Not true at all. A great example was this market from the most recent primary election. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnout-in-the-t

Not true at all. A great example was this market from the most recent primary election. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnout-in-the-texas-senate-democratic-primary/kxtxsenatedemturnout-26mar03 https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnou... Based on just simple math there was basically no chance of turnout being over 2.5m and yet the market for multiple days had the higher buckets at exorbitant prices.