4 ms·

Assuming that this is in any shape or form correct, why hasn't rationing started? Six weeks at normal flight capacity is an insane amount of fuel, rationing it

Assuming that this is in any shape or form correct, why hasn't rationing started? Six weeks at normal flight capacity is an insane amount of fuel, rationing it out for transport of critical goods and travel, will stretch it for years. If the plan is to just burn through the existing stock I'd argue that someone is acting incredibly irresponsibly.

Schiendelman 6mo ago
From what perspective? The individual flight operators maximize their earnings by running as many flights as they can, and charging as much as they can. Individuals who need transportation also maximize their utility from the same thing. Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-february-gdp-report-economy-iran-war-stock-market-reeves-ftse-sterling-live-updates https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb... Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.
- mrweasel 6mo ago
  The cancellations are because of rising prices, that doesn't mean they can get fuel, just that the current price makes the destination unprofitable. (Technically this should free up some fuel). But I was thinking from a political perspective, allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed, like vacation hotspots, seems ill advised, if you truly expect to run out off fuel. The reality is that Europe won't run out of jet fuel, it's airlines can pay for the fuel it needs, for the destinations it requires, but prices will go up. Poorer countries will run out, because the fuel is worth more in Europe and will be redirected.
  - carlosjobim 6mo ago
    [flagged]
    - kyleee 6mo ago
      And Taylor swift
  - bossyTeacher 6mo ago
    > allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed What exactly is a "needed" destination and who decides that? Who is going to shoulder the financial loss for banning airlines from flying to popular spots? If you ban airlines, why not other industries too? Why not private individuals too? See? It's not that easy
  - expedition32 6mo ago
    Yep I myself changed my holiday plans from Tokyo to a nice Greek villa. Because I know that ticket prices for Asian flights will skyrocket. That's how scarcity is dealt with: raising prices. Long term the government will have to look into reshoring some refineries I suppose.
davedx 6mo ago
KLM cancelled 80 flights today
- gnabgib 6mo ago
  160 flights (31 points, 12 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872
- LeChuck 6mo ago
  Due to cost, not shortage.
  - ceejayoz 6mo ago
    Shortages tend to cause cost increases.
wongarsu 6mo ago
It's not like Europe is actually running out of fuel. 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait of Hormuz, but closer to 10% of Europe's oil imports. They get a lot of their oil from Norway, the US, Libya, Kazakhstan, etc. Losing that much oil hurts. But it's entirely in the realm of what market forces can deal with. As storages empty prices rise, which lowers demand. There's already reports of multiple airlines suspending some of their flights because they aren't economically viable right now
- larkost 6mo ago
  I think you are mistaking "oil" (crude oil) as a straight stand-in for jet fuel. The former is a raw material (one that has a lot of "flavors"), whereas the latter is one possible product from refinement of that raw material. It should be noted that not all refineries are setup to produce jet fuel, and not all crude oil is viable for making jet fuel. I don't know the details about Europe's mix on refineries an d viable crude oil supplies. As it happens, about 75% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Middle East (I don't immediately have numbers for what of that goes through the Persion Gulf). That percentage puts it outside of the range you can correct with market changes (other than most flights don't fly... that is pretty drastic).
  - larkost 6mo ago
    Sorry... should have included the reference: European aviation is particularly exposed to the shortage of jet fuel, relying heavily on imports from the Middle East. Around 75 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially problematic for its aviation industry. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-why-iran-war-could-ground-flights-in-europe https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-w...
- bostik 6mo ago
  As pointed out in the oil crisis article[0], the reduction that led to the 1970's oil shock was about 5%. Effectively eliminating 15% to 20% of global production capacity is going to be a pretty damn big deal. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
hollywood_court 6mo ago
Perhaps rationing has already started? My coworker and his family received notice today that their flight to France was cancel. Part of the message said: "The disruption is caused by extraordinary surge in oil prices followed by unpredictable fuel supply shortage constraints across the aviation industry outside our control. As a result, we are unable to operate this route in a responsible and sustainable manner."
ashleyn 6mo ago
Is rationing really necessary when the price raises enough that people aren't flying anywhere anyway?
- usrusr 6mo ago
  Only when the prices raise to the point that low demand leads to actual flight cancellations. The demand for fuel is much less flexible than the demand for tickets.
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
marginalia_nu 6mo ago
Rationing in Europe is hard because thanks to free travel it has to be done in all of Europe all at once otherwise people are just gonna go and shop where it's more available, causing problems for neighboring countries, and doing anything at a EU level is incredibly slow and full of bureaucratic rigmarole. The EU is by its construction a trade harmonization organization, it's not built for acting quickly and dealing with crises.
- elmo2you 6mo ago
  I think that is a rather valid point. I've also heard it used as an argument in a podcast with "armchair generals" (I believe it included an actual general, nvm) about the possible planning/intent behind the whole situation. That is, assuming it wasn't all just incompetence and/or secret self-enrichment backdoor deals between key players operating from the shadow. From what I remember (vaguely), it was argued that serious internal problems within the EU could be part of an agenda. I can't recall how that then would be exploited, beyond just causing chaos in Europe for the sake of it. Still, I could imagine that to be a goal in itself for some of the involved.
jandrewrogers 6mo ago
The distribution of jet fuel is not uniform. Some regions are unlikely to experience shortages while others are already rationing. Global supply chains aren't perfectly elastic, shortages are a local phenomenon. Rationing in the US, for example, wouldn't make sense because physical shortages are unlikely to exist there; the US exports jet fuel and has a completely domestic supply chain. Market prices will increase but the product will physically be there. An airline can only schedule flights if fuel is guaranteed to be available at both ends. If they fly their plane to a part of the world experiencing severe shortages, the plane may become stranded there because there isn't fuel to fly it back.
lazide 6mo ago
More than 6 weeks of refined product also tends to be hard to maintain - moisture, bacterial/fungal growths (really - especially in kerosene derived products), oxidation/gumming (usually more of a problem in lighter fractions like gasoline). Even 6 month type stockpiles usually take special regular maintenance procedures.
_moof 6mo ago
Because rationing isn't step one. Putting out a warning that rationing will be necessary if things don't change is step one. Rationing causes serious problems. A warning in advance gives people and powers time to turn things around before rationing becomes necessary.

