4 ms·
Likewise, if I were to roll a die 100,000 times there will likely be a nonzero number of periods where I roll a 4 or better over 20 times in a row! (Numbers mad
by crux_ 18y ago
Likewise, if I were to roll a die 100,000 times there will likely be a nonzero number of periods where I roll a 4 or better over 20 times in a row! (Numbers made up because this is arguing on the internet.)
Entrepreneurship isn't even a pseudoscience, by the way, in the same sense that raising a family isn't. Apples, oranges. ('Economics' would qualify.)
- ryanwaggoner 18y agoRolling a die is a truly random act, where the initiator has no control over the outcome. I don't think the same can be said for entrepreneurship, raising a family, or investing. I don't think they're apples and oranges at all. Just as many money managers (investors) may end up getting lucky through no merit of their own, many businesses succeed or fail due to random chance, and many kids turn out horribly even though they grew up in stable, loving homes. Does that mean that your success in entrepreneurship and raising a family are pure chance? I don't think that the YC approach to investment carries the same amount of risk as someone going to crunchbase and investing in random companies they find there. Surely there's some value to studying what has worked in the past and trying to apply it to future endeavors.
- crux_ 18y agoI'm simply pointing out that the existence of successful investors doesn't itself carry any information about why they might be successful. As for the rest, well, yes, it is apples and oranges. What hypotheses does entrepreneurship make about way the world works? Is the purpose of doing so to explain or enlighten? Even religion is more scientific in its goal. It's like calling pottery or engineering or writing a (pseudo-)science. (Ceramic chemistry, physics, or linguistics would all count.... see?)