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I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic

by redwood 6mo ago

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

nixon_why69 6mo ago
What happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?
- redwood 6mo ago
  Do you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer. If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like
  - nixon_why69 6mo ago
    Or it could be Really Really Bad Outcome, let's not be too flippant about this. Out of curiousity, what's your good outcome from the Chinese sending destroyers to the gulf?
    - redwood 6mo ago
      If the Chinese take on the burden of maintaining the free flow of shipping through the Gulf by stepping up as one of the key beneficiaries of said shipping that would simply be an appropriate burden sharing mechanism in my view.
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
torlok 6mo ago
I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.
- nixon_why69 6mo ago
  And, to add on, how much more it matters when a very rich population didn't sign up for this at all and has no vested interest in "winning" at cost.
- redwood 6mo ago
  This is a population that absolutely despises their government. At least a very large percentage are in that category. I think you misunderstand the reality on the ground
  - rigonkulous 6mo ago
    Iranians despise their government in about the same way that Americans despise their government - which is to say, both peoples got the government they deserve...
rigonkulous 6mo ago
hmm .. imho .. the supply chain between Iran, Russia, and China is .. radically .. under-estimated in the equation by those states who have lost control over the worlds energy supplies. It is more like the Western nations which cannot withstand another month of all this 'posturing' .. But there is some resilience to the idea that the Iran/Russia/China corridor is going to keep those nations relatively buffered from total disaster.

by redwood 6mo ago

nixon_why69 6mo ago

What happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?

redwood 6mo ago
Do you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer. If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like
- nixon_why69 6mo ago
  Or it could be Really Really Bad Outcome, let's not be too flippant about this. Out of curiousity, what's your good outcome from the Chinese sending destroyers to the gulf?
  - redwood 6mo ago
    If the Chinese take on the burden of maintaining the free flow of shipping through the Gulf by stepping up as one of the key beneficiaries of said shipping that would simply be an appropriate burden sharing mechanism in my view.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

torlok 6mo ago

I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.

nixon_why69 6mo ago
And, to add on, how much more it matters when a very rich population didn't sign up for this at all and has no vested interest in "winning" at cost.
redwood 6mo ago
This is a population that absolutely despises their government. At least a very large percentage are in that category. I think you misunderstand the reality on the ground
- rigonkulous 6mo ago
  Iranians despise their government in about the same way that Americans despise their government - which is to say, both peoples got the government they deserve...

rigonkulous 6mo ago

hmm .. imho .. the supply chain between Iran, Russia, and China is .. radically .. under-estimated in the equation by those states who have lost control over the worlds energy supplies. It is more like the Western nations which cannot withstand another month of all this 'posturing' .. But there is some resilience to the idea that the Iran/Russia/China corridor is going to keep those nations relatively buffered from total disaster.