3 ms·

While in the hindsight Dubai turned out to not make sense as a "global" city, it still might make sense for its vast "region". I mean for the 2.1 billion livin

by saljar 18y ago

While in the hindsight Dubai turned out to not make sense as a "global" city, it still might make sense for its vast "region". I mean for the 2.1 billion living between Europe and South East Asia, (with a combined economy worth $1.8 trillion in terms of GDP, growing until recently at an annual rate of 5 per cent.) namely: North and Eastern Africa, the Levant, the Caspian, the Indian Subcontinent and the GCC States. Dubai is not Las Vegas/Miami/New York, but for these 2.1 billion, a tuned-down version of these, even blended chaotically in a small city-state, would still completely make sense. I am long Dubai.

potatolicious 18y ago
This makes no sense. Vegas is popular because it is a central destination that is both cheap to get to and has a wide "scalability" in terms of spending. You can go as lavish or as run-down as you feel like, and that's part of the charm. It's pretty darned expensive to get to Dubai from southeast Asia, and not to mention if you're talking about "hub of entertainment" you already have major cities like Shanghai and Macau. Why would the 1.6+ billion people living in China head all the way out to Dubai when there are plenty of "global" cities right on its doorstep? Not to mention these cities are actually based on real industries, real exports of real goods, and have an economy that doesn't rely on hype and speculation. Dubai has no future. It doesn't even have that many oil holdings, nor does it sit in the middle of a large industrial economy. It has no reason to exist at the scale that people seem to think it deserves.
- ijntybvrt 18y ago
  It's a safe (politically, legally, physically) place in an unstable region to base your headquarters or send your workers for R+R. Monaco has survived for 500years for similar reasons without a great deal of mineral wealth.
  - gaius 18y ago
    All of those things you describe need to be underwritten by solid economics. Rather than Monaco, think Switzerland. Or better yet, Malta.
    - netcan 18y ago
      Economies are complex. It's simplistic to think of Dubai as simply smoke & mirrors. I would have said Singapore or Hong Kong. IE, Dubai is (was) a comfortable outpost for the (extremely profitable in good years) companies doing business in the region. If you need a base from which to conduct your dealings with Saudi or Iran, Riyadh or Tehran aren't as attractive as Dubai. Beijing wasn't either 25 years ago. Then you have the second level of the economy. The financial services & the like servicing the companies that chase their customers out there. Then you have a large number of cashed up expats with less family, more income & fewer vestige expenses. You have the industries catering to them (real estate, entertainment). Then you have the industries that are comfortable extensions of this local luxury entertainment market. Tourists, tax refuge, criminals (eg money laundering). There is n doubt that this was an obvious bubble. Especially in real estate. But directly selling commodities is not the only way to make a buck. That's compounded by the fact that no-one is sentimental about Dubai. If luxury apartment population starts to drop, that's it.
- saljar 18y ago
  2.1 billion people was the figure for people living between Europe and South East Asia (i.e North and Eastern Africa, the Levant, the Caspian, the Indian Subcontinent and the GCC States). China is of course a different story. Giorgio Armani once said "Dubai is the new New York. It's the New York of the 21st century" (http://tinyurl.com/aqc63r http://tinyurl.com/aqc63r). It turns out not to be as he thought, but for these 2.1 billion people, a cheap flight away from their cities, Dubai will always have its appeal.

by saljar 18y ago

potatolicious 18y ago

This makes no sense. Vegas is popular because it is a central destination that is both cheap to get to and has a wide "scalability" in terms of spending. You can go as lavish or as run-down as you feel like, and that's part of the charm. It's pretty darned expensive to get to Dubai from southeast Asia, and not to mention if you're talking about "hub of entertainment" you already have major cities like Shanghai and Macau. Why would the 1.6+ billion people living in China head all the way out to Dubai when there are plenty of "global" cities right on its doorstep? Not to mention these cities are actually based on real industries, real exports of real goods, and have an economy that doesn't rely on hype and speculation. Dubai has no future. It doesn't even have that many oil holdings, nor does it sit in the middle of a large industrial economy. It has no reason to exist at the scale that people seem to think it deserves.

ijntybvrt 18y ago
It's a safe (politically, legally, physically) place in an unstable region to base your headquarters or send your workers for R+R. Monaco has survived for 500years for similar reasons without a great deal of mineral wealth.
- gaius 18y ago
  All of those things you describe need to be underwritten by solid economics. Rather than Monaco, think Switzerland. Or better yet, Malta.
  - netcan 18y ago
    Economies are complex. It's simplistic to think of Dubai as simply smoke & mirrors. I would have said Singapore or Hong Kong. IE, Dubai is (was) a comfortable outpost for the (extremely profitable in good years) companies doing business in the region. If you need a base from which to conduct your dealings with Saudi or Iran, Riyadh or Tehran aren't as attractive as Dubai. Beijing wasn't either 25 years ago. Then you have the second level of the economy. The financial services & the like servicing the companies that chase their customers out there. Then you have a large number of cashed up expats with less family, more income & fewer vestige expenses. You have the industries catering to them (real estate, entertainment). Then you have the industries that are comfortable extensions of this local luxury entertainment market. Tourists, tax refuge, criminals (eg money laundering). There is n doubt that this was an obvious bubble. Especially in real estate. But directly selling commodities is not the only way to make a buck. That's compounded by the fact that no-one is sentimental about Dubai. If luxury apartment population starts to drop, that's it.
saljar 18y ago
2.1 billion people was the figure for people living between Europe and South East Asia (i.e North and Eastern Africa, the Levant, the Caspian, the Indian Subcontinent and the GCC States). China is of course a different story. Giorgio Armani once said "Dubai is the new New York. It's the New York of the 21st century" (http://tinyurl.com/aqc63r http://tinyurl.com/aqc63r). It turns out not to be as he thought, but for these 2.1 billion people, a cheap flight away from their cities, Dubai will always have its appeal.