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What does "fully caught up" mean in the context of an ever evolving technology? I think I'm in support of open weight models (though there are safety implicatio

What does "fully caught up" mean in the context of an ever evolving technology? I think I'm in support of open weight models (though there are safety implications), but these things aren't cheap to train and run. This fact alone gives no incentive for leading labs to release cutting edge open weight models. Why spend the money then give the product for free? Now if "fully caught up" means today's level of intelligence is available for free in two years, by then that level of intelligence means very little

stavros 6mo ago
Yeah I don't understand it, it's a marathon with three companies perpetually a minute ahead, and people keep saying "I expect the stragglers to catch up". The only thing I can see them meaning is what you said, "in a minute the stragglers will be where the leaders were a minute ago", which, yeah, sure.
- mrbombastic 6mo ago
  It makes perfect sense if you think things cannot improve indefinitely
  - inciampati 6mo ago
    They do approximate any function... within the range they're trained on. And that range is human limited, at least today.
  - PunchyHamster 6mo ago
    Also, there is a good enough point where improvements for a given use case are on heavy diminishing returns
- patrickmcnamara 6mo ago
  It's not a marathon, or any race. There is no a finish line. It doesn't matter that much that someone is a minute ahead.
- ReliantGuyZ 6mo ago
  By my estimation, there is a point where these models are "good enough" for the vast vast majority of all appropriate tasks, after which point further investment by the major labs will have diminishing returns. While they might stay ahead by some measure, the open models will be good enough too, and I assume significantly cheaper like they are now. Or AGI hits and this theory collapses, but that's feeling less likely every day.
- lelanthran 6mo ago
  That's fine. I can afford to wait a minute if it means I pay $10/m instead of $5k/m.
vorticalbox 6mo ago
It’s never free your shifting costs from paying a company for their api use vs the power costs of running it locally.
- danny_codes 6mo ago
  Sure, but it’ll be orders of magnitude cheaper in a few years. The consumer industry is already moving in this direction, with Apple leading the pack

stavros 6mo ago

Yeah I don't understand it, it's a marathon with three companies perpetually a minute ahead, and people keep saying "I expect the stragglers to catch up". The only thing I can see them meaning is what you said, "in a minute the stragglers will be where the leaders were a minute ago", which, yeah, sure.

mrbombastic 6mo ago
It makes perfect sense if you think things cannot improve indefinitely
- inciampati 6mo ago
  They do approximate any function... within the range they're trained on. And that range is human limited, at least today.
- PunchyHamster 6mo ago
  Also, there is a good enough point where improvements for a given use case are on heavy diminishing returns
patrickmcnamara 6mo ago
It's not a marathon, or any race. There is no a finish line. It doesn't matter that much that someone is a minute ahead.
ReliantGuyZ 6mo ago
By my estimation, there is a point where these models are "good enough" for the vast vast majority of all appropriate tasks, after which point further investment by the major labs will have diminishing returns. While they might stay ahead by some measure, the open models will be good enough too, and I assume significantly cheaper like they are now. Or AGI hits and this theory collapses, but that's feeling less likely every day.
lelanthran 6mo ago
That's fine. I can afford to wait a minute if it means I pay $10/m instead of $5k/m.

vorticalbox 6mo ago

It’s never free your shifting costs from paying a company for their api use vs the power costs of running it locally.

danny_codes 6mo ago
Sure, but it’ll be orders of magnitude cheaper in a few years. The consumer industry is already moving in this direction, with Apple leading the pack