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Even by pessimistic progress projections AI will be better than most at coding before this is a long term issue. And the output multiplier I'm seeing I suspect

Even by pessimistic progress projections AI will be better than most at coding before this is a long term issue. And the output multiplier I'm seeing I suspect the number of SWEs needed to achieve the same task is going to start shrinking fast. I don't think SWE is a promising career to get started in today.

lrvick 6mo ago
But you have to be good at SWE to be good at security engineering and sysadmin, and the demand there is skyrocketing. We have a completely broken internet with almost nothing using memory encryption, deterministic builds, full source bootstrapping, secure enclaves, end to end encryption, remote attestation, hardware security auth, or proper code review. Decades of human cognitive work to be done here even with LLM help because the LLMs were trained to keep doing things the old way unless we direct them to do otherwise from our own base of experience on cutting edge security research no models are trained on sufficiently.
mwwaters 6mo ago
There’s certainly a lot of uncertainty. But pro-AI posts never seem to pin themselves down on whether code checked in will be read and understood by a human. Perhaps a lot of engineers work in “vibe-codeable” domains, but a huge amount of domains deal with money, health, financial reporting, etc. Then there are domains those domains use as infrastructure (OS, cloud, databases, networking, etc.) Even where it is non-critical, such as a social media site, whether that site runs and serves ads (and bills for them correctly) is critical for that company.
8note 6mo ago
im not convinced that it will. you dont notice it when you are only looking at your own harness results, but the llm bakes so very much of your own skills and opinions into what it does. LLMs still regurgitate a ton.
- rafaelmn 6mo ago
  If you're enrolling in uni today you're looking at 6-10 years till your career is in a good place. I'm willing to bet there will 1/10 of junior positions available in 5 years. And insufficient talent because of retirement becomes an issue in like 30 years even with current developer demand, and I expect that demand to go down significantly over time, even with current level of capabilities.
jazz9k 6mo ago
Perhaps at some point, but tokens are expensive and the major providers are burning through cash. I suppose it's like bandwidth cost in the 90s. At some point, it becomes a commodity.
weakfish 6mo ago
Something I don’t see “SWE-is-Doomed” comments address is this - SWE, I think we can all agree, is one of the more complex white collar jobs. If it gets automated, then likely most other white collar jobs have been too. At that point, don’t we have bigger problems?
- lrvick 6mo ago
  Indeed. The bottom 90% of white collar work as it exists today is probably gone over the next decade.
  - weakfish 6mo ago
    Oh. Well I meant this as a counter point to the idea that AI can replace us.

lrvick 6mo ago

But you have to be good at SWE to be good at security engineering and sysadmin, and the demand there is skyrocketing. We have a completely broken internet with almost nothing using memory encryption, deterministic builds, full source bootstrapping, secure enclaves, end to end encryption, remote attestation, hardware security auth, or proper code review. Decades of human cognitive work to be done here even with LLM help because the LLMs were trained to keep doing things the old way unless we direct them to do otherwise from our own base of experience on cutting edge security research no models are trained on sufficiently.

mwwaters 6mo ago

There’s certainly a lot of uncertainty. But pro-AI posts never seem to pin themselves down on whether code checked in will be read and understood by a human. Perhaps a lot of engineers work in “vibe-codeable” domains, but a huge amount of domains deal with money, health, financial reporting, etc. Then there are domains those domains use as infrastructure (OS, cloud, databases, networking, etc.) Even where it is non-critical, such as a social media site, whether that site runs and serves ads (and bills for them correctly) is critical for that company.

8note 6mo ago

im not convinced that it will. you dont notice it when you are only looking at your own harness results, but the llm bakes so very much of your own skills and opinions into what it does. LLMs still regurgitate a ton.

rafaelmn 6mo ago
If you're enrolling in uni today you're looking at 6-10 years till your career is in a good place. I'm willing to bet there will 1/10 of junior positions available in 5 years. And insufficient talent because of retirement becomes an issue in like 30 years even with current developer demand, and I expect that demand to go down significantly over time, even with current level of capabilities.

jazz9k 6mo ago

Perhaps at some point, but tokens are expensive and the major providers are burning through cash. I suppose it's like bandwidth cost in the 90s. At some point, it becomes a commodity.

weakfish 6mo ago

Something I don’t see “SWE-is-Doomed” comments address is this - SWE, I think we can all agree, is one of the more complex white collar jobs. If it gets automated, then likely most other white collar jobs have been too. At that point, don’t we have bigger problems?

lrvick 6mo ago
Indeed. The bottom 90% of white collar work as it exists today is probably gone over the next decade.
- weakfish 6mo ago
  Oh. Well I meant this as a counter point to the idea that AI can replace us.