3 ms·

A Renaissance gambling dispute spawned probability theory

121 points by sohkamyung 6mo ago

skywal_l 6mo ago
> a French gambler and intellectual socialite enlisted the help Imagine Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat teaming together to solve your problem.
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
The_Blade 6mo ago
Luca Pacioli invented (or really, put down on paper) double-entry accounting it is funny how probability has always been way behind other maths. i got to use the Birthday problem at work, once, which made the math undergrad totally worth it fortunately my Polymarket and Kalshi wagers are protected by AES et al
- c7b 6mo ago
  As one lecturer put it: modern probability theory derived from two foundations - measure theory and gambling. The latter explains why it has long lacked mainstream mathematical recognition :) But that's all in the past. Probability is absolutely established in math academia today, Fields medals and all. And despite its applied nature it's pervasive even in pure math.
- sorokod 6mo ago
  In what way was it always behind? This work of Fermat and Pascal is ballpark contemporary to the development of calculus.
  - seanhunter 6mo ago
    Right, and Cauchy is the person we have to thank for Bayes’ Theorem, and of course Euler, De Moivre, Poisson and Gauss for the Gaussian integral[1]. You can’t really get figures more central to mathematics than that. [1] Athough Gauss apparently credited it to Laplace.
    - sorokod 6mo ago
      Most of the names you mention belong to the next (18th) century. Gauss worked out some sort of probability distribution too.
      - deleted 6mo ago
        [deleted]
benbreen 6mo ago
Just wanted to flag that the works of Ian Hacking, especially The Emergence of Probability (1975) and The Taming of Chance (1990) are excellent on this. Dense and challenging at times but also well written and the product of a very original mind. The latter book has a Wikipedia page with some more info - was surprised to see Hacking not mentioned here since the featured article is partly based on his work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Taming_of_Chance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Taming_of_Chance
- pjacotg 6mo ago
  I'm busy reading a book [0] by Keith Devlin about the correspondence between Pascal and Fermat. It's called the unfinished game and has been really good so far. It goes through the letters and provides some context around them. [0] https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/4443547-the-unfinished-game https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/4443547-the-unfinishe...
joenot443 6mo ago
The article links to a series of letters between Fermat, Pascal, and Carcavi which are wonderfully intelligent and readable, while also deeply kind and personal. > 1. I have been delighted to have had the thoughts conformed to those of M. Pascal, for I admire infinitely his genius and I believe him very capable of coming to the end of all that which he will undertake. The friendship that he offers me is so dear to me and so considerable that I must have no difficulty in making some use of it in the publishing of my Treatises. > Our blows always continue and I am as glad as you in the admiration that our thoughts are arranged so exactly that it seems that they have taken one same route and make one same path It makes me wonder if future generations will look back on correspondences between guys like Ken Thompson and Dennis Ritchie. https://probabilityandfinance.com/pulskamp/Pascal/Sources/pasfer.pdf https://probabilityandfinance.com/pulskamp/Pascal/Sources/pa...
- decremental 6mo ago
  [dead]
- divbzero 6mo ago
  Perhaps future generations will reference certain threads here on HN.
  - mswphd 6mo ago
    This does happen some on other websites. I've often seen people in math discuss things that Bill Thurston (a fields medalist) has posted on mathoverflow https://mathoverflow.net/users/9062/bill-thurston https://mathoverflow.net/users/9062/bill-thurston note that he has been deceased for nearly 15 years now.
    - mcontrac 6mo ago
      Math is particularly nice in that whole papers can be discussed/compressed into a single conversation, unlike, a scientific experiment which requires many figures and controls to confirm or deny one's hypothesis. It's why teatime culture is so great in academic math departments worldwide. I'd listen in at my undergrad institution and usually a single conversation between two professors at teatime could be written up into a paper if they really wanted to. During undergrad I was mentored by one of Bill's students, and he'd often comment that Bill's glib throwaways would usually be very profound if you thought through it carefully.
AdmiralAsshat 6mo ago
Gambling is also (allegedly) responsible for giving us the sandwich[0] and the modern sushi roll. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Montagu,_4th_Earl_of_Sandwich#The_sandwich https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Montagu,_4th_Earl_of_Sand... There's a coffee-table book in there somewhere.
quercusa 6mo ago
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Bernstein is an enjoyable read on this.
ivansavz 6mo ago
A nice video explainer about this dispute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YRfSe-f1FE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YRfSe-f1FE
divbzero 6mo ago
… and a Student’s quest for quality beer led to the t-test. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset

