3 ms·

Convictions/punishment is also meant to be a deterrent. That one being: don't rob a house in a state with a castle doctrine where the owner is allowed to fucki

by nomel 6mo ago

Convictions/punishment is also meant to be a deterrent. That one being: don't rob a house in a state with a castle doctrine where the owner is allowed to fucking kill you. If you first hand help someone get killed, you're at fault. Sounds reasonable. But, I also wish we had far far more deterrents, and far more deaths, when it comes to robbers.

jmyeet 6mo ago
The uS has 4% of the world's population but 25% of the world's prison population. We have a higher rate of incarceration than, say, Russia or Iran [1]. If deterrants worked, why do these incidents keep happening? Why isn't this the safest country on Earth? Poverty costs all of us but rather than lifting people out of poverty, we'd rather spend way more on the prison-industrial complex, slavery 2.0 (ie convict leasing) and law enforcement. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera...
- nomel 6mo ago
  You're putting too much meaning into that data. Look at the low numbers in Africa. Is it because they elevate their criminals out of poverty? Maybe their police have good relationships with the community? Maybe they're good at re-habilitating convicted criminals in prison? Or maybe it's counseling to heal generational trauma? Nope. Strong deterrent of immediate mob justice: https://www.dw.com/en/mob-justice-in-africa-why-people-take-the-law-into-their-own-hands/a-19238120 https://www.dw.com/en/mob-justice-in-africa-why-people-take-... Obviously, stoning all the criminals isn't the solution, but having society rigidly define acceptable bounds of behavior that get you removed from that society if crossed (temporarily or permanently), isn't unreasonable. To understand that high number in the US, I think you would have to look at who is in prison, and what they did, to understand. Good luck. They collect the data in a way so you can't do a multivariate analysis, because that would be unethical!
  - dullcrisp 6mo ago
    That’s a fair point about Africa, but is Europe also contributing another 25%? Or is that also a lawless place?
    - nomel 6mo ago
      I don't know, we would have to look at the data. Again, due to ethical concerns, they don't record or report the data in a way where more meaningful conclusions can be made. I think many many things contribute to the difference in imprisonment. But, federal imprisonment is 42% drug charges [1]. Just looking at that, US has a cartel run country, with a near 20% GDP based on drug trafficking [2], at its poorly controlled border, with a whole continent below that containing exactly zero first world countries, some having > 40% GDP from drug trafficking! I've walked across the Mexican border. I've seen caravans of cars driving across. It's near fiction. Now, try to smuggle some drugs into an inner European country! Or, alternatively, just hop over to Amsterdam to avoid your countries laws. And, we also have the benefit of corporations fueling drug epidemics [3]. Is that imprisonment a deterrent? I didn't look up numbers, but have some useless anecdotal evidence: I knew two drug dealers in high school. They both stopped because their buddies were arrested, and lives ruined. For direct evidence to answer the question "is punishment a deterrent" (I find it hard to believe this is an argument), see California Prop 47 [4]. [1] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [2] https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-09-21/from-lemons-to-cabs-drug-cartels-expand-across-the-mexican-economy.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-09-21/f... [3] https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-secures-74-billion-settlement-purdue-pharma-and-sackler-family-role https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-... [4] https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/prop-47-36-california-19824568.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/prop-47-36-califor...
Quarrelsome 6mo ago
Deterrents assume criminals make good decisions though. While deterrents matter for career criminals who have the experience to make good choices about their crimes, I think they're almost entirely ineffective against initial offenders.
- nomel 6mo ago
  Is the argument here that punishment isn't a deterrent for crime?

by nomel 6mo ago

jmyeet 6mo ago

The uS has 4% of the world's population but 25% of the world's prison population. We have a higher rate of incarceration than, say, Russia or Iran [1]. If deterrants worked, why do these incidents keep happening? Why isn't this the safest country on Earth? Poverty costs all of us but rather than lifting people out of poverty, we'd rather spend way more on the prison-industrial complex, slavery 2.0 (ie convict leasing) and law enforcement. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera...

nomel 6mo ago
You're putting too much meaning into that data. Look at the low numbers in Africa. Is it because they elevate their criminals out of poverty? Maybe their police have good relationships with the community? Maybe they're good at re-habilitating convicted criminals in prison? Or maybe it's counseling to heal generational trauma? Nope. Strong deterrent of immediate mob justice: https://www.dw.com/en/mob-justice-in-africa-why-people-take-the-law-into-their-own-hands/a-19238120 https://www.dw.com/en/mob-justice-in-africa-why-people-take-... Obviously, stoning all the criminals isn't the solution, but having society rigidly define acceptable bounds of behavior that get you removed from that society if crossed (temporarily or permanently), isn't unreasonable. To understand that high number in the US, I think you would have to look at who is in prison, and what they did, to understand. Good luck. They collect the data in a way so you can't do a multivariate analysis, because that would be unethical!
- dullcrisp 6mo ago
  That’s a fair point about Africa, but is Europe also contributing another 25%? Or is that also a lawless place?
  - nomel 6mo ago
    I don't know, we would have to look at the data. Again, due to ethical concerns, they don't record or report the data in a way where more meaningful conclusions can be made. I think many many things contribute to the difference in imprisonment. But, federal imprisonment is 42% drug charges [1]. Just looking at that, US has a cartel run country, with a near 20% GDP based on drug trafficking [2], at its poorly controlled border, with a whole continent below that containing exactly zero first world countries, some having > 40% GDP from drug trafficking! I've walked across the Mexican border. I've seen caravans of cars driving across. It's near fiction. Now, try to smuggle some drugs into an inner European country! Or, alternatively, just hop over to Amsterdam to avoid your countries laws. And, we also have the benefit of corporations fueling drug epidemics [3]. Is that imprisonment a deterrent? I didn't look up numbers, but have some useless anecdotal evidence: I knew two drug dealers in high school. They both stopped because their buddies were arrested, and lives ruined. For direct evidence to answer the question "is punishment a deterrent" (I find it hard to believe this is an argument), see California Prop 47 [4]. [1] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen... [2] https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-09-21/from-lemons-to-cabs-drug-cartels-expand-across-the-mexican-economy.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-09-21/f... [3] https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-secures-74-billion-settlement-purdue-pharma-and-sackler-family-role https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-... [4] https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/prop-47-36-california-19824568.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/prop-47-36-califor...

Quarrelsome 6mo ago

Deterrents assume criminals make good decisions though. While deterrents matter for career criminals who have the experience to make good choices about their crimes, I think they're almost entirely ineffective against initial offenders.

nomel 6mo ago
Is the argument here that punishment isn't a deterrent for crime?