. 1) Production Capacity i.e. new wells/sources 2) Pipeline Capacity i.e. pipeline bandwidth and no. of pipelines 3) Storage Capacity i.e both at terminal/port and distributed worldwide. The Iran/Strait of Hormuz problem was foreseen long ago and the UAE specifically has been working on all three of the above. ADCOP construction was started March 2008, completed March 2011 and operational in June 2012. That gives you an idea of how fast things moved. The last link about infra above lists some possible ways to increase pipeline capacity which in the case of UAE is actually Short/Medium term (easily within 5 years) viz; ... as well as enhancements or parallel lines to the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah,” said Kpler oil analyst Grabenwöger ... In terms of timing, the UAE probably has the most flexibility to move relatively quickly on incremental projects ... There is also talk of extending ADCOP to the nearby Omani port of Duqm. Conlusion: “Five years from now, the Persian Gulf will have far better bypass options than it does today. No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical to the global economy as it was when the fighting started six weeks ago,” Blas wrote. > The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished This line tells me you have no idea of the Petroleum industry and its importance to the modern world. Our dependence on Oil will not go away in the next 50 years nor even 100 years. As an example, look up "Naptha shortage" to understand how vital the byproducts of crude oil refining/distillation are to our modern industries. There are over 6000 petrochemicals ! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical) Renewables only help with alternative energy sources, and given the way we have built our modern industries around petroleum they cannot meet all our needs. They can bring down our reliance on Oil but it is very longterm.

don_esteban 6mo ago
You yourself said "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options". That is very, very long term for what is now going on with Hormuz. Yes, petrochemicals have many, many applications. But those are not in millions barrels per day, that volume is driven primarily by transportation, that can (and is, currently) being replaced by electric.
- rramadass 6mo ago
  You still are not reading any of the articles i have linked to nor understanding them. I did not say "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options"; that is the expert being quoted in the last linked article above. If you had read that you would know he was talking about the situation as a whole i.e. involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and other gulf countries all of whom are looking at ways to bypass Hormuz once and for all. Of these Saudi Arabia and UAE are the most ahead now and that is why UAE left OPEC to chart its own course since the others are lagging behind. Five years is definitely not long term but very aggressive for all gulf countries to setup infrastructure to bypass Hormuz. UAE is ahead of the game (with ADCOP since 2012) and it can easily setup its parallel lines in the next couple of years. Again, i recommend you actually do some research on renewables vs. petroleum needs. Most transportation which can use electric is small-scale (eg. cars) but aviation/shipping etc. need Oil for the foreseeable future. What is being done with renewables is to control pollution/greenhouse-effects (essential) and lower dependence on Oil (financial/geopolitical reasons). I have already pointed out the need for Petrochemicals. If you do some research on the share of renewable energy sources in some of the world's biggest economies (specifically China and India) you will see that it is still very small considering their current/future needs. Renewables have a long way to go before they can actually make a dent in the global Oil needs.
  - don_esteban 6mo ago
    I had a look over this entire chain of posts. We are still talking past each other. Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and to build up its ability to bypass Hormuz. My main point is that in the short-term (say before 2030), UAE has no way to significantly increase its capability to bypass Hormuz, so to make effective use of the increase of its production, it is still dependent on Hormuz. To quote from few posts above: Me: 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than half of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly. You: Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly. When pressed about 'being ramped up significantly', you pointed to sources about the production being ramped up significantly and build-up of port and storage facilities at Fujeira, and about plans to build a parallel pipeline in the future. That is not 'pipeline capacity being ramped up significantly', that is 'there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity'. Perhaps misunderstanding. Anyway, I do not really understand your pumping-up UAE future. The war has severely disturbed their non-oil income and continued regional instability would not bode well for their future (rich people do not like unsafe places). Their recall of Pakistan's line of credit, intention to leave OPEC and their super-hostile stance to Iran do not make them friends in the region. And relying on USA/Israel for security/help is only for fools.