121 points by sohkamyung 6mo ago

> a French gambler and intellectual socialite enlisted the help Imagine Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat teaming together to solve your problem.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

The_Blade 6mo ago

Luca Pacioli invented (or really, put down on paper) double-entry accounting it is funny how probability has always been way behind other maths. i got to use the Birthday problem at work, once, which made the math undergrad totally worth it fortunately my Polymarket and Kalshi wagers are protected by AES et al

c7b 6mo ago
As one lecturer put it: modern probability theory derived from two foundations - measure theory and gambling. The latter explains why it has long lacked mainstream mathematical recognition :) But that's all in the past. Probability is absolutely established in math academia today, Fields medals and all. And despite its applied nature it's pervasive even in pure math.
sorokod 6mo ago
In what way was it always behind? This work of Fermat and Pascal is ballpark contemporary to the development of calculus.
- seanhunter 6mo ago
  Right, and Cauchy is the person we have to thank for Bayes’ Theorem, and of course Euler, De Moivre, Poisson and Gauss for the Gaussian integral[1]. You can’t really get figures more central to mathematics than that. [1] Athough Gauss apparently credited it to Laplace.
  - sorokod 6mo ago
    Most of the names you mention belong to the next (18th) century. Gauss worked out some sort of probability distribution too.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]

benbreen 6mo ago

Just wanted to flag that the works of Ian Hacking, especially The Emergence of Probability (1975) and The Taming of Chance (1990) are excellent on this. Dense and challenging at times but also well written and the product of a very original mind. The latter book has a Wikipedia page with some more info - was surprised to see Hacking not mentioned here since the featured article is partly based on his work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Taming_of_Chance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Taming_of_Chance

pjacotg 6mo ago
I'm busy reading a book [0] by Keith Devlin about the correspondence between Pascal and Fermat. It's called the unfinished game and has been really good so far. It goes through the letters and provides some context around them. [0] https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/4443547-the-unfinished-game https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/4443547-the-unfinishe...

joenot443 6mo ago

The article links to a series of letters between Fermat, Pascal, and Carcavi which are wonderfully intelligent and readable, while also deeply kind and personal. > 1. I have been delighted to have had the thoughts conformed to those of M. Pascal, for I admire infinitely his genius and I believe him very capable of coming to the end of all that which he will undertake. The friendship that he offers me is so dear to me and so considerable that I must have no difficulty in making some use of it in the publishing of my Treatises. > Our blows always continue and I am as glad as you in the admiration that our thoughts are arranged so exactly that it seems that they have taken one same route and make one same path It makes me wonder if future generations will look back on correspondences between guys like Ken Thompson and Dennis Ritchie. https://probabilityandfinance.com/pulskamp/Pascal/Sources/pasfer.pdf https://probabilityandfinance.com/pulskamp/Pascal/Sources/pa...

decremental 6mo ago
[dead]
divbzero 6mo ago
Perhaps future generations will reference certain threads here on HN.
- mswphd 6mo ago
  This does happen some on other websites. I've often seen people in math discuss things that Bill Thurston (a fields medalist) has posted on mathoverflow https://mathoverflow.net/users/9062/bill-thurston https://mathoverflow.net/users/9062/bill-thurston note that he has been deceased for nearly 15 years now.
  - mcontrac 6mo ago
    Math is particularly nice in that whole papers can be discussed/compressed into a single conversation, unlike, a scientific experiment which requires many figures and controls to confirm or deny one's hypothesis. It's why teatime culture is so great in academic math departments worldwide. I'd listen in at my undergrad institution and usually a single conversation between two professors at teatime could be written up into a paper if they really wanted to. During undergrad I was mentored by one of Bill's students, and he'd often comment that Bill's glib throwaways would usually be very profound if you thought through it carefully.

AdmiralAsshat 6mo ago

Gambling is also (allegedly) responsible for giving us the sandwich[0] and the modern sushi roll. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Montagu,_4th_Earl_of_Sandwich#The_sandwich https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Montagu,_4th_Earl_of_Sand... There's a coffee-table book in there somewhere.

quercusa 6mo ago

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Bernstein is an enjoyable read on this.

ivansavz 6mo ago

A nice video explainer about this dispute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YRfSe-f1FE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YRfSe-f1FE

divbzero 6mo ago

… and a Student’s quest for quality beer led to the t-test. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset