4 ms·
If this were the case, deeper and more informed pockets than yours would take the opposing position until there’s no more alpha to be had.
by stouset 6mo ago
If this were the case, deeper and more informed pockets than yours would take the opposing position until there’s no more alpha to be had.
- nojito 6mo agoNot true at all. A great example was this market from the most recent primary election. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnout-in-the-texas-senate-democratic-primary/kxtxsenatedemturnout-26mar03 https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnou... Based on just simple math there was basically no chance of turnout being over 2.5m and yet the market for multiple days had the higher buckets at exorbitant prices.