4 ms·
I would dispute the depletion of expensive munitions, but I still believe that is largely irrelevant next to political exhaustion. I do not think most American
by 0cf8612b2e1e 6mo ago
I would dispute the depletion of expensive munitions, but I still believe that is largely irrelevant next to political exhaustion.
I do not think most Americans would care to defend Taiwan, even against the China boogeyman. The practical realities of losing Chinese goods would be a devastating reality few are prepared to face.
- carefree-bob 6mo agoI agree, political exhaustion is the real constraint. I personally would not be willing to do anything to defend Taiwan from China. But then again, I don't support any of the wars we fought in the middle east, either.
- marklar423 6mo agoJust want to drop this link to the excellent https://acoup.blog/2026/02/13/collections-against-the-state-a-primer-on-terrorism-insurgency-and-protest/ https://acoup.blog/2026/02/13/collections-against-the-state-... which discusses the different costs of war, including how significantly weaker powers can win by increasing political costs.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 6mo agoJP Morgan is predicting $5/gallon gas. Apparently gas prices are one of the best indicators to predict presidential support. In normal times, this seems unfair-lots of external factors can influence gas prices. Rare that you can so directly point towards administration action causing an effect. Every day this conflict continues is going to have devastating political outcomes. I largely subscribe to the belief that Kamala losing was a reflection that people were mad at inflation.
- carefree-bob 6mo agoThe problem here is that gas prices have bifurcated to the point that an "average" doesn't mean much. I'm pretty sure I know how California will vote regardless of the gas price, but gas in Texas and much of the midwest will remain cheap. This map should be eye opening. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ https://gasprices.aaa.com/
- 0cf8612b2e1e 6mo agoFor sure. I am in SoCal, and when I hear people complaining of the “$4 gas”, I can only laugh. I still believe the average represents a real increase being borne across the country, even if it is felt unevenly.
- bdangubic 6mo agoGas is Texas is not that much cheaper than national average and will hit $4 soon if this “war” continues. I have several friends in Texas who are livid about gas prices.
- gozucito 6mo agoThe reality of losing TSMC is no joke either. I remember Covid times when many G20 leaders went to Taiwan begging for some chips so that they could keep exporting cars and other things that need computer chips.
- carefree-bob 6mo agoWhat do you mean by "losing TSMC"? It's not ours. Do you know what does belong to the west? ASML. What makes TSMC actually work.
- poszlem 6mo agoASML is not "yours" too in that case as it happens to be european.
- carefree-bob 6mo agoASML's largest shareholder is Intel, and they rely on a supply chain from American, German, and other western European countries, all on the US leash. But more importantly, ASML does exactly what America tells them to do. And Europe for the most part does as well. Sorry, I wish Europe had the fortitude to not be subordinated to the US, but that's how it is.
- vanviegen 6mo agoIntel does not hold a significant share in ASML anymore. I agree that the US has other 'western' countries 'on a leash'. That used to be an arrangement that was mutually beneficial...
- tick_tock_tick 6mo agoI mean it's literally beholden to the USA congress and it's most meaningful parts are made in the USA. There is a reason why they fall in line with every USA export control and restriction. If ASML is Europe's then I'd say all of Europe is the USA's.
- tick_tock_tick 6mo agoI think people are pointing out how little it actually takes to wage this war against Iran and that there are basically zero costs to the USA to do so. A classic "political exhaustion" requires some degree of meaningful hardship on the USA and a slight gas price increase just isn't enough.
- hedora 6mo agoWait until the fertilizer shortage hits food prices, and the helium shortage actually shuts down semiconductor manufacturing. Those things should be hitting just before election season.