11 ms·

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economi

by netdur 5mo ago

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

thaumasiotes 5mo ago
Russia-led? Russia isn't even part of OPEC.
- MobiusHorizons 5mo ago
  I believe they are in opec+
  - willchis 5mo ago
    That's the ad-free version, it's an extra $12.99 a month.
    - WorldPeas 5mo ago
      it's not really worth it after the recent price-hike, they aren't putting out content like they used to
Havoc 5mo ago
UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system
- nimbius 5mo ago
  exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan. OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.
  - ericmay 5mo ago
    > the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something. Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally? I swear I read this same story over and over again. There's always just an accusation "thing happened, here's how the US is now in a state of being screwed" and there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too. Hypersonic missiles? US Navy is done for, no possible counter. Iran has drones? Boom. US is done for no way they can spend Patriot missile money on $30,000 Iranian drones. Nope, nothing anyone can do at all. Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Now they are "embarrassed" and "slammed". > OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz What does this mean? [1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-so-much-unsold-oil-that-its-stashing-it-in-derelict-tanks-ed8e62b1?mod=hp_lead_pos3 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-s...
    - asah 5mo ago
      "only the paranoid survive"
      - ericmay 5mo ago
        Yea there is some truth to that. The US is still in a wartime economy and cultural mode of thinking post-WWII (military budget, highway and infrastructure build, cultural characteristics around guns [1] and such). The downside is the degradation of quality of life, rage-bait, stress, those sorts of things. But if we have Americans constantly freaking out (and to some extent they should - being #1 is tough) about Chyna that does put pressure on the government to take these concerns seriously if they previously were not. [1] Not a 2nd Amendment criticism, I’m a strong supporter. More so the folks who load up on ammo and “cool” gear and all that stuff.
    - 5mo ago
- lotsofpulp 5mo ago
  >UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.
  - Havoc 5mo ago
    I don’t think the gulf is in same as always mode right now
    - Pay08 5mo ago
      They kind of are. Iran has been attacking everyone in the Middle East for decades, occasionally seizing or destroying ships in Hormuz, and funding internal dissent. Things are worse right now, but not that much worse, and the short-term pain might very well be worth it for the long-term reduction in Iran's capabilities.
      - thinkcontext 5mo ago
        Uh, from the UAE's perspective it is much worse. They sold many $Bs worth of oil and had become a global tourist hub, now they can't do those things. They are being patient for the time being but there's a limit. We don't know what that limit is but if 6 months go by and the Strait's not open can we really expect them to not pay Iran a toll and price their oil in yuan?
      - Ar-Curunir 5mo ago
        What are you talking about? This level of escalation hasn’t happened for at least a quarter century. I know, because I’ve lived in the gulf for large parts of that period
  - Eisenstein 5mo ago
    That doesn't mean the warnings were frivolous. There was ultimately a change in course which averted it. How sure are you that will be the case this time?
  - Cyph0n 5mo ago
- eightysixfour 5mo ago
  > UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan That is just UAE pressure to make sure they get their dollar swap deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currency-swap-with-uae-is-under-consideration-2026-04-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currenc...
  - Havoc 5mo ago
    Indeed it’s leverage but at same time they only need the swap because all is not well in petrodollar land.
    - eightysixfour 5mo ago
      I don't think there is any evidence that they actually need the dollar swap line - the dirham-dollar peg isn't at any risk and they have plenty of money for fiscal flexibility going into the foreseeable future. If you take financial reasons off of the table then it is clear it is just a political play for a bigger seat at the table with the US. The Saudis did it to Biden in 2023, the UAE sees the opportunity to do it to Trump now.
      - fakedang 5mo ago
        They need the dollars because they're an import-oriented economy, almost all of which are conducted in dollars (nobody wants their dirhams because oil is priced in dollars anyways). Dollars are also useful for their sovereign funds to invest into the US, either in the stock market, or in private equity. What happened this week - they announced they might start selling in yuan, they left the OPEC, and they started a new wealth fund to invest exclusively in China. That gives them an alternative for the dollar-peg since China is their biggest import partner anyways, while also giving their surplus yuan an alternative channel of investment into China. Still they need the dollar-swap for the essentials - food from India and Pakistan, neither of which will accept their dirhams unless they get exclusive deals (which are not allowed in OPEC). It helps for them that India and Pakistan need lots of oil, and that a dollar peg benefits the UAE more than it does either nation. If the EU plays a greater role in trade, particularly in defence and maritime manufacturing, they will stockpile euros too, to the detriment of the dollar. Still, they also bought some prime DC acreage to expand their US diplomatic corps, and will likely keep the Washington connection, so long as AI is perceived as useful. Right now, that's the only major export benefit the US provides the Gulf countries. This is them just hedging their bets.
- MattDamonSpace 5mo ago
  “Might” and either way breaking OPEC is good for the West, regardless of their intent defecting from the cartel, a tale as old as time
- elictronic 5mo ago
  Im not concerned with them selling with the yuan as China regularly screws around with its currency. The bigger issue is and other currencies which reduces the US impact. On the backside I’m sure there will be lots of fun back door deals around all those interceptors and future anti drone technologies. Today though the US has been the impetus of a lot of the current issues.
Pay08 5mo ago
Is "polic" a word?

by netdur 5mo ago

thaumasiotes 5mo ago

Russia-led? Russia isn't even part of OPEC.

