4 ms·

> Wishful thinking and you sound flat out scared. The spin doctor's favorite move: Make your opponents look like they're irrational.

by 0rbiter 5mo ago

simianwords 5mo ago
If you think so: let’s have a bet. Do you think LLMs will increase or decrease in 5 years? You can make me look stupid in 5 years
- Obscurity4340 5mo ago
  Why wait?
- rdevilla 5mo ago
  Bitcoin "increased" over multiple five year horizons. That doesn't mean it solves a problem or actually has a concrete use case beyond gambling, which is precisely the point of the article - that you appear to have missed.
  - cucumber3732842 5mo ago
    >That doesn't mean it solves a problem or actually has a concrete use case beyond gambling The ability to move funds without government authorization serves as a valuable hedge to many.
    - rdevilla 5mo ago
      The asset is too volatile to do that while guaranteeing preservation of value. No matter. Miss me with these 3 month old LLM accounts shilling the latest tech snake oil.
      - cucumber3732842 5mo ago
        You're absolutely right it's volatile. But people are happy to kick some money into that asset and let it bounce up and down. Something is better than nothing for this use case. If they ever want to cash out under non-rushed circumstances, well it's volatile so just wait 6-12mo for a reasonable high. Lots of economies and industries are volatile too, or subject to volatile politics.
        rdevilla 5mo ago
        What you describe is paramount to gambling.
        cucumber3732842 5mo ago
        >What you describe is paramount to gambling. Lolwut? What are you talking about? Parking somme $$ in bitcoin in case you have government problems is no different than shoving money into land or gold in case you have stock market problems. The return is beside the point, it could be crap for all you care. The point is at least all your assets won't go to shit at the same time. It's damn near the opposite of gambling.
        Zecc 5mo ago
        > You're absolutely right This got a smirk out of me.
        cucumber3732842 5mo ago
        I'm really enjoying using LLM-isms as a whole new class of phrases I can screw around with. It's ind of like how you can mockingly invoke politically correct language in certain contexts.
aspenmartin 5mo ago
People who point out the immaturity of arguments like this and the simplicity of the worldview that espouses them aren’t “spin doctors”. The author has very clearly not thought deeply about what the real issues are: authoritarian governments w/surveillance (in 3-5 years a powerful LLM literally watching every single camera and signal feed on earth will be cheap enough that it will be done), alignment (the technical and non technical aspects of this), etc. you can choose from a huge list of real problems and do what adults do which is: see the writing on the wall, remember that the world doesn’t operate with the naïveté of an undergrad who has just stumbled upon a new topic and forms all of their opinions from poorly written newspaper headlines, roll up their sleeves, and contribute real solutions. Anyone who thinks any force on earth can stop this train is just really out of touch. It’s coming so make the best of it and contribute to making this ship land as softly as we can. > As Lopatto points out: “Normal people aren’t running around like chickens with their heads cut off, trying to automate every single part of their lives.“ Their biggest exposure to AI is using a tool like ChatGPT as a more verbose Google, or perhaps occasionally formatting an event itinerary. This is cool, and even useful, but at the moment it is probably less positively impactful in their lives than, say, the arrival of the iPod in the early 2000s. If this was written in 2022 it would be half coherent. To write that paragraph with a straight face today requires an impressive amount of ignorance
- eleventen 5mo ago
  Is the movement to pause or halt datacenter construction filled with naïve children or sleeve-roller-uppers?
  - aspenmartin 5mo ago
    Naive children unless they are simply trying to push better regulations and/or pressuring the builders to meet certain criteria that right now the law may not enforce. Data center construction is far from some evil thing it’s just that done poorly it can really screw people over. Easily should be a win win

> Wishful thinking and you sound flat out scared. The spin doctor's favorite move: Make your opponents look like they're irrational.

by 0rbiter 5mo ago

> Wishful thinking and you sound flat out scared. The spin doctor's favorite move: Make your opponents look like they're irrational.

simianwords 5mo ago

If you think so: let’s have a bet. Do you think LLMs will increase or decrease in 5 years? You can make me look stupid in 5 years

Obscurity4340 5mo ago
Why wait?
rdevilla 5mo ago
Bitcoin "increased" over multiple five year horizons. That doesn't mean it solves a problem or actually has a concrete use case beyond gambling, which is precisely the point of the article - that you appear to have missed.
- cucumber3732842 5mo ago
  >That doesn't mean it solves a problem or actually has a concrete use case beyond gambling The ability to move funds without government authorization serves as a valuable hedge to many.
  - rdevilla 5mo ago
    The asset is too volatile to do that while guaranteeing preservation of value. No matter. Miss me with these 3 month old LLM accounts shilling the latest tech snake oil.
    - cucumber3732842 5mo ago
      You're absolutely right it's volatile. But people are happy to kick some money into that asset and let it bounce up and down. Something is better than nothing for this use case. If they ever want to cash out under non-rushed circumstances, well it's volatile so just wait 6-12mo for a reasonable high. Lots of economies and industries are volatile too, or subject to volatile politics.
      - rdevilla 5mo ago
        What you describe is paramount to gambling.
        cucumber3732842 5mo ago
        >What you describe is paramount to gambling. Lolwut? What are you talking about? Parking somme $$ in bitcoin in case you have government problems is no different than shoving money into land or gold in case you have stock market problems. The return is beside the point, it could be crap for all you care. The point is at least all your assets won't go to shit at the same time. It's damn near the opposite of gambling.
      - Zecc 5mo ago
        > You're absolutely right This got a smirk out of me.
        cucumber3732842 5mo ago
        I'm really enjoying using LLM-isms as a whole new class of phrases I can screw around with. It's ind of like how you can mockingly invoke politically correct language in certain contexts.

aspenmartin 5mo ago

People who point out the immaturity of arguments like this and the simplicity of the worldview that espouses them aren’t “spin doctors”. The author has very clearly not thought deeply about what the real issues are: authoritarian governments w/surveillance (in 3-5 years a powerful LLM literally watching every single camera and signal feed on earth will be cheap enough that it will be done), alignment (the technical and non technical aspects of this), etc. you can choose from a huge list of real problems and do what adults do which is: see the writing on the wall, remember that the world doesn’t operate with the naïveté of an undergrad who has just stumbled upon a new topic and forms all of their opinions from poorly written newspaper headlines, roll up their sleeves, and contribute real solutions. Anyone who thinks any force on earth can stop this train is just really out of touch. It’s coming so make the best of it and contribute to making this ship land as softly as we can. > As Lopatto points out: “Normal people aren’t running around like chickens with their heads cut off, trying to automate every single part of their lives.“ Their biggest exposure to AI is using a tool like ChatGPT as a more verbose Google, or perhaps occasionally formatting an event itinerary. This is cool, and even useful, but at the moment it is probably less positively impactful in their lives than, say, the arrival of the iPod in the early 2000s. If this was written in 2022 it would be half coherent. To write that paragraph with a straight face today requires an impressive amount of ignorance

eleventen 5mo ago
Is the movement to pause or halt datacenter construction filled with naïve children or sleeve-roller-uppers?
- aspenmartin 5mo ago
  Naive children unless they are simply trying to push better regulations and/or pressuring the builders to meet certain criteria that right now the law may not enforce. Data center construction is far from some evil thing it’s just that done poorly it can really screw people over. Easily should be a win win