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Any alignment between China and Europe will be short lived. China is more technologically advanced than Europe, it doesn't need anything from Europe. Europe has

Any alignment between China and Europe will be short lived. China is more technologically advanced than Europe, it doesn't need anything from Europe. Europe has little to offer China other than being a market to export Chinese goods, and political sway to hamper the Americans. The relationship has no mutual self-interest, it's one sided, and is bound to fall apart. China's undemocratic political system and mercantilist behavior are not reconcilable issues. These issues will compound over time to a breaking point. To counter the persistent trade deficit with China, Europe will need to impose a tariff on Chinese imports, otherwise its industry will be overrun by Chinese manufacturing and millions of jobs will be lost. This is already happening. Or Europe can accept China as the senior partner in the relationship, which it won't, due to pride and the European ideal that all countries are equal on the world stage. These are not solvable issues, the EU and China are not aligned at a fundamental level. In contrast, EU/Russia and EU/US relationships actually make more sense, because both partners have mutual self-interest to maintain a relationship.

bryanlarsen 6mo ago
Europe doesn't offer anything for China except customers, which is pretty much the only thing China wants from the world.
taffydavid 6mo ago
> In contrast, EU/Russia and EU/US relationships actually make more sense, because both partners have mutual self-interest to maintain a relationship. Would love to know how you can defend the claim that the EU and China are fundamentally not aligned, unlike the EU Russia and EU US. Russia is at war with a country that wants to join the EU. The US almost invaded EU territory at the start of this year and threatened to leave NATO. China and the EU have done nothing but sign trade agreements throughout all that time
- shmeeed 6mo ago
  To be fair, up until 2022 and 2025 respectively, the common understanding was that EU/US and even EU/Russian relationships were beneficial for all parties involved. Then both relationships were unnecessarily and unilaterally broken, and China profited from that. People here like to dump on the EU, but I' argue that considering they were betrayed by two of their most important strategic partners within a span of four years, they're still holding up quite well.
- tristanj 6mo ago
  Russia has cheap energy and abundant natural resources, but lacks industrial capacity. Europe needs both, and has decent industry. There is mutually beneficial trade. The US has the world's strongest military. The US offers Europe military protection in exchange for military access and political sway to maintain its position as the global hegemon. In exchange, Europe gets to export its goods to the US, backs up the US on the world stage, and Europe profits from a trade surplus. It's win-win. A Europe-China deal has neither of these. China does not have abundant natural resources to export. And China will never provide military protection to Europe. And China does not need anything from Europe. The best Europe can offer is market access, to buy Chinese overproduced manufacturing, but that will decimate Europe's industry. Europe doesn't have an equivalent good that China needs, so it will run a trade deficit, which is a losing trade in the long term. It's win-lose: China wins, Europe loses. A relationship with China will never provide the same level of benefits as Europe's relationships with the US or Russia. Any idea of Europe replacing its relationships with a new one with China is a short sighted knee-jerk reaction.
  - taffydavid 6mo ago
    I agree that Europe has things that Russia needs and vice versa, and that China does not need as much from Europe. This would be the basis of great trade relationships if Russia were not also trying to fragment Europe. We can't think purely in capitalistic terms when there are non capitalistic motives. China, long term, may be a less needy trade partner, but they are not trying to destabilize Europe. It's far more short-sighted to go into business with someone who's trying to burn your house down, rather than try and trade with the rich guy down the street who might not give you the best deal
vrganj 6mo ago
> Europe has little to offer China other than being a market to export Chinese goods So nothing except the world's largest market of wealthy consumers, the very thing the Chinese economy needs. Seems like you're underplaying the European hand here...
- tristanj 6mo ago
  China does not need the European market, China's economy is practically fully sufficient. Chinese consumers mostly buy domestically produced products. European imports are mostly luxury goods (optional) or manufacturing machines (not for consumers). If you go to a hypermarket in China, you will be hard pressed to find European products for sale. In contrast, if you go shopping at a European hypermarket, >50% of the items sold are imported from China. Europe heavily relies on China for its domestic consumption. Without cheap Chinese goods, costs would go up, and European quality of life would decline. We can see the relationship is imbalanced with statistics, because Europe runs a €350 billion annual trade deficit with China. And the world's largest market of wealthy consumers is the US, not Europe.
  - vrganj 6mo ago
    China has a huge problem with overproduction. It doesn't need imports, it needs somewhere to export to or their whole economy collapses. That trade deficit is precisely what China needs and what Europe brings to the table. Europe has about twice the population of the US.
    - tristanj 6mo ago
      How will Europe fund its €350 billion annual trade deficit with China? A decade ago, the trade deficit was half as much. This amount is increasing every year. With the impending collapse of European ICE auto manufacturing, and replacement with Chinese EVs, this amount will increase even faster. What will Europe give China in exchange? Europe pays for its trade deficit by transferring wealth from Europe to China. It amassed this wealth through centuries of colonialism. The deal you are proposing makes Europe poorer, and China richer. Every year, compounding. Europe loses, China wins. And pretending that China will face "economic collapse" if it doesn't export its goods to Europe is delusional. Chinese exports to Europe are only 3.0% of Chinese GDP, practically nothing. China does not need Europe.
tim333 6mo ago
I think you're over thinking things. China has traded with Europe for many centuries and it will continue. If we have some tariffs then so what? The Chinese buy a lot of European high end fashion - Gucci, Prada, Rolex etc. In the UK a lot come to study. The technology thing is complicated. Europe still makes quite a lot of high end stuff like Airbus, Rolls Royce jet engines, Mercs, German/Swiss machine tooling, F1 cars etc. But the Chinese are cheaper for normal gizmos.

