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The three companies mentioned have together maybe up to 50k employees (quick internet search, don't quote me on that). 11 of them (various roles, some out of th

by buran77 6mo ago

The three companies mentioned have together maybe up to 50k employees (quick internet search, don't quote me on that). 11 of them (various roles, some out of the game for years) dying or going missing over many years in a country with a pretty high criminality and suicide rates rates doesn't sound very surprising.

MagicMoonlight 6mo ago
They’re also some of the most strategically valuable companies if you are say an evil country that wants to build long range nuclear missiles or advance your space programme.
- b9apratus 6mo ago
  [dead]
ineedasername 6mo ago
Out of 50k people? These specific of backgrounds and scenarios of their death/disappearence? No. That is surprising. Any statistics you'd find about the rates of any one or more of these kinds of disappearances are going to be population level, averaged out over groups that are much higher risk and therefore skew the average rates to seem higher than their priors actually dictate for many sub populations, eg, working professionals at large corporations of this specific type. Surprising != something actually being connected, but it sure as hell is surprising and isn't something to dismiss as "well, law of large numbers so ::shrug::"
- buran77 6mo ago
  > No. That is surprising. I'm genuinely curious if you found any data to support it especially when you add JPL, Los Alamos National Laboratory, MIT, Caltech, and the Kansas City National Security Campus to the list, over four years. And what puts an even bigger question mark on the whole thing is that the FBI embarked on this whole thing after being asked by members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform when they read about it in the newspaper. How critical are these people and how surprising their final fate if the US needs a tabloid to ring the alarm?
tomjakubowski 6mo ago
annual suicide rate in the US is ~13 per 100k, murder is ~5 per 100k. so from a cohort of 50k people, we'd expect about 9 to die from one or the other per year. and these 11 deaths under investigation were over 4 years. so, yeah: my suspicion is that nothing special is happening here. the big grain of salt: this doesn't take into account the differences in social and economic demographics of researchers and suicide + homicide victims. I'd suspect scientists skew wealthy and are less likely than average to be victims of suicide or homicide, but I don't know.

by buran77 6mo ago

MagicMoonlight 6mo ago

They’re also some of the most strategically valuable companies if you are say an evil country that wants to build long range nuclear missiles or advance your space programme.

b9apratus 6mo ago
[dead]

ineedasername 6mo ago

Out of 50k people? These specific of backgrounds and scenarios of their death/disappearence? No. That is surprising. Any statistics you'd find about the rates of any one or more of these kinds of disappearances are going to be population level, averaged out over groups that are much higher risk and therefore skew the average rates to seem higher than their priors actually dictate for many sub populations, eg, working professionals at large corporations of this specific type. Surprising != something actually being connected, but it sure as hell is surprising and isn't something to dismiss as "well, law of large numbers so ::shrug::"

buran77 6mo ago
> No. That is surprising. I'm genuinely curious if you found any data to support it especially when you add JPL, Los Alamos National Laboratory, MIT, Caltech, and the Kansas City National Security Campus to the list, over four years. And what puts an even bigger question mark on the whole thing is that the FBI embarked on this whole thing after being asked by members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform when they read about it in the newspaper. How critical are these people and how surprising their final fate if the US needs a tabloid to ring the alarm?

tomjakubowski 6mo ago

annual suicide rate in the US is ~13 per 100k, murder is ~5 per 100k. so from a cohort of 50k people, we'd expect about 9 to die from one or the other per year. and these 11 deaths under investigation were over 4 years. so, yeah: my suspicion is that nothing special is happening here. the big grain of salt: this doesn't take into account the differences in social and economic demographics of researchers and suicide + homicide victims. I'd suspect scientists skew wealthy and are less likely than average to be victims of suicide or homicide, but I don't know.