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Traders place $760M bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement

73 points by Jimmc414 6mo ago

bix6 6mo ago
Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.
- Grosvenor 6mo ago
  Yes, if the SEC decides to they can trace it back to specific orders. Will the SEC decide to?
  - an0malous 6mo ago
    The orders are coming from… inside the house??
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - walletdrainer 6mo ago
    CFTC, SEC does not regulate commodities but securities.
    - yieldcrv 6mo ago
      SEC could find out because of the ETFs that trade the same underlying assets
- Jimmc414 6mo ago
  Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
- jackyinger 6mo ago
  I would love it if real people did that, and then acted on what they found with moral integrity.
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
  > Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor. As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-made-before-trump-iran-pivots-source-says-2026-04-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious... [2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data
- watwut 6mo ago
  Why AI? You want tracker that dont hallucinate. But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.
- ulfw 6mo ago
  Would love human with brain to do that.
- MiguelX413 6mo ago
  Why would AI be part of that process?
refurb 6mo ago
If this trade is based on inside information, it would be on the Iranian side since it's timed on the IRGC's X post. That seems like a smart move by Iran. Get rich off your own announcements.
- anigbrowl 6mo ago
  That was my first thought, but it's also possible that diplomatic partners like Pakistan (and through them, the US) get notification of impending announcements. idk if Iranian government insiders/diplomats are legally able to trade futures due to sanctions.
chopete3 6mo ago
>> Investors placed a bet Aren't these more of gamblers?. There is no real asset they are investing in.
- alex43578 6mo ago
  Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
  - throwup238 6mo ago
    When we had that oil glut years ago and traders couldn’t unload their futures, they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it, causing a mad scramble to figure out what to do with it when storage started running out.
    - embedding-shape 6mo ago
      > they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it Sometimes, even average(ly stupid) people end up discovering this too: r/wallstreetbets - 7d ago - Anyone know how I can cancel this? I dont want it - https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1siq4m2/anyone_know_how_i_can_cancel_this_i_dont_want_it/ https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1siq4m2/any...
      - throwup238 6mo ago
        I think it’s fake. Brokers don’t allow retail investors to keep those contracts anymore unless they come with a warrant (i.e. precious metals stored in some COMEX vault). They will auto-liquidate positions well before first notice day unless you’ve already got documentation for a slot at Cushing.
runeks 6mo ago
This article is subscription-only for me. Anyone have a link?
metalglot 6mo ago
Bets placed on misinformation spread on a friday that's outdated by saturday morning. Turning into a weekend tradition at this point..

73 points by Jimmc414 6mo ago

bix6 6mo ago

Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.

Grosvenor 6mo ago
Yes, if the SEC decides to they can trace it back to specific orders. Will the SEC decide to?
- an0malous 6mo ago
  The orders are coming from… inside the house??
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- walletdrainer 6mo ago
  CFTC, SEC does not regulate commodities but securities.
  - yieldcrv 6mo ago
    SEC could find out because of the ETFs that trade the same underlying assets
Jimmc414 6mo ago
Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
jackyinger 6mo ago
I would love it if real people did that, and then acted on what they found with moral integrity.
JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor. As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-made-before-trump-iran-pivots-source-says-2026-04-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious... [2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data
watwut 6mo ago
Why AI? You want tracker that dont hallucinate. But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.
ulfw 6mo ago
Would love human with brain to do that.
MiguelX413 6mo ago
Why would AI be part of that process?

refurb 6mo ago

If this trade is based on inside information, it would be on the Iranian side since it's timed on the IRGC's X post. That seems like a smart move by Iran. Get rich off your own announcements.

anigbrowl 6mo ago
That was my first thought, but it's also possible that diplomatic partners like Pakistan (and through them, the US) get notification of impending announcements. idk if Iranian government insiders/diplomats are legally able to trade futures due to sanctions.

chopete3 6mo ago

>> Investors placed a bet Aren't these more of gamblers?. There is no real asset they are investing in.

alex43578 6mo ago
Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
- throwup238 6mo ago
  When we had that oil glut years ago and traders couldn’t unload their futures, they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it, causing a mad scramble to figure out what to do with it when storage started running out.
  - embedding-shape 6mo ago
    > they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it Sometimes, even average(ly stupid) people end up discovering this too: r/wallstreetbets - 7d ago - Anyone know how I can cancel this? I dont want it - https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1siq4m2/anyone_know_how_i_can_cancel_this_i_dont_want_it/ https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1siq4m2/any...
    - throwup238 6mo ago
      I think it’s fake. Brokers don’t allow retail investors to keep those contracts anymore unless they come with a warrant (i.e. precious metals stored in some COMEX vault). They will auto-liquidate positions well before first notice day unless you’ve already got documentation for a slot at Cushing.

runeks 6mo ago

This article is subscription-only for me. Anyone have a link?

metalglot 6mo ago

Bets placed on misinformation spread on a friday that's outdated by saturday morning. Turning into a weekend tradition at this point..