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>Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? Because they are grossly mis-priced for anyone mildly informed.

• direwolf20 6mo ago
  Did you get rich off these markets? If not, how can you say it's true?
• stouset 6mo ago
  If this were the case, deeper and more informed pockets than yours would take the opposing position until there’s no more alpha to be had.
  • nojito 6mo ago
    Not true at all. A great example was this market from the most recent primary election. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnout-in-the-texas-senate-democratic-primary/kxtxsenatedemturnout-26mar03 https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnou... Based on just simple math there was basically no chance of turnout being over 2.5m and yet the market for multiple days had the higher buckets at exorbitant prices.
    • wallst07 6mo ago
      The turnaround was 2.3m, I don't get your point. Texas doesn't require party affiliation.
      • nojito 6mo ago
        Correct and the higher brackets above 2.5m were at 50-70 cents each.