7 ms·

> If China produces 100 times or 1000 times their current numbers (and they can), marginal differences in capability are not going to matter. If china somehow

> If China produces 100 times or 1000 times their current numbers (and they can), marginal differences in capability are not going to matter. If china somehow learnes magic and produced 10,000 f16 equivalents and got into a major non-nuclear shooting war with the united states... they'd lose 10,000 planes. At some point there is such a qualitative difference that numbers don't really matter.

fooker 6mo ago
You are absolutely right ;) If the US keeps maintaining a several decade technology lead forever, that is.. That has never really happened in history, so good luck I guess.
angry_octet 6mo ago
This is delusional. The PLAAF is a capable force and innovates more quickly than the USAF. Chinese A2A weapons are very good kinetically, and while EW and stealth would have an advantage, engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly. We could expect significant attrition in EW and stealth advantage over the first few weeks as their RADARs and seekers adapt.
- wredcoll 6mo ago
  > engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly That's not how 6th gen fighter combats work. You get hit by missiles and explode without ever even detecting the opponent. Does china have better stuff than f16s? Sure (and modern f16s are not the same as 1970s f16s which makes my point harder to understand in the first place anyways) but at some point, with some military technologies, you can't beat them with quantity.
  - maxerickson 6mo ago
    It depends a little bit on how many bang bangs the boom boom has.
    - wredcoll 6mo ago
      You fire all your missiles then.. you turn around and leave. The enemy isn't in range to engage you, you're flying away at least the same speed they're chasing, what are they going to do?
      - maxerickson 6mo ago
        The enemy isn't in range to engage you That's convenient. Hopefully they don't use their massive numerical advantage in some sort of scheme to make it not true.
        wredcoll 6mo ago
        What are they going to do, fly over and bomb washington??
  - angry_octet 6mo ago
    That's how your imagination of 5th fighters work (because there are no 6th gen fighters in service), as if they are somehow invisible. This is a misunderstanding of RADAR. Lower frequency RADAR will pick up F-35s, but not with enough precision to generate a target track. Pilots spend a lot of thought on the problem of signature management. A Chinese Wedgetail would be extremely dangerous, as it could provide a very good detection, and with a close enough X-band RADAR you will get a target, and then it is up to kinetic escape/EW/decoys. That is a bad situation to be in during a large force engagement. The PLAAF is of course working on longer range and faster AEW&C and jam resistant data link and expendable sensors. It is just a matter of time.
    - wredcoll 6mo ago
      I'm not trying to say that f35s are immune to modern chinese technology, I'm trying to say they're immune to previous generation stuff. They don't need to be literally invisible, you can know where they are all you want if you can't actually hit them with a missile. There's a lot of things that complicate actual fights, people get lucky, people get unlucky, you do clever things like predict incoming sortie directions and saturate that area, but while the f35 is not produced in the same numbers as say, the p51, it's not "the last starfighter" either, the opponent has to get lucky a whole bunch of times before their ability to resist has been removed.
      - fooker 6mo ago
        > I'm trying to say they're immune to previous generation stuff S400 works just fine for detecting F-35s.
        ceejayoz 6mo ago
        For certain definitions of "works". They don't seem to have fared all that well against US/Israeli F-35s in Iran, and seem to struggle in Ukraine against far less sophisticated opponents.
        6mo ago
greedo 6mo ago
You are aware that China is producing two fifth gen stealth fighters, and is flight testing two sixth gen platforms? And that Chinese AAMs are world class? Read up on how Pakistan crushed the Indian Air Force recently flying fourth gen Chinese fighters using their current AAMs.
- wredcoll 6mo ago
  This is why I specifically didn't say "if china made 10,000 of their current 6th gen air superiority fighter", I said f16s.
  - greedo 6mo ago
    The idea that China would lose 10k fighters when we barely have enough AAMs and aircraft in comparison is silly. The days of F-22s clubbing baby seals is long past.
- throwklr 6mo ago
  There is no evidence to show that Pakistan crushed the Indian Air force infact it's the other way around. A lot of Chinese equipment was blown out by Indian Brahmos.
  - greedo 6mo ago
    Brahmos isn't an A2A missile...

