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This, the push towards per-token API charging, and the rest are just a sign of things to come when they finally establish a moat and full monoply/duopoly, which

by coldtea 7mo ago

This, the push towards per-token API charging, and the rest are just a sign of things to come when they finally establish a moat and full monoply/duopoly, which is also what all the specialized tools like Designer and integrations are about. It's going to be a very expensive game, and the masses will be left with subpar local versions. It would be like if we reversed the democratization of compilers and coding tooling, done in the 90s and 00s, and the polished more capable tools are again all proprietary.

throwaway041207 7mo ago
Yep, between this and the pricing for the code review tool that was released a couple weeks ago (15-25 a review), and the usage pricing and very expensive cost of Claude Design, I do wonder if Anthropic is making a conscious, incremental effort to raise the baseline for AI engineering tasks, especially for enterprise customers. You could call it a rug pull, but they may just be doing the math and realize this is where pricing needs to shift to before going public.
- zozbot234 7mo ago
  There's been speculation that the code review might actually be Mythos. It would seem to explain the cost.
quux 7mo ago
If only there were an Open AI company who's mandate, built into the structure of the company, were to make frontier models available to everyone for the good of humanity. Oh well
- slowmovintarget 7mo ago
  Things used to be better... really. OpenAI was built as you say. Google had a corporate motto of "Don't be evil" which they removed so they could, um, do evil stuff without cognitive dissonance, I guess. This is the other kind of enshitification where the businesses turn into power accumulators.
danny_codes 7mo ago
I doubt that’s the case. My guess is we’ll hit asymptomatic returns from transformers, but price-to-train will fall at moore’s law. So over time older models will be less valuable, but new models will only be slightly better. Frontier players, therefore, are in a losing business. They need to charge high margins to recoup their high training costs. But latecomers can simply train for a fraction of the cost. Since performance is asymptomatic, eventually the first-mover advantage is entirely negligible and LLMs become simple commodity. The only moat I can see is data, but distillation proves that this is easy to subvert. There will probably be a window though where insiders get very wealthy by offloading onto retail investors, who will be left with the bag.
- coldtea 7mo ago
  >I doubt that’s the case. My guess is we’ll hit asymptomatic returns from transformers, but price-to-train will fall at moore’s law. There hasn't been a real Moore's law for a good while even before LLMs. And memory isn't getting less expensive either...

by coldtea 7mo ago

throwaway041207 7mo ago

Yep, between this and the pricing for the code review tool that was released a couple weeks ago (15-25 a review), and the usage pricing and very expensive cost of Claude Design, I do wonder if Anthropic is making a conscious, incremental effort to raise the baseline for AI engineering tasks, especially for enterprise customers. You could call it a rug pull, but they may just be doing the math and realize this is where pricing needs to shift to before going public.

zozbot234 7mo ago
There's been speculation that the code review might actually be Mythos. It would seem to explain the cost.

quux 7mo ago

If only there were an Open AI company who's mandate, built into the structure of the company, were to make frontier models available to everyone for the good of humanity. Oh well

slowmovintarget 7mo ago
Things used to be better... really. OpenAI was built as you say. Google had a corporate motto of "Don't be evil" which they removed so they could, um, do evil stuff without cognitive dissonance, I guess. This is the other kind of enshitification where the businesses turn into power accumulators.

danny_codes 7mo ago

I doubt that’s the case. My guess is we’ll hit asymptomatic returns from transformers, but price-to-train will fall at moore’s law. So over time older models will be less valuable, but new models will only be slightly better. Frontier players, therefore, are in a losing business. They need to charge high margins to recoup their high training costs. But latecomers can simply train for a fraction of the cost. Since performance is asymptomatic, eventually the first-mover advantage is entirely negligible and LLMs become simple commodity. The only moat I can see is data, but distillation proves that this is easy to subvert. There will probably be a window though where insiders get very wealthy by offloading onto retail investors, who will be left with the bag.

coldtea 7mo ago
>I doubt that’s the case. My guess is we’ll hit asymptomatic returns from transformers, but price-to-train will fall at moore’s law. There hasn't been a real Moore's law for a good while even before LLMs. And memory isn't getting less expensive either...