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The development and production lifecycle _has_ to be long for a country not fighting a current war. Ukrainian munitions get used up almost immediately. They do

The development and production lifecycle _has_ to be long for a country not fighting a current war. Ukrainian munitions get used up almost immediately. They don't need to stockpile, they are in a steady state wartime production. On the contrary, peace time countries have to stockpile. A manufacturing line cannot be ramped up from zero to wartime, we need low volume manufacturing to retain the expertise and the supply lines. But that, in turn, means that we have to either trash the entire manufacturing output every few months (which would be insane), or stockpile. The latter option also requires building more capable systems so that the stockpiles are still relevant in a few years.

hedora 6mo ago
Stockpiling doesn’t really do much vs. investing in manufacturing. Contrast the US in the civil war or wwii to the current situation. In both those wars, civilian factories were rapidly converted for the war and manufacturing capabilities were ramped fast. In Iran, we’ve burned through years or decades of manufacturing capacity and probably used up most of our top tier stockpile. That only exhausted/destroyed about 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles. It’s unclear what it did to their drone manufacturing capabilities. It guaranteed they’ll pursue nuclear capabilities moving forward. At the same time, US investment in manufacturing is tanking due to warmongering and isolationist economic policies. Iran stalemated us in a month or two, and all the trends I see (education, manufacturing, high tech innovation) point to US capabilities eroding rapidly in the short to medium term.
- 15155 6mo ago
  > 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles Which cruise missiles are you referring to?
- dgroshev 6mo ago
  Being able to stockpile is not the goal, it's a pre-requisite. Having a serious manufacturing capability helps to scale, but you can't convert an iphone assembly line to ballistic missile interceptors, and especially when you don't produce the interceptors at some low rate. There is a lot of technology and know-how that goes into those capabilities, and both get lost if they aren't exercised. But that means either trashing the output in a few months (emulating Ukraine), or being able to stockpile.
  - hedora 6mo ago
    Why would you waste the factory output during peacetime? It seems like pork spending to me. Put the factories to good use, and maybe have 1% of output go to prototypes; 10% to dual use. Miniaturization of weaponry (like drones) makes this even more attractive. Also, a iPhone factory (if such a thing existed) could certainly convert to drone manufacturing in short order. Aluminum and glass aren’t great materials for drones, but aluminum is useful for things like machinery that manufactures plastic.
    - dgroshev 6mo ago
      That's because the modern weapon tech tree is vast and complex. It's not factorio, there are no factories that can switch from producing DSLRs to MWIR cameras. A playdough factory can't cast solid rocket motors. A Tesla manufacturing line can't just switch to welding 10cm steel slabs for tanks. Moreover, those military-relevant processes and techniques require know-how that gets lost if the processes are not run. Small quad hype is just techbro delusion. Those quads have their place, but the vast majority of the defence toolkit needs to be much more sophisticated. For example, Ukraine is still struggling to manufacture a domestic ballistic missile four years into the war, despite having tons of funding, a ballistic program pre-war, and Western experts willing to help. If western countries stopped low-rate production that normally goes into stockpiles, the timeline to start manufacturing up would be similar.

hedora 6mo ago

Stockpiling doesn’t really do much vs. investing in manufacturing. Contrast the US in the civil war or wwii to the current situation. In both those wars, civilian factories were rapidly converted for the war and manufacturing capabilities were ramped fast. In Iran, we’ve burned through years or decades of manufacturing capacity and probably used up most of our top tier stockpile. That only exhausted/destroyed about 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles. It’s unclear what it did to their drone manufacturing capabilities. It guaranteed they’ll pursue nuclear capabilities moving forward. At the same time, US investment in manufacturing is tanking due to warmongering and isolationist economic policies. Iran stalemated us in a month or two, and all the trends I see (education, manufacturing, high tech innovation) point to US capabilities eroding rapidly in the short to medium term.

15155 6mo ago
> 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles Which cruise missiles are you referring to?
dgroshev 6mo ago
Being able to stockpile is not the goal, it's a pre-requisite. Having a serious manufacturing capability helps to scale, but you can't convert an iphone assembly line to ballistic missile interceptors, and especially when you don't produce the interceptors at some low rate. There is a lot of technology and know-how that goes into those capabilities, and both get lost if they aren't exercised. But that means either trashing the output in a few months (emulating Ukraine), or being able to stockpile.
- hedora 6mo ago
  Why would you waste the factory output during peacetime? It seems like pork spending to me. Put the factories to good use, and maybe have 1% of output go to prototypes; 10% to dual use. Miniaturization of weaponry (like drones) makes this even more attractive. Also, a iPhone factory (if such a thing existed) could certainly convert to drone manufacturing in short order. Aluminum and glass aren’t great materials for drones, but aluminum is useful for things like machinery that manufactures plastic.
  - dgroshev 6mo ago
    That's because the modern weapon tech tree is vast and complex. It's not factorio, there are no factories that can switch from producing DSLRs to MWIR cameras. A playdough factory can't cast solid rocket motors. A Tesla manufacturing line can't just switch to welding 10cm steel slabs for tanks. Moreover, those military-relevant processes and techniques require know-how that gets lost if the processes are not run. Small quad hype is just techbro delusion. Those quads have their place, but the vast majority of the defence toolkit needs to be much more sophisticated. For example, Ukraine is still struggling to manufacture a domestic ballistic missile four years into the war, despite having tons of funding, a ballistic program pre-war, and Western experts willing to help. If western countries stopped low-rate production that normally goes into stockpiles, the timeline to start manufacturing up would be similar.