fooker 6mo ago

You are absolutely right ;) If the US keeps maintaining a several decade technology lead forever, that is.. That has never really happened in history, so good luck I guess.

angry_octet 6mo ago

This is delusional. The PLAAF is a capable force and innovates more quickly than the USAF. Chinese A2A weapons are very good kinetically, and while EW and stealth would have an advantage, engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly. We could expect significant attrition in EW and stealth advantage over the first few weeks as their RADARs and seekers adapt.

wredcoll 6mo ago
> engagement geometry means an 4:1 fight is always going to be costly That's not how 6th gen fighter combats work. You get hit by missiles and explode without ever even detecting the opponent. Does china have better stuff than f16s? Sure (and modern f16s are not the same as 1970s f16s which makes my point harder to understand in the first place anyways) but at some point, with some military technologies, you can't beat them with quantity.
- maxerickson 6mo ago
  It depends a little bit on how many bang bangs the boom boom has.
  - wredcoll 6mo ago
    You fire all your missiles then.. you turn around and leave. The enemy isn't in range to engage you, you're flying away at least the same speed they're chasing, what are they going to do?
    - maxerickson 6mo ago
      The enemy isn't in range to engage you That's convenient. Hopefully they don't use their massive numerical advantage in some sort of scheme to make it not true.
      - wredcoll 6mo ago
        What are they going to do, fly over and bomb washington??
- angry_octet 6mo ago
  That's how your imagination of 5th fighters work (because there are no 6th gen fighters in service), as if they are somehow invisible. This is a misunderstanding of RADAR. Lower frequency RADAR will pick up F-35s, but not with enough precision to generate a target track. Pilots spend a lot of thought on the problem of signature management. A Chinese Wedgetail would be extremely dangerous, as it could provide a very good detection, and with a close enough X-band RADAR you will get a target, and then it is up to kinetic escape/EW/decoys. That is a bad situation to be in during a large force engagement. The PLAAF is of course working on longer range and faster AEW&C and jam resistant data link and expendable sensors. It is just a matter of time.
  - wredcoll 6mo ago
    I'm not trying to say that f35s are immune to modern chinese technology, I'm trying to say they're immune to previous generation stuff. They don't need to be literally invisible, you can know where they are all you want if you can't actually hit them with a missile. There's a lot of things that complicate actual fights, people get lucky, people get unlucky, you do clever things like predict incoming sortie directions and saturate that area, but while the f35 is not produced in the same numbers as say, the p51, it's not "the last starfighter" either, the opponent has to get lucky a whole bunch of times before their ability to resist has been removed.
    - fooker 6mo ago
      > I'm trying to say they're immune to previous generation stuff S400 works just fine for detecting F-35s.
      - ceejayoz 6mo ago
        For certain definitions of "works". They don't seem to have fared all that well against US/Israeli F-35s in Iran, and seem to struggle in Ukraine against far less sophisticated opponents.
        6mo ago

greedo 6mo ago

You are aware that China is producing two fifth gen stealth fighters, and is flight testing two sixth gen platforms? And that Chinese AAMs are world class? Read up on how Pakistan crushed the Indian Air Force recently flying fourth gen Chinese fighters using their current AAMs.

wredcoll 6mo ago
This is why I specifically didn't say "if china made 10,000 of their current 6th gen air superiority fighter", I said f16s.
- greedo 6mo ago
  The idea that China would lose 10k fighters when we barely have enough AAMs and aircraft in comparison is silly. The days of F-22s clubbing baby seals is long past.
throwklr 6mo ago
There is no evidence to show that Pakistan crushed the Indian Air force infact it's the other way around. A lot of Chinese equipment was blown out by Indian Brahmos.
- greedo 6mo ago
  Brahmos isn't an A2A missile...