MobiusHorizons 5mo ago
I believe they are in opec+
- willchis 5mo ago
  That's the ad-free version, it's an extra $12.99 a month.
  - WorldPeas 5mo ago
    it's not really worth it after the recent price-hike, they aren't putting out content like they used to

Havoc 5mo ago

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

nimbius 5mo ago
exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan. OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.
- ericmay 5mo ago
  > the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something. Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally? I swear I read this same story over and over again. There's always just an accusation "thing happened, here's how the US is now in a state of being screwed" and there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too. Hypersonic missiles? US Navy is done for, no possible counter. Iran has drones? Boom. US is done for no way they can spend Patriot missile money on $30,000 Iranian drones. Nope, nothing anyone can do at all. Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Now they are "embarrassed" and "slammed". > OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz What does this mean? [1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-so-much-unsold-oil-that-its-stashing-it-in-derelict-tanks-ed8e62b1?mod=hp_lead_pos3 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-s...
  - asah 5mo ago
    "only the paranoid survive"
    - ericmay 5mo ago
      Yea there is some truth to that. The US is still in a wartime economy and cultural mode of thinking post-WWII (military budget, highway and infrastructure build, cultural characteristics around guns [1] and such). The downside is the degradation of quality of life, rage-bait, stress, those sorts of things. But if we have Americans constantly freaking out (and to some extent they should - being #1 is tough) about Chyna that does put pressure on the government to take these concerns seriously if they previously were not. [1] Not a 2nd Amendment criticism, I’m a strong supporter. More so the folks who load up on ammo and “cool” gear and all that stuff.
  - 5mo ago
lotsofpulp 5mo ago
>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.
- Havoc 5mo ago
  I don’t think the gulf is in same as always mode right now
  - Pay08 5mo ago
    They kind of are. Iran has been attacking everyone in the Middle East for decades, occasionally seizing or destroying ships in Hormuz, and funding internal dissent. Things are worse right now, but not that much worse, and the short-term pain might very well be worth it for the long-term reduction in Iran's capabilities.
    - thinkcontext 5mo ago
      Uh, from the UAE's perspective it is much worse. They sold many $Bs worth of oil and had become a global tourist hub, now they can't do those things. They are being patient for the time being but there's a limit. We don't know what that limit is but if 6 months go by and the Strait's not open can we really expect them to not pay Iran a toll and price their oil in yuan?
    - Ar-Curunir 5mo ago
      What are you talking about? This level of escalation hasn’t happened for at least a quarter century. I know, because I’ve lived in the gulf for large parts of that period
- Eisenstein 5mo ago
  That doesn't mean the warnings were frivolous. There was ultimately a change in course which averted it. How sure are you that will be the case this time?
- Cyph0n 5mo ago
eightysixfour 5mo ago
> UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan That is just UAE pressure to make sure they get their dollar swap deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currency-swap-with-uae-is-under-consideration-2026-04-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currenc...
- Havoc 5mo ago
  Indeed it’s leverage but at same time they only need the swap because all is not well in petrodollar land.
  - eightysixfour 5mo ago
    I don't think there is any evidence that they actually need the dollar swap line - the dirham-dollar peg isn't at any risk and they have plenty of money for fiscal flexibility going into the foreseeable future. If you take financial reasons off of the table then it is clear it is just a political play for a bigger seat at the table with the US. The Saudis did it to Biden in 2023, the UAE sees the opportunity to do it to Trump now.
    - fakedang 5mo ago
      They need the dollars because they're an import-oriented economy, almost all of which are conducted in dollars (nobody wants their dirhams because oil is priced in dollars anyways). Dollars are also useful for their sovereign funds to invest into the US, either in the stock market, or in private equity. What happened this week - they announced they might start selling in yuan, they left the OPEC, and they started a new wealth fund to invest exclusively in China. That gives them an alternative for the dollar-peg since China is their biggest import partner anyways, while also giving their surplus yuan an alternative channel of investment into China. Still they need the dollar-swap for the essentials - food from India and Pakistan, neither of which will accept their dirhams unless they get exclusive deals (which are not allowed in OPEC). It helps for them that India and Pakistan need lots of oil, and that a dollar peg benefits the UAE more than it does either nation. If the EU plays a greater role in trade, particularly in defence and maritime manufacturing, they will stockpile euros too, to the detriment of the dollar. Still, they also bought some prime DC acreage to expand their US diplomatic corps, and will likely keep the Washington connection, so long as AI is perceived as useful. Right now, that's the only major export benefit the US provides the Gulf countries. This is them just hedging their bets.
MattDamonSpace 5mo ago
“Might” and either way breaking OPEC is good for the West, regardless of their intent defecting from the cartel, a tale as old as time
elictronic 5mo ago
Im not concerned with them selling with the yuan as China regularly screws around with its currency. The bigger issue is and other currencies which reduces the US impact. On the backside I’m sure there will be lots of fun back door deals around all those interceptors and future anti drone technologies. Today though the US has been the impetus of a lot of the current issues.

Pay08 5mo ago

Is "polic" a word?