4 ms·

If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less. Add dead heading and milage will increase even further. If cars still get about

If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less. Add dead heading and milage will increase even further. If cars still get about 200 000 miles of life like they do now then we'll have fewer cars, replaced more often, so still requiring the production of a similar number of cars. We'll need million mile cars to reduce that, and those don't appear to be coming from Tesla.

tristanj 6mo ago
> If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less People won't be driving at all. > still requiring the production of a similar number of cars. Doesn't address my point, that consumers won't be the ones buying cars. These cars will be sold to self-driving vehicle fleet managers, not consumers. Obviously, cars will still be made, but not consumer cars. The consumer car market is dead. > those don't appear to be coming from Tesla Tesla just killed its consumer vehicles Model X and Model S. Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan, both self-driving only vehicles, which don't have steering wheels.
- pjc50 6mo ago
  > Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan Building on the proven sales success of the Cybertruck?
- bryanlarsen 6mo ago
  > > If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less > People won't be driving at all. Poor choice of words. There will be more cars on the roads, not fewer. Somebody will have to build those cars. > Obviously, cars will still be made, but not consumer cars. The consumer car market is dead. But the car market is larger, not smaller, and that's what matters. Fleet vehicles are generall not cheaper than consumer vehicles; a new city bus is now $1M and not because city transport authorities are swimming in cash. > Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan, both self-driving only vehicles, which don't have steering wheels. Which is only one portion of the picture. Have they spent any effort on million mile batteries? Have they spent any effort on million mile suspensions? Have they spent any effort on million mile interiors -- nobody wants to get into a taxi with > 200 000 miles on the odo, but million mile trains and buses are fine because they're made of hard wearing material that is easy to deep clean. Taxi drivers generally run Toyota's and Mercedes' for a reason.
- dgroshev 6mo ago
  Do you live in a dorm with a shared bathroom? Most of your home is only used a few times a day. People buy cars because it's a little bubble of home away from home. They store their stuff in there, it smells like them, and they don't get stranger's vomit on a seat when they want to drive somewhere. The "people won't buy cars because self-driving" take just completely ignores the human nature.
  - tristanj 6mo ago
    I understand your argument but you are neglecting the numbers. The cost per mile for a personal EV is $0.75/mi. The cost per mile for a shared AV EV (at scale) is $0.40/mi. The cost savings are extremely significant. I would agree with you if these numbers were close (maybe 10% cheaper just to rideshare everywhere) but it will be nearly 50% cheaper to rideshare self-driving than own. Tens of millions of people are going to switch. Not to mention -- as more people switch to shared AV, the cost of ownership for humans goes UP even more. Fewer human drivers mean higher insurance rates, fewer personal cars are sold so the cost per car increases, personal car repair shops close and the cost of individual car repairs increases. Etc.
    - dgroshev 6mo ago
      You can make even larger savings by moving into a dorm tomorrow. Are you neglecting the numbers?
      - tristanj 6mo ago
        Are you neglecting the numbers? Dorms barely exist in the US. You couldn't move into a dorm even if you wanted to. They were effectively illegal to construct since the 1930s, regulated to death by the 1950s, and only recently rules on SROs were relaxed to allow them. I've seen "hacker houses" try and fail to make dorms. One I went to put three bunk beds in the basement, with 12 people living in the house. They eventually got shut down by the city for violating occupancy laws. If dorms were legal, more people would use them.
        6mo ago

tristanj 6mo ago

> If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less People won't be driving at all. > still requiring the production of a similar number of cars. Doesn't address my point, that consumers won't be the ones buying cars. These cars will be sold to self-driving vehicle fleet managers, not consumers. Obviously, cars will still be made, but not consumer cars. The consumer car market is dead. > those don't appear to be coming from Tesla Tesla just killed its consumer vehicles Model X and Model S. Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan, both self-driving only vehicles, which don't have steering wheels.

pjc50 6mo ago
> Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan Building on the proven sales success of the Cybertruck?
bryanlarsen 6mo ago
> > If this self driving future is better, people will be driving more, not less > People won't be driving at all. Poor choice of words. There will be more cars on the roads, not fewer. Somebody will have to build those cars. > Obviously, cars will still be made, but not consumer cars. The consumer car market is dead. But the car market is larger, not smaller, and that's what matters. Fleet vehicles are generall not cheaper than consumer vehicles; a new city bus is now $1M and not because city transport authorities are swimming in cash. > Tesla shifted focus into the Cybercab & Cybervan, both self-driving only vehicles, which don't have steering wheels. Which is only one portion of the picture. Have they spent any effort on million mile batteries? Have they spent any effort on million mile suspensions? Have they spent any effort on million mile interiors -- nobody wants to get into a taxi with > 200 000 miles on the odo, but million mile trains and buses are fine because they're made of hard wearing material that is easy to deep clean. Taxi drivers generally run Toyota's and Mercedes' for a reason.
dgroshev 6mo ago
Do you live in a dorm with a shared bathroom? Most of your home is only used a few times a day. People buy cars because it's a little bubble of home away from home. They store their stuff in there, it smells like them, and they don't get stranger's vomit on a seat when they want to drive somewhere. The "people won't buy cars because self-driving" take just completely ignores the human nature.
- tristanj 6mo ago
  I understand your argument but you are neglecting the numbers. The cost per mile for a personal EV is $0.75/mi. The cost per mile for a shared AV EV (at scale) is $0.40/mi. The cost savings are extremely significant. I would agree with you if these numbers were close (maybe 10% cheaper just to rideshare everywhere) but it will be nearly 50% cheaper to rideshare self-driving than own. Tens of millions of people are going to switch. Not to mention -- as more people switch to shared AV, the cost of ownership for humans goes UP even more. Fewer human drivers mean higher insurance rates, fewer personal cars are sold so the cost per car increases, personal car repair shops close and the cost of individual car repairs increases. Etc.
  - dgroshev 6mo ago
    You can make even larger savings by moving into a dorm tomorrow. Are you neglecting the numbers?
    - tristanj 6mo ago
      Are you neglecting the numbers? Dorms barely exist in the US. You couldn't move into a dorm even if you wanted to. They were effectively illegal to construct since the 1930s, regulated to death by the 1950s, and only recently rules on SROs were relaxed to allow them. I've seen "hacker houses" try and fail to make dorms. One I went to put three bunk beds in the basement, with 12 people living in the house. They eventually got shut down by the city for violating occupancy laws. If dorms were legal, more people would use them.
      - 6mo ago