Schiendelman 6mo ago

From what perspective? The individual flight operators maximize their earnings by running as many flights as they can, and charging as much as they can. Individuals who need transportation also maximize their utility from the same thing. Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-february-gdp-report-economy-iran-war-stock-market-reeves-ftse-sterling-live-updates https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb... Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.

mrweasel 6mo ago
The cancellations are because of rising prices, that doesn't mean they can get fuel, just that the current price makes the destination unprofitable. (Technically this should free up some fuel). But I was thinking from a political perspective, allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed, like vacation hotspots, seems ill advised, if you truly expect to run out off fuel. The reality is that Europe won't run out of jet fuel, it's airlines can pay for the fuel it needs, for the destinations it requires, but prices will go up. Poorer countries will run out, because the fuel is worth more in Europe and will be redirected.
- carlosjobim 6mo ago
  [flagged]
  - kyleee 6mo ago
    And Taylor swift
- bossyTeacher 6mo ago
  > allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed What exactly is a "needed" destination and who decides that? Who is going to shoulder the financial loss for banning airlines from flying to popular spots? If you ban airlines, why not other industries too? Why not private individuals too? See? It's not that easy
- expedition32 6mo ago
  Yep I myself changed my holiday plans from Tokyo to a nice Greek villa. Because I know that ticket prices for Asian flights will skyrocket. That's how scarcity is dealt with: raising prices. Long term the government will have to look into reshoring some refineries I suppose.

davedx 6mo ago

KLM cancelled 80 flights today

gnabgib 6mo ago
160 flights (31 points, 12 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872
LeChuck 6mo ago
Due to cost, not shortage.
- ceejayoz 6mo ago
  Shortages tend to cause cost increases.

