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> Prediction markets don't have any "natural" reason like that for excluding insider trading. No, they have a different reason. Consider the consequences of a
by vkou 6mo ago
> Prediction markets don't have any "natural" reason like that for excluding insider trading.
No, they have a different reason. Consider the consequences of a sufficiently large prediction market bet on whether or not <head of state> will be assassinated this year.
Consider also the consequences of insiders and decisionmakers having an immediate financial incentive to take the other side of a bet whose outcome they control.
- miohtama 6mo agoIt's called assassination markets. There is a RFC on Bitcoin talk from 2011 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26350.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26350.0
- vkou 6mo agoWhen the pot gets big enough, there is no difference between a prediction market and an assassination market.