bryanlarsen 6mo ago

Europe doesn't offer anything for China except customers, which is pretty much the only thing China wants from the world.

taffydavid 6mo ago

> In contrast, EU/Russia and EU/US relationships actually make more sense, because both partners have mutual self-interest to maintain a relationship. Would love to know how you can defend the claim that the EU and China are fundamentally not aligned, unlike the EU Russia and EU US. Russia is at war with a country that wants to join the EU. The US almost invaded EU territory at the start of this year and threatened to leave NATO. China and the EU have done nothing but sign trade agreements throughout all that time

shmeeed 6mo ago
To be fair, up until 2022 and 2025 respectively, the common understanding was that EU/US and even EU/Russian relationships were beneficial for all parties involved. Then both relationships were unnecessarily and unilaterally broken, and China profited from that. People here like to dump on the EU, but I' argue that considering they were betrayed by two of their most important strategic partners within a span of four years, they're still holding up quite well.
tristanj 6mo ago
Russia has cheap energy and abundant natural resources, but lacks industrial capacity. Europe needs both, and has decent industry. There is mutually beneficial trade. The US has the world's strongest military. The US offers Europe military protection in exchange for military access and political sway to maintain its position as the global hegemon. In exchange, Europe gets to export its goods to the US, backs up the US on the world stage, and Europe profits from a trade surplus. It's win-win. A Europe-China deal has neither of these. China does not have abundant natural resources to export. And China will never provide military protection to Europe. And China does not need anything from Europe. The best Europe can offer is market access, to buy Chinese overproduced manufacturing, but that will decimate Europe's industry. Europe doesn't have an equivalent good that China needs, so it will run a trade deficit, which is a losing trade in the long term. It's win-lose: China wins, Europe loses. A relationship with China will never provide the same level of benefits as Europe's relationships with the US or Russia. Any idea of Europe replacing its relationships with a new one with China is a short sighted knee-jerk reaction.
- taffydavid 6mo ago
  I agree that Europe has things that Russia needs and vice versa, and that China does not need as much from Europe. This would be the basis of great trade relationships if Russia were not also trying to fragment Europe. We can't think purely in capitalistic terms when there are non capitalistic motives. China, long term, may be a less needy trade partner, but they are not trying to destabilize Europe. It's far more short-sighted to go into business with someone who's trying to burn your house down, rather than try and trade with the rich guy down the street who might not give you the best deal

vrganj 6mo ago

> Europe has little to offer China other than being a market to export Chinese goods So nothing except the world's largest market of wealthy consumers, the very thing the Chinese economy needs. Seems like you're underplaying the European hand here...

tristanj 6mo ago
China does not need the European market, China's economy is practically fully sufficient. Chinese consumers mostly buy domestically produced products. European imports are mostly luxury goods (optional) or manufacturing machines (not for consumers). If you go to a hypermarket in China, you will be hard pressed to find European products for sale. In contrast, if you go shopping at a European hypermarket, >50% of the items sold are imported from China. Europe heavily relies on China for its domestic consumption. Without cheap Chinese goods, costs would go up, and European quality of life would decline. We can see the relationship is imbalanced with statistics, because Europe runs a €350 billion annual trade deficit with China. And the world's largest market of wealthy consumers is the US, not Europe.
- vrganj 6mo ago
  China has a huge problem with overproduction. It doesn't need imports, it needs somewhere to export to or their whole economy collapses. That trade deficit is precisely what China needs and what Europe brings to the table. Europe has about twice the population of the US.
  - tristanj 6mo ago
    How will Europe fund its €350 billion annual trade deficit with China? A decade ago, the trade deficit was half as much. This amount is increasing every year. With the impending collapse of European ICE auto manufacturing, and replacement with Chinese EVs, this amount will increase even faster. What will Europe give China in exchange? Europe pays for its trade deficit by transferring wealth from Europe to China. It amassed this wealth through centuries of colonialism. The deal you are proposing makes Europe poorer, and China richer. Every year, compounding. Europe loses, China wins. And pretending that China will face "economic collapse" if it doesn't export its goods to Europe is delusional. Chinese exports to Europe are only 3.0% of Chinese GDP, practically nothing. China does not need Europe.

tim333 6mo ago

I think you're over thinking things. China has traded with Europe for many centuries and it will continue. If we have some tariffs then so what? The Chinese buy a lot of European high end fashion - Gucci, Prada, Rolex etc. In the UK a lot come to study. The technology thing is complicated. Europe still makes quite a lot of high end stuff like Airbus, Rolls Royce jet engines, Mercs, German/Swiss machine tooling, F1 cars etc. But the Chinese are cheaper for normal gizmos.