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IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides.
by estearum 6mo ago
IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides.
- rapind 6mo agoPrediction markets are 90% sports gambling.
- vkou 6mo agoYou can also ban 100% of gambling advertising and get 100% of the (dubious, but I'll humour the possibility) 'benefits' of gambling, while removing 90% of the downsides.
- estearum 6mo agoAgreed with that too
- idle_zealot 6mo agoCan you explain the value you're talking about?
- estearum 6mo agoHighly liquid markets are good information compression systems, but existing financial markets tend to be impossible to disaggregate with regard to any discrete event you care about.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- neaden 6mo agoI'll be honest as someone who doesn't gamble my perception is the prediction markets are just people with inside information using that to con money out of people. I don't see the value in it.
- estearum 6mo agoWell if you think of the point as "winning money" then that really sucks (which I've discussed in prior comments as a big problem for overall participation). If the point is instead to extract and compress information into a simple numerical prediction, then the insider trading is arguably a feature more than a bug. Not to say it shouldn't be viciously punished, to be clear.