wongarsu 6mo ago

It's not like Europe is actually running out of fuel. 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait of Hormuz, but closer to 10% of Europe's oil imports. They get a lot of their oil from Norway, the US, Libya, Kazakhstan, etc. Losing that much oil hurts. But it's entirely in the realm of what market forces can deal with. As storages empty prices rise, which lowers demand. There's already reports of multiple airlines suspending some of their flights because they aren't economically viable right now

larkost 6mo ago
I think you are mistaking "oil" (crude oil) as a straight stand-in for jet fuel. The former is a raw material (one that has a lot of "flavors"), whereas the latter is one possible product from refinement of that raw material. It should be noted that not all refineries are setup to produce jet fuel, and not all crude oil is viable for making jet fuel. I don't know the details about Europe's mix on refineries an d viable crude oil supplies. As it happens, about 75% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Middle East (I don't immediately have numbers for what of that goes through the Persion Gulf). That percentage puts it outside of the range you can correct with market changes (other than most flights don't fly... that is pretty drastic).
- larkost 6mo ago
  Sorry... should have included the reference: European aviation is particularly exposed to the shortage of jet fuel, relying heavily on imports from the Middle East. Around 75 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially problematic for its aviation industry. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-why-iran-war-could-ground-flights-in-europe https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-w...
bostik 6mo ago
As pointed out in the oil crisis article[0], the reduction that led to the 1970's oil shock was about 5%. Effectively eliminating 15% to 20% of global production capacity is going to be a pretty damn big deal. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

hollywood_court 6mo ago

Perhaps rationing has already started? My coworker and his family received notice today that their flight to France was cancel. Part of the message said: "The disruption is caused by extraordinary surge in oil prices followed by unpredictable fuel supply shortage constraints across the aviation industry outside our control. As a result, we are unable to operate this route in a responsible and sustainable manner."

ashleyn 6mo ago

Is rationing really necessary when the price raises enough that people aren't flying anywhere anyway?

usrusr 6mo ago
Only when the prices raise to the point that low demand leads to actual flight cancellations. The demand for fuel is much less flexible than the demand for tickets.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

marginalia_nu 6mo ago

Rationing in Europe is hard because thanks to free travel it has to be done in all of Europe all at once otherwise people are just gonna go and shop where it's more available, causing problems for neighboring countries, and doing anything at a EU level is incredibly slow and full of bureaucratic rigmarole. The EU is by its construction a trade harmonization organization, it's not built for acting quickly and dealing with crises.

elmo2you 6mo ago
I think that is a rather valid point. I've also heard it used as an argument in a podcast with "armchair generals" (I believe it included an actual general, nvm) about the possible planning/intent behind the whole situation. That is, assuming it wasn't all just incompetence and/or secret self-enrichment backdoor deals between key players operating from the shadow. From what I remember (vaguely), it was argued that serious internal problems within the EU could be part of an agenda. I can't recall how that then would be exploited, beyond just causing chaos in Europe for the sake of it. Still, I could imagine that to be a goal in itself for some of the involved.

jandrewrogers 6mo ago

The distribution of jet fuel is not uniform. Some regions are unlikely to experience shortages while others are already rationing. Global supply chains aren't perfectly elastic, shortages are a local phenomenon. Rationing in the US, for example, wouldn't make sense because physical shortages are unlikely to exist there; the US exports jet fuel and has a completely domestic supply chain. Market prices will increase but the product will physically be there. An airline can only schedule flights if fuel is guaranteed to be available at both ends. If they fly their plane to a part of the world experiencing severe shortages, the plane may become stranded there because there isn't fuel to fly it back.

lazide 6mo ago

More than 6 weeks of refined product also tends to be hard to maintain - moisture, bacterial/fungal growths (really - especially in kerosene derived products), oxidation/gumming (usually more of a problem in lighter fractions like gasoline). Even 6 month type stockpiles usually take special regular maintenance procedures.

_moof 6mo ago

Because rationing isn't step one. Putting out a warning that rationing will be necessary if things don't change is step one. Rationing causes serious problems. A warning in advance gives people and powers time to turn things around before rationing becomes necessary.